NDP narrowing the gap on the Conservatives

[maplesyrup]

Minority government probable: poll

The poll of 1,500 Canadians, which is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20, placed the Bloc at 46 per cent in Quebec, ahead of the Liberals' 34 per cent.

Elsewhere, the Liberals held healthy leads in Ontario and the Maritimes but were involved in tight races in British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The Conservatives held a commanding lead in Alberta.

I have been following the other recent polls, and the NDP has begun to narrow the gap with the Conservatives. The NDP is now within 9% of the Conservatives. If this trend continues, the centre leaning NDP are going to be seen as the main alternative to the governing right wing Liberals, and the NDP might be looking at official oposition status after the next election.

On the other hand, I am concerned that the Liberals appear to be very close to forming a majority government.

[BigGunner]

Minority government probable: poll

The poll of 1,500 Canadians, which is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points 19 times out of 20, placed the Bloc at 46 per cent in Quebec, ahead of the Liberals' 34 per cent.

Elsewhere, the Liberals held healthy leads in Ontario and the Maritimes but were involved in tight races in British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The Conservatives held a commanding lead in Alberta.

I have been following the other recent polls, and the NDP has begun to narrow the gap with the Conservatives. The NDP is now within 9% of the Conservatives. If this trend continues, the centre leaning NDP are going to be seen as the main alternative to the governing right wing Liberals, and the NDP might be looking at official oposition status after the next election.

On the other hand, I am concerned that the Liberals appear to be very close to forming a majority government.

You might be right on your assessment..

The conservatives are more competitive in Ontario, where the liberals still have a double digit lead.

The conservatives however are looking at a dramatic decline in support in the west.

The only place the cons have a commanding lead is Alberta. But Alberta is a one party state now.

In the other western provinces, the cons are tied or falling behind the NDP and liberals.

The unified vote of the PC and Alliance party in 2000 for the west was a stunning 60% of all votes. Today, according to SES Poll, they are at 35% region wide. This means a crushing defeat for many many conservatives.

Add that to coming from behind in Ontario, and the Cons could see a net loss for this election.

[maplesyrup]

Party/Apr04/Jun03/Aug01

Bloc 12% up 4%, 8%, 9%

Cons 26%, no cge, 26%, 26%

Libs 38%, down 17%, 55%, 48%

NDP 17%, up 7%, 10%, 9%

[BigGunner]

Its almost clear that the Conservatives have maxed out to a certain degree.

They have locked up the true blue right wing, christian fundamemtalist voter. Everyone else has fled.

In 1984, Mulroney won Quebec with a crushing 50% of the vote for the PC party. In 1988, they expanded their lead to 52% of the vote. The conservatives are just doomed without at least something from Quebec, and right now, they are in 4th place - behind the NDP.

[Alliance Fanatic]

I doubt the NDP will ever gain official opposition. By the way stop calling the Liberal's right wing, the Liberals are in fact left wing, they support taxpayer funded abortion, criminal rights, crappy defense funding, gay rights, and limiting free speech. The NDP is not centre, you guys did'nt even allow a free vote on gay marriage, so shut it.

[maplesyrup]

Leger Marketing Opinion Poll released April 27, 2004, based on 1,500 Canadians surveyed April 20-24, 2004 with a margin of error +/- 2.5%.

Canada

Bloc 12%

CPC 26%

Lib 38%

NDP 17%

Grn 5%

Oth 2%

Atlantic Region

CPC 27%

Lib 44%

NDP 21%

Oth 8%

Quebec

Bloc 46%

CPC 8%

Lib 34%

NDP 8%

Grn 3%

Oth 1%

Ontario

CPC 29%

Lib 46%

NDP 19%

Grn 4%

Oth 2%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba

CPC 31%

Lib 35%

NDP 25%

Grn 5%

Oth 4%

Alberta

CPC 60%

Lib 24%

NDP 14%

Grn 2%

British Columbia

CPC 23%

Lib 31%

NDP 29%

Grn 13%

Oth 3%

I guess University of Victoria political scientist Norm Ruff was dead on when in December, 2003, following the RCMP raids on the BC Legislature, he forecast large gains for the NDP in BC in the next federal election. My goodness, Cons at 23%, that's quite a meltdown.