Ontario Voting Pattern

August1991 · May 7, 2004

With 106 seats on offer, Ontario matters. But I suspect nowhere else in Canada is the electorate so undecided. What are the best case/worst case scenarios?

These were the 2000 Federal Election results for vote % (seats):

Lib 51.4 (100)

CA 23.6 (2)

PC 14.5 (0)

NDP 8.3 (1)

Other 2.2 (0)

These were the 2003 Provincial Election results:

Lib 46.4 (72)

PC 34.6 (24)

NDP 14.7 (7)

Other 4.3 (0)

This is the most recent (27 Apr) Ekos Research poll (very small sample):

Lib 47

CPC 33

NDP 18

Other 2

Now lastly, look at the 1979 Federal Election results:

Lib 36.4 (32)

PC 41.8 (57)

NDP 21.1 (6)

Other 0.7 (0)

I suspect that the current extra boost to the NDP will not translate into seats. On the other hand, the Liberal sweep of the 2000 Federal Election is impossible. The recent Ekos poll mirrors the provincial election.

Bottom line, the Tories will get at least 20 or so seats. On the flip side, the Liberals are guaranteed some 35 or so seats, as in 1979.

For the remainder, all depends on how Ontario voters perceive the Martin Liberals and Stephen Harper during the campaign. (This means about 10% of them changing their mind either way.)

BigGunner · May 7, 2004

I don't know Ontario well, but from what I have been told, the NDP and Conservatives have bastions of support. Since the NDP has returned to more traditional levels of support, this will inevitibly lead to a seat gain.

The NDP and Cons. have support concentrations that would make their votes far more efficient than the liberals - which tend to be spread more evenly.

If the NDP has support concentrated in the big citices and the north and the Cons. have support concentrated in the "905" belt, you *might* see a result that mirrors kinda the provincial result from last year.

but then, I don't live there.

August1991 · May 8, 2004

I don't know Ontario well, but from what I have been told, the NDP and Conservatives have bastions of support.

I don't know Ontario that well either (but I know it much better than BC...) Your usage of "bastions of support" is medieval. Is a modern election siege warfare?

I understand the same thing: the NDP is concentrated in pockets making some seats possible. But this doesn't mean new NDP supporters are similarly concentrated. Compare the recent 2003 provincial election and the 1979 federal election. The extra votes don't translate into seats. I suspect that many people opt for the NDP in ridings where the NDP candidate can't win.

Where are the Tory "bastions"? Do they exist? Dunno. And what's the "905" region? It strikes me as a lot of people busy with life and vaguely aware there is an election. They prefer the status quo. Am I wrong? Do these people even vote?

Incidentally, I thought the 1979 Federal Election a good baseline. Newcomer, Western, untried Tory leader against older, Quebec, tired Liberal leader.

If Martin goes into free fall (very unlikely), the story changes considerably. In my travels to various parts of Canada, I have found southern Ontario people to be the most fad-obsessed. But I don't think Martin will be tagged with "uncool".

BigGunner · May 8, 2004

I don't know Ontario well, but from what I have been told, the NDP and Conservatives have bastions of support.
I don't know Ontario that well either (but I know it much better than BC...) Your usage of "bastions of support" is medieval. Is a modern election siege warfare?
I understand the same thing: the NDP is concentrated in pockets making some seats possible. But this doesn't mean new NDP supporters are similarly concentrated. Compare the recent 2003 provincial election and the 1979 federal election. The extra votes don't translate into seats. I suspect that many people opt for the NDP in ridings where the NDP candidate can't win.

Where are the Tory "bastions"? Do they exist? Dunno. And what's the "905" region? It strikes me as a lot of people busy with life and vaguely aware there is an election. They prefer the status quo. Am I wrong? Do these people even vote?

Incidentally, I thought the 1979 Federal Election a good baseline. Newcomer, Western, untried Tory leader against older, Quebec, tired Liberal leader.

If Martin goes into free fall (very unlikely), the story changes considerably. In my travels to various parts of Canada, I have found southern Ontario people to be the most fad-obsessed. But I don't think Martin will be tagged with "uncool".

To qualify my comments a little better, the "905" belt is the area code of Ontario that rings the outside environs of Toronto. Semi-rural, small and medium sized towns, etc.

Bastions/pockets of support, or "regional concentrations" is a better term. Sorta like BC, where the NDP has massive support on the Island, and the Liberals clean up in the Okanagan (birthplace of BC Social Credit party).

If there is any indication, the party support in Ontario might follow the trend of the provincial election, and polls seem to indicate that thus far.

falling leaf · May 11, 2004

Biggunner

where the NDP has massive support on the Island, and the Liberals clean up in the Okanagan (birthplace of BC Social Credit party.

I don't think they have that much support in B.C . (NDP)

They have only 2 in the House. hahahahaha

The Okanagan is not liberal country either. hahahaha .

Its Tory country, like Alberta.

I live there!

BigGunner · May 11, 2004

Biggunner
where the NDP has massive support on the Island, and the Liberals clean up in the Okanagan (birthplace of BC Social Credit party.

I don't think they have that much support in B.C . (NDP)

They have only 2 in the House. hahahahaha

The Okanagan is not liberal country either. hahahaha .

Its Tory country, like Alberta.

I live there!

To help you a little, I was referring to the BC Liberal party under the hated Gordon Campbell....which still have massive support in the Okanagan area.

You are correct in identifying that the NDP has 2 seats, but today it leads the BC Liberals in all polls that have been done in the recent past.

FEDERALLY speaking, BC is a toss up, and yes the Okanagan area is likely to vote conservative...but polls have put the conservatives in third place in BC, which means they will lose seats elsewhere.

But then, this was a discussion about Ontario.

willy · May 11, 2004

Love Gordon Campbell. Good guy and they are making the tough decisions.

The labour movement has done a great job of smearing him. It is a shame and doesn't encourage quality people to get into public life.

One more term with Campbell and we will be a have province again. Yaa.

The latest poll showed a 9 point bump for the Conservatives in BC and that puts them back in the lead.

odie441 · May 11, 2004

Ontario voting patterns are always all over the board. Keep in mind, of the 106 seats in Ontario, 63 were won by the Liberals due to a vote split between the CA and the PC's. I live in a riding where the vote was split and the Liberal candidate won with 38% of the vote and the NDP had less than2%. Believe me, Ontarians were pissed last election but split down the middle and the Liberals cleaned up. The Libs always win the GTA because they cater to the immigrant vote as well as the left wing element that seem to thrive in the GTA. The first indication that the Libs are nervous is the smear campaign they are starting against Harper. No one of any sense will but into it, but thats how smug they have become. They feel it is their devine right to govern. Last king who thought that lost his head!