Rigged Polls

maplesyrup · June 13, 2004

There is a paper in the Windsor area called the Windsor Star that is going around stating that there is this huge surge of support, according to their polls, for one particular party. And it is not true

CPAC just interviewed some Windsor residents and they say it is a crock. The Windsor residents siad they would like to know the details about the polls, and that the Winsdor Star polls are nonsense, unless they did all their polling on purpose in a certain area.

The purpose here is not to dump on the Windsor Star, in particular, but to more question what is really going on with these polling companies.

I am beginning to think they might be rigged especially after that rogue poll by Ipsos-Reid.

My question is: "Are they all rogue pollls?"

In other words: " Are they all rigged?" :rolleyes:

I am beginning to think they are.

And the amazing thing is that the CPAC reporters have not been able to find one supporter for the supposed party that according to the Windsor Star, is surging in the polls. This is getting intriguing. :rolleyes:

Slavik44 · June 13, 2004

no and yes...it is not like they are going out and saying okay well conservatives are at 43% today and oh lets give the liberals 29% the bloc 15%, the green 12%, and the NDP 1%.

Now could they make comprimises on their sample group? yes.

willy · June 13, 2004

Now could they make comprimises on their sample group? yes

How so?

Do you know of a technique that they use to manipulate the outcome?

Slavik44 · June 13, 2004

Now could they make comprimises on their sample group? yes

How so?

Do you know of a technique that they use to manipulate the outcome?

"The media polls that are driving this election may contain hidden flaws, veteran pollster Angus Reid warns.

Reid says that a combination of factors – including reduced media budgets for polling and the increasing reluctance of Canadians to talk to pollsters – could be harming the reliability of election polls.

He's particularly worried about the growing tendency of many Canadians to screen their phone calls and refuse to talk to pollsters – which can mean that a pollster has to make 10,000 phone calls to complete 1,000 interviews.

Such high refusal rates not only increase the cost of polling, but they may mean that pollsters end up interviewing people who are not representative of the general public.

"It's the big dirty secret of the industry," Reid said."

uhmm..no not specifically but eh? as i said, it certianly is possibley that they make COMPRIMISES on their selection.

this does nto neccasarily indicate intent as you may have thought i ment, but it does indicate that the sample group may be slightly dirty.

maplesyrup · June 13, 2004

Slavik44.....thanks for posting that article about Angus Reid's comments.

I guess polling companies are just like any other industry, or grouping, where you have the good, the bad, and the ugly.

I would imagine it might be quite tempting to rig the polls, especially if the price is right. I mean, whose to know, eh?

willy · June 13, 2004

I guess polling companies are just like any other business industry, where you have the good, the bad, and the ugly.

maplesyrup, I don't know if that assertion can be implied by this article.

The pollsters are having a hard time getting a valid sample. The selection process is not random if your refusal rate goes to high. This is a problem for all polls.

It is hard to tell what the bias would be because of this.

maplesyrup · June 13, 2004

Willy.....you are correct. And I am not inferring anything either about anyone or any company.

It's just that there has been for example a rogue poll, within the past week or so, everybody has pretty much acknowleged it (you know that 19/20 times accurate stuff), so just wondering about how mistakes are made. Maybe these polls are not as accurate as we like to think they are. Especially when they go down for the team you are rooting for, that's for sure.

willy · June 13, 2004

To add to the confusion:

These polls when done right reflect general public opinion. They don't reflect who votes. When voter turn out drops, the polls become even less accurate as indicators of actual support.

For example, the NDP is supported disproportional by younger people and women but they are less likely to vote. The challenge then becomes two fold, get them to support you and then you need to get them to vote.

Good luck maplesyrup.

Slavik44 · June 13, 2004

To add to the confusion:
These polls when done right reflect general public opinion. They don't reflect who votes. When voter turn out drops, the polls become even less accurate as indicators of actual support.

For example, the NDP is supported disproportional by younger people and women but they are less likely to vote. The challenge then becomes two fold, get them to support you and then you need to get them to vote.

Good luck maplesyrup.

actually it is the liberals you gotta be carefull about they have the weakest core support as under 60% of liberal voters are guranteed to vote liberal. and 50% of voters under 25 say they will vote liberal.....

August1991 · June 13, 2004

Quebec, utterly self-obsessed, has been down this path before. Quebecers love talking about themselves (Faut se parler!) and polling is obvious.

First, polling firms have no interest in playing around with numbers. Their reputation makes their profit. Everyone knows which guy accurately predicted the final result.

Second, no answers. Or answers, but doesn't vote. The issue here is whether the supporters of one party are more inclined not to declare or not to vote. If all party supporters do the same, it's a non-issue. In Quebec, pollsters have refined this correction to a high art.

In Canada? I'd say potential Liberal voters are under-represented in phone polls (they don't answer) but potential Liberal voters also don't bother to vote. Overall? A wash.

The first factor is probably less important than the second so I mentally lower all Liberal percentages by a 2-3%. Historically, that's the typical difference between Liberal polls and Liberals votes.