Why do people keep talking about an NDP official oposition?

[Smallc]

I mean really, have they completely forgotten about the Bloc? Unless the Conservatives were to do really well in Quebec, a fall in the Liberal vote would probably mean a rise for the Bloc in some areas even if they had lower numbers over all.

I think that a BQ opposition may be a possibility, but I'm not sure if it really could be the NDP. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Argus]

I mean really, have they completely forgotten about the Bloc? Unless the Conservatives were to do really well in Quebec, a fall in the Liberal vote would probably mean a rise for the Bloc in some areas even if they had lower numbers over all.

I think that a BQ opposition may be a possibility, but I'm not sure if it really could be the NDP. Maybe I'm wrong.

I don't see the Liberals losing their hold on official opposition. They're going to get at least 40 seats in Ontario, at least a dozen in Quebec, and at least a dozen in Atlantic Canada. So you're looking at a bare minimum of maybe 65 seats. I don't think the NDP have ever had that many seats. In most ridings, the NDP could greatly increase their numbers and still not get elected. Usually they're well behind the Liberals and Tories. The Greens will be siphoning votes off them as well. As for the BQ, in order to become official opposition they'd need to nearly sweep Quebec, and it doesn't look like they're going to do that, with both Libs and Tories each takeing at least a dozen seats.

[Smallc]

I don't see the Liberals losing their hold on official opposition. They're going to get at least 40 seats in Ontario, at least a dozen in Quebec, and at least a dozen in Atlantic Canada. So you're looking at a bare minimum of maybe 65 seats. I don't think the NDP have ever had that many seats. In most ridings, the NDP could greatly increase their numbers and still not get elected. Usually they're well behind the Liberals and Tories. The Greens will be siphoning votes off them as well. As for the BQ, in order to become official opposition they'd need to nearly sweep Quebec, and it doesn't look like they're going to do that, with both Libs and Tories each takeing at least a dozen seats.

Based on the latest numbers, the Liberals would have under 50 seats according to many and would be about even with the NDP. The Bloc, facing a weakened Liberal party may be able to take a few in Quebec from them giving them more seats despite a possible smaller overall percentage of the vote. The only way this could be stopped is if the Conservatives have a good enough showing in Quebec. The Bloc has been the opposition before after all.

[independent]

Based on the latest numbers, the Liberals would have under 50 seats according to many and would be about even with the NDP. The Bloc, facing a weakened Liberal party may be able to take a few in Quebec from them giving them more seats despite a possible smaller overall percentage of the vote. The only way this could be stopped is if the Conservatives have a good enough showing in Quebec. The Bloc has been the opposition before after all.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php

Electionprediction has liberals at 72 seats, the NDP at 22 seats and 65 too close too call. I do not see NDP getting enough seats too become the opposition if their numbers are right . I do not know how accurate they are.

[Smallc]

http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php

Electionprediction has liberals at 72 seats, the NDP at 22 seats and 65 too close too call. I do not see NDP getting enough seats too become the opposition if their numbers are right . I do not know how accurate they are.

Given recent trends that seems incorrect. the conservative numbers seem too low and the Liberals too high as may polls have the Conservatives between 38 - 40% and the Liberals between 21 - 25% The NDP recently has been between 17 - 21% and the Bloc between 8 - 10%. Not saying that will be the outcome, but those are really the ranges of current numbers including those bye Nanos.

[independent]

Given recent trends that seems incorrect. the conservative numbers seem too low and the Liberals too high as may polls have the Conservatives between 38 - 40% and the Liberals between 21 - 25% The NDP recently has been between 17 - 21% and the Bloc between 8 - 10%. Not saying that will be the outcome, but those are really the ranges of current numbers including those bye Nanos.

Percentages are not an accurate account of seats. It depends on the distribution of the votes. Does anyone know how accurate electionpredictions.com is.

[Smallc]

Percentages are not an accurate account of seats. It depends on the distribution of the votes.

I realize that, but when on party is 20 points behind the other and below historic values and yet another is above historic values, it becomes a different story.

Edited September 28, 2008 by Smallc

[jdobbin]

I mean really, have they completely forgotten about the Bloc? Unless the Conservatives were to do really well in Quebec, a fall in the Liberal vote would probably mean a rise for the Bloc in some areas even if they had lower numbers over all.

I think that a BQ opposition may be a possibility, but I'm not sure if it really could be the NDP. Maybe I'm wrong.

The latest poll keeps showing the Tories falling back below majority.

http://www.winnipegsun.com/canadavotes/new...28/6911276.html

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Conservatives at 36 per cent support, compared to 25 per cent for the Liberals.

The NDP was at 19 per cent, with the Greens and Bloc Quebecois tied at nine.

The Tories and Liberals appeared to be in a horse race in vote-rich Ontario, while the Bloc Quebecois held a commanding lead in the key battleground of Quebec.

The Liberals are going to lose seats this election and the trend still looks bad. As you say it is a toss up. At the very beginning, I said the Bloc could keep things interesting. They will be interesting if the Tories can't somehow break the back of the Bloc in Quebec.

[independent]

I realize that, but when on party is 20 points behind the other and below historic values and yet another is above historic values, it becomes a different story.

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/projections.php

Notice has Con 144 Lib 89 NDP 32 BQ 41

I think the NDP seats in particular are largely consentrated in certain areas. I am not sure what Layton is excited about unless I am missing something.

