twister

Here is my prediction: THE TERRITORIES Liberals 3 BRITISH COLUMBIA Conservatives 24 Liberals 6 NDP 5 Independent 1 ALBERTA Conservatives 27 Liberals 1 SASKATCHEWAN Conservatives 10 NDP 3 Liberals 1 MANITOBA Conservatives 7 NDP 4 Liberals 3 ONTARIO Liberals 53 Conservatives 48 NDP 5 QUEBEC Bloc Quebecois 64 Liberals 11 MARITIMES Liberals 22 Conservatives 6 NDP 4 CANADA WIDE Conservatives 122 Liberals 100 Bloc Quebecois 64 NDP 21 Independent 1

I agree with you August, the Tories and NDP will do much better than polls suggest. The reason for this - the two parties are much better at getting the vote out. This election should be interesting because many Liberal voters that I know say that they support the party but aren't going to vote. IMO this election won't be as close as some suggest - why? Two reasons: The Conservatives have, under their previous banners always polled lower before the election ie. the Alliance consistently polled in the upper teens/low twenties in 2000 but actually took almost 26% of the vote. Second, I think many people who are upset with the Liberals but refuse to support either the CPC or NDP will simply not vote. Monday night should be interesting for sure, but I think the Tories will walk away with 35 to 37% of the vote leaving the Liberals behind with 28 to 30%

From the Globe and Mail: A new Ipsos-Reid poll puts the Conservatives and Liberals in a statistical tie and also shows the Tories have regained their momentum just days before the election. The results: Liberals 32% (flat lined) Conservatives 31% (Up 3%) NDP 17% Bloc 12% Greens 6% As for Seat Projections the Tories still remain in the lead Conservatives 115-119 Liberals 99-103 More details were to be released tomorrow Globe and Mail

Manitoba and Conservative

Looks like things are going even better for the Liberals (not!) as the latest SES research poll puts them in second place with 32% to the Conservatives 34% nationally. Would be interesting to see the level of support the tories have when Quebec is factored out. Conservatives edge out Liberals Paul Martin's popularity is also falling fast, 27% feel he is the best suited for the job of Prime Minister vs. Stephen Harper at 23%.

You would think that the leader of the Green party would have ran in B.C. where the party has a strong base instead of running against Layton and Mills in Toronto.

The Liberals will do what they always do, they'll sling mud at their competitors. Liberals see that their firm grip on power is slipping away very quickly and you can already see the desperation in their actions. I think Martin will lose more ground this week as he is out of the country and will come home to the Conservatives leading in opinion polls. Once he returns I think we're in for some nasty fights especially before the two debates. I think Canadians will not tolerate the negativity put forth by the Liberals and watch for their support to plunge after the debates on June 14/15th.

Interesting to note that most of the support that is bleeding away from the Liberals is going to the Conservatives (about 7 in 10) while very little is actually going to the NDP (3 in 10). If this trend keeps up we could see the Tories exceed 35% support while the Liberals fall below 30%.

With polls suggesting the Conservatives have the momentum in this election (even before Harper blows Martin away in the upcoming debates) will they make a breakthrough in Quebec? If it looks like the tories will win government will Quebecors finally see that the Bloc is not a real alternative and instead opt to support a party that can actually give them cabinet representation? There are a number of ridings that I believe can go to the Tories including Pontiac and Riviere Du Loup where Mario Dumont's ADQ is strong.

Things will get nasty indeed but I think that once the debates occur we will see Martin really go into panic mode. Martin can't match Harper's debating style (Martin usually stumbles while he talks and appears very uncomfortable) while Harper is a naturally great speaker. Once the debates are over watch for the Liberal ship to sink even faster. Could we see them (the Libs) actually drop below 30% support, I definetly think that is possible. This election is shaping up to be a repeat of 1984 with the exception that a landslide for the Tories isn't likely (at this time anyway).

I'm predicting a conservative minority government, I think many Canadians are fed up and tired of the liberals and want to teach them a lesson. At the same time I don't think voters are willing to give the Conservatives a majority government. Therefore a minority is more likely (the Conservatives can't win a majority this time because of the lack of support in Quebec anyway). Here's my regional predictions: Atlantic Canada (32 Seats) LIB 19 CPC 9 NDP 4 Quebec (75 Seats) BQ 62 LIB 12 CPC 1 Ontario (106 Seats) LIB 55 CPC 43 NDP 8 Manitoba/Saskatchewan (28 Seats) CPC 17 NDP 7 LIB 4 Alberta (28 Seats) CPC 28 BC (36 Seats) CPC 24 NDP 10 LIB 2 North (3 Seats) LIB 2 NDP 1 Total (308 Seats) CPC 122 LIB 94 BQ 62 NDP 30

I think this election train has already pulled out of the station and there is no turning back. If Paul Martin does suddenly decide to cancel the election call it will do further damage to his faltering reputation (if that's possible). I think no matter what he does it is a no win situation for Martin and could prove to be a costly election for him and the Liberals.

Looks like more bad news for the Liberals and Paul Martin. A story on tonight's Global National suggests that Canadians are cranky and more likely to opt for change in leadership. According to a poll done for Global the Liberals have 39% support amongst Canadians but the Conservatives have surged to 31% and climbing. According to the poll most Canadians feel that they are worse off today than they were 4 years ago. Here's the results of the Global/Compas poll: Nationally: Liberals 39% Conservatives 31% NDP 17% Bloc 11% When asked are you better off today than you were 4 years ago: 27% said they were better off 40% worse off 32% the same In Ontario the poll suggests that the Conservatives and Liberals are in a dead heat with each other in 25 of the sample ridings chosen for the poll. The author of the poll points out that the number of very competitive ridings is closer to 75 of the 106 ridings. Liberals lead with 42% in these ridings to the Conservatives 39% (with a + or - 3% margin of error). Here is a link to the full story Global National: Cranky Canadians This election keeps getting more interesting by the day and it hasn't even been called yet. Makes you wonder if Paul Martin is worried yet.

New poll done by Ipsos-Reid shows the Conservatives gaining eight points in B.C. to sit at 31% while the Liberals are down four points to 33% and the NDP at 27% (they sit unchanged). Looks like the Liberals are losing support to the Conservatives while the NDP aren't moving in either direction. The new poll also suggests that Ontario could become an interesting battle ground. Here's a link to the news story: CTV News: Martin heads for election with sagging momentum

I'm a northerner, free marketeer close to George W. Bush

It seems in the past few weeks the Conservatives have been up and down (along with the Liberals) in the 2 to 3% range. I think once the election campaign actually begins we'll see the Tories move up and the Liberals fall (as they usually do during elections). The Alliance moved from 17/18% in 2000 at the beginning of the election to 25.5% on election night. I wouldn't be suprised to see the Tories take 32/33% of the vote on June 28th.