New North Korean Leader conference

[Post To The Left]

In Pyongyang on 28 September there will be a conference of the WPK [Workers Party of Korea] for electing its supreme leadership. The last time this conference was held was decades ago when Kim Jong-il was announced to be the next in succession. It is thought that the Dynastic communist regime will appoint Jung's son Kim Jong-un as the next leader. In true form to this hermit kingdom almost NOTHING is known about his son including his age (maybe 26 or 27).

But there are reports he spent time at a boarding school in Switzerland. How could anyone who lived for anytime in Switzerland continue the total incompetence of the North Korean State that has killed millions?

If the next generation does come to power how will he change the State?

[RNG]

In Pyongyang on 28 September there will be a conference of the WPK [Workers Party of Korea] for electing its supreme leadership. The last time this conference was held was decades ago when Kim Jong-il was announced to be the next in succession. It is thought that the Dynastic communist regime will appoint Jung's son Kim Jong-un as the next leader. In true form to this hermit kingdom almost NOTHING is known about his son including his age (maybe 26 or 27).

But there are reports he spent time at a boarding school in Switzerland. How could anyone who lived for anytime in Switzerland continue the total incompetence of the North Korean State that has killed millions?

If the next generation does come to power how will he change the State?

It's pretty clear that Kim Jong Un is coming to power. An article by the AP on the CTV news website claims various "experts" on N Korea don't expect any changes at all after the transition.

Full story: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20100929/north-korea-son-100929/

[ToadBrother]

But there are reports he spent time at a boarding school in Switzerland. How could anyone who lived for anytime in Switzerland continue the total incompetence of the North Korean State that has killed millions?

There were no lack during the 1960s and 1970s of African dictators who had gone to Oxford and other illustrious schools.

[ToadBrother]

It's pretty clear that Kim Jong Un is coming to power. An article by the AP on the CTV news website claims various "experts" on N Korea don't expect any changes at all after the transition.

Full story: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20100929/north-korea-son-100929/

I'm sure there won't be. As much as Kim Jong Il is the face of the North Korean regime, the real power lies with the generals, and they wouldn't permit anyone who didn't fit within their own strategies to gain power. Dictatorships are funny things that way, the politics often pushed behind the curtain, but never the less still ever-present.

[nicky10013]

I'm sure there won't be. As much as Kim Jong Il is the face of the North Korean regime, the real power lies with the generals, and they wouldn't permit anyone who didn't fit within their own strategies to gain power. Dictatorships are funny things that way, the politics often pushed behind the curtain, but never the less still ever-present.

I'd honestly say that up until 2 years ago, the power really did lay with Kim Jong-Il. He was very much an absolutely dictator. His decline in health probably gave the military more of a say. Apparently there's been a power sharing agreement between Kim Jong Un and the military.

[RNG]

Something that many news stories have reference but I'm not sure of the significance is that Il's 64 YO sister was also promoted to the same rank of general as Un. The generals may have the power, but two biggies are family now.

[Post To The Left]

Something that many news stories have reference but I'm not sure of the significance is that Il's 64 YO sister was also promoted to the same rank of general as Un. The generals may have the power, but two biggies are family now.

Good point and her husband is supposedly powerful within the regime and buddy buddy with Kim Jong-Il. So its not really the son that is next in line but a combination of the son and his Aunt and Uncle (Kim Jong-Il's sister and brother-in-law)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11297747

Edited September 30, 2010 by Post To The Left

[Post To The Left]

There were no lack during the 1960s and 1970s of African dictators who had gone to Oxford and other illustrious schools.

Very good point. But how do they live with themselves? Taiwanese, South Korean dictators could justify their corrupt, oppressive rule to their countries and maybe even to themselves because they were fighting communism. But regimes like Myanmar and North Korea where they know of the outside world and how their countries suck but they hang on to power ... for the sake enriching themselves and hanging on to power at the expense of their own people!

[nicky10013]

Very good point. But how do they live with themselves? Taiwanese, South Korean dictators could justify their corrupt, oppressive rule to their countries and maybe even to themselves because they were fighting communism. But regimes like Myanmar and North Korea where they know of the outside world and how their countries suck but they hang on to power ... for the sake enriching themselves and hanging on to power at the expense of their own people!

It`s how you grow up. This kid obviously grew up in a state where this excess was normal. Unfortunately it`s obviously going to be normal for him.

As for the kid himself, NK has released the first official photographs of him.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/30/north-korea-photo-kim-jong-un?ref=nf

[wyly]

it's premature to suggest things will remain the same if Jr assumes power, it may stay the same, it may get worse, or it may improve...

who would've expected hardliner Yuri Andropov the head of the Soviet Union KGB was planning reform and selected Gorbachev to carry on reforms...even in extreme governments(think nazi germany) there are sane people who keep their thoughts to to themselves until the time is right/safe...

[ToadBrother]

Very good point. But how do they live with themselves? Taiwanese, South Korean dictators could justify their corrupt, oppressive rule to their countries and maybe even to themselves because they were fighting communism. But regimes like Myanmar and North Korea where they know of the outside world and how their countries suck but they hang on to power ... for the sake enriching themselves and hanging on to power at the expense of their own people!

Lord Action said it best: "Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely."

