Do you think there will be a federal election this spring?

[windyman]

With the federal politics heating up with Afghanistan and the budget (which will be "slim" according to Jim Flaherty, our bankrupt finance minister), do you think there will be an election this spring (as early as mid-April)? Yes or no?

Edited February 12, 2008 by windyman

[maldon_road]

Do you think there will be a federal election this spring?

Of course. And it will occur before the Afghan vote - most probably the budget.

[Borg]

I wish you had also put in the poll:

Do you care?

Elections come and elections go - but political BS goes on forever.

Borg

[White Doors]

bankrupt finance minister?

can you explain please?

[oreodontist]

Of course. And it will occur before the Afghan vote - most probably the budget.

Agreed. If the Libs have decided to push for an election they won't support the budget and vote against an Afghan bill in that order.

[maldon_road]

Agreed. If the Libs have decided to push for an election they won't support the budget and vote against an Afghan bill in that order.

I don't think the Libs want to defeat the government on Afghanistan, too messy; that why, IMO, they will pull the pin on the budget.

[August1991]

The government could fall on Afghanistan, crime or the budget. It appears that the Liberals and Tories have come to an agreement on Afghanistan. The Liberals have walked out (abstained on) the crime bill. I suspect they'll do the same on the budget.

Look at the situation from Harper's perspective. At present, he can govern as long as at least one opposition party supports him. IOW, to defeat the government, all three would have to unite in a coalition. This is as close to a stable minority government as a PM could hope for. What's the alternative? If we go to an election now, the most Harper could hope for is to be PM in another minority government. It could possibly be a minority where the Libs and NDP together alone could defeat the Tories.

Harper has an interest in the status quo unless he believes he can win a majority. (The polls don't show that and an election campaign wouldn't likely change the numbers.)

For the first year or so of his mandate, Harper could say that each day in power showed that he's not a *scary, scary* guy. Well now, if Harper's government lasts to 2009, he can go into an election saying that he governed fairly, in mature fashion, compromised and he plays well with others.

So, Harper doesn't want an election but he'll use the threat of a confidence vote to get one of the three opposition parties to support him and get key legislation through.

-----

Dion's perspective? Dion has one kick at the can and he's out. I figure at some point he'll get tired of being in opposition and just let slip the dogs of war.

[jdobbin]

The government could fall on Afghanistan, crime or the budget. It appears that the Liberals and Tories have come to an agreement on Afghanistan. The Liberals have walked out (abstained on) the crime bill. I suspect they'll do the same on the budget.

Dion's perspective? Dion has one kick at the can and he's out. I figure at some point he'll get tired of being in opposition and just let slip the dogs of war.

Dion is not going to have an election over the Senate. He probably doesn't want it on Afghanistan anymore than Harper does.

The budget is another story. It is doubtful that another confidence motion on finance is going to pass by.

[August1991]

The budget is another story. It is doubtful that another confidence motion on finance is going to pass by.

I don't know about that. All Harper needs is one party to support him or to abstain.

The polls imply now that if we had an election, the new parliament would be more or less what we have now - except Harper might lose his "stable minority" scenario.

He probably doesn't want it on Afghanistan anymore than Harper does.

I agree. For several good reasons (both political and for the country). Edited February 13, 2008 by August1991

[jdobbin]

I don't know about that. All Harper needs is one party to support him or to abstain.

The polls imply now that if we had an election, the new parliament would be more or less what we have now - except Harper might lose his "stable minority" scenario.

That seems to be good enough for a lot of people.

I agree. For several good reasons (both political and for the country).

I think is one that Harper could lose the election on and one that would split the Liberal party even if they won the election.

[Visionseeker]

The government could fall on Afghanistan, crime or the budget. It appears that the Liberals and Tories have come to an agreement on Afghanistan. The Liberals have walked out (abstained on) the crime bill. I suspect they'll do the same on the budget.

Look at the situation from Harper's perspective. At present, he can govern as long as at least one opposition party supports him. IOW, to defeat the government, all three would have to unite in a coalition. This is as close to a stable minority government as a PM could hope for. What's the alternative? If we go to an election now, the most Harper could hope for is to be PM in another minority government. It could possibly be a minority where the Libs and NDP together alone could defeat the Tories.

Harper has an interest in the status quo unless he believes he can win a majority. (The polls don't show that and an election campaign wouldn't likely change the numbers.)

For the first year or so of his mandate, Harper could say that each day in power showed that he's not a *scary, scary* guy. Well now, if Harper's government lasts to 2009, he can go into an election saying that he governed fairly, in mature fashion, compromised and he plays well with others.

So, Harper doesn't want an election but he'll use the threat of a confidence vote to get one of the three opposition parties to support him and get key legislation through.

-----

Dion's perspective? Dion has one kick at the can and he's out. I figure at some point he'll get tired of being in opposition and just let slip the dogs of war.

Good post.

But I will say that Harper "does" come across as a little "scary, scary" with the Keen matter and other HR moves.

[maldon_road]

The government could fall on Afghanistan, crime or the budget. It appears that the Liberals and Tories have come to an agreement on Afghanistan. The Liberals have walked out (abstained on) the crime bill. I suspect they'll do the same on the budget.

Dion has already said they will vote on the budget.

They already look like idiots continuing to refuse to vote - like yesterday, a bunch of lemmings traipsing over the cliff. Dion knows if he refuses to vote on the budget, the most important of all issues, he will become a laughing stock - if he isn't already.

So, Harper doesn't want an election but he'll use the threat of a confidence vote to get one of the three opposition parties to support him and get key legislation through.

They will vote on the budget - they might even support it.

Certainly the Dips and Blocs won't.

Edited February 13, 2008 by maldon_road

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I thnik it is time to throw caution to the wind for the Liberals and show some balls. Enough is enough, crap or get off the pot.