Harper to call four By-Elections.

[Mr.Canada]

Stephen Harper is expected to call by-elections as early as Sunday to fill four vacancies in the House of Commons, the clearest signal yet that the federal Conservatives don't want – or expect – a general election this fall.

Source

Well lets hope that PM Harper can get his vote out this time. I'm sure that the Tories will be able to win the BC seat and should make the NS seat a close reality. Who knows maybe they can even pull off the Quebec seats but I wouldn't count on it.

2 more seats out of a possible 4 isn't bad at all.

[madmax]

Well lets hope that PM Harper can get his vote out this time. I'm sure that the Tories will be able to win the BC seat and should make the NS seat a close reality. Who knows maybe they can even pull off the Quebec seats but I wouldn't count on it.

2 more seats out of a possible 4 isn't bad at all.

IIRC the last time Harper had 3 By Elections on the go, and as they were going down the tubes for the CPC and the CPC weren't going to win one of them, particularly Guelph where they pulled every stunt in the books and undermined democracy to boot, the CPC decided to pull the plug and let the 3 By elections run into a General Election where the optics would be better then 3 straight losses.

[Mr.Canada]

IIRC the last time Harper had 3 By Elections on the go, and as they were going down the tubes for the CPC and the CPC weren't going to win one of them, particularly Guelph where they pulled every stunt in the books and undermined democracy to boot, the CPC decided to pull the plug and let the 3 By elections run into a General Election where the optics would be better then 3 straight losses.

Bill Casey's old riding has been a Tory riding almost entirely only going Liberal one in 1993-1997. It's been Tory ever since so I don't see that changing, it's pretty safe for Harper. Before that the riding was a Tory riding being held by Robert Coates from 1957-88. Won by Bill Casey in 1988 then lost briefly in 1993-1997 before being held by Casey ever since. I don't think there's much of a case to be made here.

The BC riding is going to be battle. The past 2 elections the NDP won it by a small margin over the Tories so it can be won by the Tories for sure. It's going to depend on which party gets its vote out the best. As is usually the custom when speaking of by-elections as in general turnout is low. So far the NDP is doing a great job on the ground so I'll give them the edge so far.

The 2 Quebec ridings will go BQ and I'd be shocked if they didn't, I don't think their is much room for argument there.

[punked]

Bill Casey's old riding has been a Tory riding almost entirely only going Liberal one in 1993-1997. It's been Tory ever since so I don't see that changing, it's pretty safe for Harper. Before that the riding was a Tory riding being held by Robert Coates from 1957-88. Won by Bill Casey in 1988 then lost briefly in 1993-1997 before being held by Casey ever since. I don't think there's much of a case to be made here.

The BC riding is going to be battle. The past 2 elections the NDP won it by a small margin over the Tories so it can be won by the Tories for sure. It's going to depend on which party gets its vote out the best. As is usually the custom when speaking of by-elections as in general turnout is low. So far the NDP is doing a great job on the ground so I'll give them the edge so far.

The 2 Quebec ridings will go BQ and I'd be shocked if they didn't, I don't think their is much room for argument there.

Two of the four riddings that make up Bill Casey's riddings right now are NDP. The Conservatives kicked Casey out of the caucus and broke the Atlantic Accord while doing it. The NDP have Mark Austin running who has very impressive business credentials, holds a Masters Degree in International Law of Human Rights, is the grandson of a Springhill coal miner, a cancer survivor, and a member of numerous community groups. Who the Conservatives and Liberals wanted to run for them. Could be very very close here.

[Hydraboss]

...Mark Austin running who has very impressive business credentials, holds a Masters Degree in International Law of Human Rights, is the grandson of a Springhill coal miner, a cancer survivor, and a member of numerous community groups.

(to paraphrase a commercial)...didn't he also invent gravy, free a million billion trillion refugees, write the dictionary, and drive an eco-friendly hovercraft powered by the laughter of children? Should be a shoe in.

[punked]

(to paraphrase a commercial)...didn't he also invent gravy, free a million billion trillion refugees, write the dictionary, and drive an eco-friendly hovercraft powered by the laughter of children? Should be a shoe in.

Just sayin he is a great candidate.

[Hydraboss]

Just sayin he is a great candidate.

I know, I was just poking at you. It always amazes me, though, how things so totally unrelated to politics are played on (ie. cancer survivor). This does not make him a better candidate, but the "pull the heartstrings" thing does seem to have influence on some voters.

[August1991]

Who knows maybe they can even pull off the Quebec seats but I wouldn't count on it.

The two Quebec seats are Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup and Hochelaga.

The Tories will never win Hochelaga. It`s in east end Montreal. Even under Mulroney, it was Liberal. (OTOH, it once had a Liberal deputy who got into an argument with Trudeau and switched PC. He lost in 1979. That kind of riding.)

