Just thought I'd open this to the floor

[ToadBrother]

Perhaps you're right, but we have seen governments with mandates take big steps in the early years of the administration.

Yup, and then spend the next half of their term finding ways to backpedal or buy off the voters they pissed off with the big sweeping changes.

[ToadBrother]

Secondly, it might be possible that not calling people who use cell-phones only may ironically make polls more accurate. The reason for that is that those who do not possess a land line (i.e. cell phone only) are statistically less likely to vote (e.g. in the younger demographics). Simply saying "I support party X" doesn't really reflect how an election will go if you don't go out and cast your ballot.

And let us all remember that elections produce a considerable amount of volatility, and it's hardly unheard of in most democracies to have had parties who thought they had it in the bag by positive public and internal polls to have been squashed on voting day. We can't be quite sure how the dynamic will work. We know how Harper, Layton and Duceppe will function during an election, but I think Iggy as a campaigner is still something of an unknown. Now that may mean he falls flat on his face and the Tories dance to a narrow majority, or it could mean that he does well, and the Liberals either replace the Tories as the minority government, or at the very least maintains the status quo. My bets go with the latter. I think, barring something unforeseen, that an election at this juncture will simply return us the same damned Parliament, plus or minus some seats here or there, which means the same problems, the same issues, the same leaders, same same same. That's why I doubt there's going to be an election.

[segnosaur]

Secondly, it might be possible that not calling people who use cell-phones only may ironically make polls more accurate. The reason for that is that those who do not possess a land line (i.e. cell phone only) are statistically less likely to vote

And let us all remember that elections produce a considerable amount of volatility, and it's hardly unheard of in most democracies to have had parties who thought they had it in the bag by positive public and internal polls to have been squashed on voting day. We can't be quite sure how the dynamic will work....

Yeah, I agree about the volatility. But then, the poster that I was originally responding to wasn't saying "I ignore polls because the voting population is volatile", he was concentrating on the effect of cell phones vs. land lines only.