[Smallc]

The latest poll keeps showing the Tories falling back below majority.

http://www.winnipegsun.com/canadavotes/new...28/6911276.html

The Liberals are going to lose seats this election and the trend still looks bad. As you say it is a toss up. At the very beginning, I said the Bloc could keep things interesting. They will be interesting if the Tories can't somehow break the back of the Bloc in Quebec.

Those numbers look good for the NDP and the Conservatives (though not majority territory). It would leave the Liberals as the opposition though. The Conservatives don't seem to be able to hold their large lead. I suppose it will really depend where the cycle is on voting day.

[independent]

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/projections.php

Notice has Con 144 Lib 89 NDP 32 BQ 41

I think the NDP seats in particular are largely consentrated in certain areas. I am not sure what Layton is excited about unless I am missing something.

http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

Trendlines.ca has con at 131 seat with 39%, Lib at 111 seats with 23% of the vote, BQ at 40 with 9% of the vote. NDP at 25 seats with 19% of the vote.

[jdobbin]

Those numbers look good for the NDP and the Conservatives (though not majority territory). It would leave the Liberals as the opposition though. The Conservatives don't seem to be able to hold their large lead. I suppose it will really depend where the cycle is on voting day.

I had the Liberals in Official Opposition in my prediction but had them losing badly overall. Surprisingly, and with no reason that I can see thus far, support from women seems to be firming up for the Liberals.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2008

The most recent Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll had 43 per cent of respondents reporting a positive impression of Harper, down 10 points since the start of the campaign, with Liberal rival Stephane Dion largely unchanged at 32 per cent.

Liberal support among urban women was at 29 per cent, up from a low of 25 per cent last week, and at 25 per cent among rural women, up from last week's low of 17 per cent.

Nationally, the Conservatives have continued to enjoy a sizable lead with the support of 37 per cent of respondents, followed by the Liberals at 24 per cent, the NDP 18 per cent, the Green Party 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.

[Smallc]

http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

Trendlines.ca has con at 131 seat with 39%, Lib at 111 seats with 23% of the vote, BQ at 40 with 9% of the vote. NDP at 25 seats with 19% of the vote.

I don't see the Liberals doing that well and I don't see the BQ and NDP doing that bad given the percentages. Its kind of funny how different predictors give different numbers. Their just like polls I guess...lol.

[Canadian Blue]

Depends, I wouldn't count the Liberals out yet. However I would put money on either a stronger Conservative minority/weak majority.

That being said alot of it will come down to Dion. I still can't get over the fact that he failed to utilize people like Warren Kinsella and Stephen LeDrew this election. Right now it looks like it could be a three way race for the opposition if Dion continues to campaign as he has for the past three weeks. If Jack Layton is able to become dominant in the debates I would say we'd be looking at an NDP opposition made up of extra strength from BC and Ontario.

[blueblood]

Depends, I wouldn't count the Liberals out yet. However I would put money on either a stronger Conservative minority/weak majority.

That being said alot of it will come down to Dion. I still can't get over the fact that he failed to utilize people like Warren Kinsella and Stephen LeDrew this election. Right now it looks like it could be a three way race for the opposition if Dion continues to campaign as he has for the past three weeks. If Jack Layton is able to become dominant in the debates I would say we'd be looking at an NDP opposition made up of extra strength from BC and Ontario.

Now that is scary scary...

[Pliny]

Now that you mention it..I think I will...nah...I don't think I will talk about it.

[Canadian Blue]

I'm more scared that the Liberals and Greens will cut some kind of deal right before the election, especially since Elizabeth May is open to having a coalition with them. If that were to happened it would be far worse than a NDP opposition.

[blueblood]

I'm more scared that the Liberals and Greens will cut some kind of deal right before the election, especially since Elizabeth May is open to having a coalition with them. If that were to happened it would be far worse than a NDP opposition.

That's if even the greens elect someone, Elizabeth May vs. Peter McKay???

[Smallc]

I'm more scared that the Liberals and Greens will cut some kind of deal right before the election, especially since Elizabeth May is open to having a coalition with them. If that were to happened it would be far worse than a NDP opposition.

I personally think that an NDP opposition would be a good thing as they would challenge the Conservatives and keep them honest (even though I don't agree with everything that the Federal NDP does). We need an opposition that will challenge the government, something the Liberals haven't been doing for over a year.

As the one who started this thread, I really don't expect an NDP official opposition, but I wouldn't really be opposed to it.

[Smallc]

That's if even the greens elect someone, Elizabeth May vs. Peter McKay???

I doubt they will elect a member.

[Canadian Blue]

I wouldn't mind an NDP opposition. I think if they were to become the opposition they would begin to moderate their policies to be more inline with most European social democratic parties such as the SDP and Labour Party. From the times I've seen the NDP in QP they always seemed to be more on the ball when it came to issues on the environment, forestry, and even Afghanistan, while the Liberals were asking the 20th question about Obamagate.

But like I said it's too early to say what'll happen. I'm gonna wait till after the debates to make any solid predictions. But if Dion doesn't preform well in either the english or french debates and Layton makes himself the primary attacker on the left it would be disasterous for the Liberals. As well the Green Party and Liberal's cozy relationship might come back to bite Dion in the ass, the reason being that May is prone to foot in mouth disease, plus when people actually read the Green platform they'll realize about a page through that it's utopic at best.