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup is another story. This is roughly Mario Dumont`s riding. I don`t think the Tories will win it but I would be interested to see the numbers. People in such ridings turn out whether it`s a partial election or a general. The Tory results there will be a measure of how Harper is doing - post Coderre - in Quebec.

Lastly, I think that Harper is thinking tactically in calling these byelections. He is signalling that he does not expect or want a general election.

Now then, if a general election happens, he is not responsible.

Edited October 4, 2009 by August1991

[jdobbin]

It always amazes me, though, how things so totally unrelated to politics are played on (ie. cancer survivor).

Having cancer played a part in the ADQ campaign. It was considered a negative in a move that some said was something so low that it is generally is not used in even the most ugly campaigns around the world.

[jdobbin]

Lastly, I think that Harper is thinking tactically in calling these byelections. He is signalling that he does not expect or want a general election.

The only way he can get an election before then in this coming week by inserting poison into a confidence bill. A few pollsters have indicated that it would likely reduce Tory fortunes by acting so belligerently.

The by-elections have to be called by law in some cases. I'm sure if he could play a game with them he would just as he did in Guelph. Guess he could do that while the by-elections are in progress.

I don't think the Liberals will win any of the seats. I do think the Tories have to win Nova Scotia or some questions might be raised. I'm not quite sure why they are saying they don't expect to win except to play down expectations.

[Mr.Canada]

The only way he can get an election before then in this coming week by inserting poison into a confidence bill. A few pollsters have indicated that it would likely reduce Tory fortunes by acting so belligerently.

The by-elections have to be called by law in some cases. I'm sure if he could play a game with them he would just as he did in Guelph. Guess he could do that while the by-elections are in progress.

I don't think the Liberals will win any of the seats. I do think the Tories have to win Nova Scotia or some questions might be raised. I'm not quite sure why they are saying they don't expect to win except to play down expectations.

The Tories don't need to do anything. Ignatieff and the Liberals have been doing a great job sinking themselves.

[jdobbin]

The Tories don't need to do anything. Ignatieff and the Liberals have been doing a great job sinking themselves.

So long time seat Tory seat going to someone other than a Tory won't say anything about Harper?

[punked]

So long time seat Tory seat going to someone other than a Tory won't say anything about Harper?

I don't think the Liberals have a shot at it. Provincially they have been acting like babies in NS I do think the NDP can win in it. I think we have a good shot at 2 of the four seats and a long shot at 3. I like those odds.

[Mr.Canada]

I don't think the Liberals have a shot at it. Provincially they have been acting like babies in NS I do think the NDP can win in it. I think we have a good shot at 2 of the four seats and a long shot at 3. I like those odds.

Sure the NDP has a shot at it but I don't really believe they'll win the N.S seat. The best shots the NDP have is the one in Montreal and in BC. Who knows though, anything is possible I guess.

[August1991]

Sure the NDP has a shot at it but I don't really believe they'll win the N.S seat. The best shots the NDP have is the one in Montreal and in BC. Who knows though, anything is possible I guess.

The NDP won't win in Hochelaga - that will stay safely Bloc.

Rivière-du-Loup is another story:

If there is a big upset on Nov. 9, it will be in the Quebec seat of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup. Last year, the Conservatives finished second with a respectable 30 per cent of the vote – in spite of a disastrous Quebec campaign and against a popular incumbent.

For this rematch, Harper has recruited Bernard Généreux, a popular local mayor with strong ties to the provincial Liberals. Until last spring, then-ADQ leader Mario Dumont, a Harper ally, represented the area in the national assembly. After almost two decades, there is local fatigue with opposition politics. Last June, the provincial riding went to the ruling Liberals in a by-election.

Chantal Hébert

By-elections are funny beasts and I wouldn't call them a game-changer. But I agree with Hébert that this riding in Quebec is one to watch but I still don`t think the Tories will win it.

The only way he can get an election before then in this coming week by inserting poison into a confidence bill. A few pollsters have indicated that it would likely reduce Tory fortunes by acting so belligerently.

The temptation for Harper to do this must be tremendous. It`s a question of picking the right poison pill - and that puts Harper in the driver`s seat. Edited October 7, 2009 by August1991

[Guest Mark Austin]

Hi. Mark Austin here (inventor of gravy and NDP candidate in CCMV).

Just a correction: the Provincial NDP won 3 of 5 seats that make up the federal CCMV riding.

The cancer survival bit is not on my c.v. and I rarely even think about it. It does give me empathy with other cancer fighters 'though.

It is nice, however, to finally get some recognition for gravy as I know it has brought joy to millions.