[nicky10013]

it's premature to suggest things will remain the same if Jr assumes power, it may stay the same, it may get worse, or it may improve...

who would've expected hardliner Yuri Andropov the head of the Soviet Union KGB was planning reform and selected Gorbachev to carry on reforms...even in extreme governments(think nazi germany) there are sane people who keep their thoughts to to themselves until the time is right/safe...

I think you're right, that we can never know what he'll do until he does it. However, if the reporting is right that it'll be a joint military/Kim family rule, I don't think we can expect much to change. Just as in the USSR, the military was the biggest opponent to change. I don't see any reason why it would be different this time.

Kim Il-Sung certainly learned the lesson from the USSR. There was no heir after Stalin to continue on Stalinism. Stalin's legacy was (respectfully) thrown in the garbage and the political terror apparatus taken apart which eventually led to the collapse. They've learned from history.

[wyly]

I think you're right, that we can never know what he'll do until he does it. However, if the reporting is right that it'll be a joint military/Kim family rule, I don't think we can expect much to change. Just as in the USSR, the military was the biggest opponent to change. I don't see any reason why it would be different this time.

Kim Il-Sung certainly learned the lesson from the USSR. There was no heir after Stalin to continue on Stalinism. Stalin's legacy was (respectfully) thrown in the garbage and the political terror apparatus taken apart which eventually led to the collapse. They've learned from history.

there could even be a faction in the military waiting for the opportunity to oust the royal family, it's happened in other countries...

I wonder what a western education may have done for Jrs perspective on life, he's quite aware of how good life can be and could be in his own country as well...

Edited September 30, 2010 by wyly

[ToadBrother]

there could even be a faction in the military waiting for the opportunity to oust the royal family, it's happened in other countries...

In this case, I think not. There's too much invested in Kim Il-sung. The whole apparatus of NK; it's government, it's military, hell even it's nuclear ambitions, is built on top of Kim Il-sung's legacy. They need a Kim, it's clear that they and Kim Jong-il have been negotiating for the last few years over which one of his kids was the most suitable. I'm sure this fellow was picked precisely because he was what both parties felt would best support the status quo.

I wonder what a western education may have done for Jrs perspective on life, he's quite aware of how good life can be and could be in his own country as well...

The Kims already live in the lap of luxury as it is. I'm sure he will care as much about the wellbeing of the North Koreans as his father does and his grandfather did.

[Post To The Left]

In this case, I think not. There's too much invested in Kim Il-sung. The whole apparatus of NK; it's government, it's military, hell even it's nuclear ambitions, is built on top of Kim Il-sung's legacy. They need a Kim, it's clear that they and Kim Jong-il have been negotiating for the last few years over which one of his kids was the most suitable. I'm sure this fellow was picked precisely because he was what both parties felt would best support the status quo.

Defectors from North Korea have talked about coups happening before:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/north-korea-coup-fuels-security-fears-defectors-story-of-failed-military-takeover-adds-to-speculation-over-pyongyangs-regional-ambitions-1463444.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8367395.stm

So it's not totally impossible. That said, I'm sure whatever elements tried to take over, their families and anyone remotely connected to them have been liquidated.

[ToadBrother]

Defectors from North Korea have talked about coups happening before:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/north-korea-coup-fuels-security-fears-defectors-story-of-failed-military-takeover-adds-to-speculation-over-pyongyangs-regional-ambitions-1463444.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8367395.stm

So it's not totally impossible. That said, I'm sure whatever elements tried to take over, their families and anyone remotely connected to them have been liquidated.

What counts in NK is the loyalty of the Army. As I said, regimes like NK are often very fluid under the surface, even if they appear opaque to outside eyes. As long as the Army, or at least the most powerful elements, are willing to go along with the Kim Dynasty, it will last, and as I said, NK has been heavily personified for decades in the form of the Kims. It's that delicate balancing act that many dictatorships walk.

[nicky10013]

there could even be a faction in the military waiting for the opportunity to oust the royal family, it's happened in other countries...

I wonder what a western education may have done for Jrs perspective on life, he's quite aware of how good life can be and could be in his own country as well...

One school of thought is they go to school, learn and then come back to attempt reforms. The other is they go, learn, and learn from the other side of history. They learn from the past mistakes of authoritarian regimes to help ensure they don't happen again.

[wyly]

What counts in NK is the loyalty of the Army. As I said, regimes like NK are often very fluid under the surface, even if they appear opaque to outside eyes. As long as the Army, or at least the most powerful elements, are willing to go along with the Kim Dynasty, it will last, and as I said, NK has been heavily personified for decades in the form of the Kims. It's that delicate balancing act that many dictatorships walk

occasionally we see armies turn their backs on the political old guard and refuse to continue the old way, warsaw pact, libya, venezuela, philippines and instead choose to follow a new direction...

[wyly]

Defectors from North Korea have talked about coups happening before:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/north-korea-coup-fuels-security-fears-defectors-story-of-failed-military-takeover-adds-to-speculation-over-pyongyangs-regional-ambitions-1463444.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8367395.stm

So it's not totally impossible. That said, I'm sure whatever elements tried to take over, their families and anyone remotely connected to them have been liquidated.

it takes balls to attempt a coup failure is not an option, I expect if change happens in N Korea either it I'll come from Jr or if it's coup it'll require wiping out the ruling family like in Romania..