Dave_ON

I concur 100%, it's a long overdue shift and has opened the federalist path in PQ again.

I'm not so confident but we'll see I suppose. I can't believe how few seats the BLOC won, I never would have thought they would do so pooorly nor would I have suspected the NDP would break 100. Also personal surprise in my own riding which was a close three way race, Glen Pearson actually lost his seat. Surprising considering no one has ever even heard of Susan Truppe.

Correct based on previous election results, however, current polls the ones you claim to be so very versed in but heretofore have provided on substance to back up your claims, indicate that even in Ontario NDP support is on the rise. To say less is to be utterly out of touch with reality. The fact remains, the CPC has been at best flat, and the NDP is rising. But I suppose your partisan blinders are preventing you from even acknowledging this fact. What poll/polls specifically are you referring to that shows this expanded CPC minority will materialize? What do you base your opinions on? Translation do as I say don't do as I do. So basically you are bereft of facts and are only armed with aspersions. Well done! I asked for evidence to the contrary that he isn't a conservative hack. His bias is demonstrated in any of his work. I did not once say "ignore what he says", merely his assessment is clearly not without bias, I'll grant you this was implicit, so I suppose I can't fault you for misunderstanding. Glad to see I've made your contempt list, that's impressive and it only took me one small post! It appears that anyone who disagrees with you earns your contempt. Good for me. Be that as it may there is little evidence according to the polls that the CPC will make gains, if anything they will maintain status quo or go down in seat count ever so slightly. Feel free to employ your vast powers to refute my opinions, or simply take pot shots at me without supporting evidence; Your call really.

No elections Canada will not allow any web based transmissions prior to the polls closing. Most news websites have already disabled all external posting. You might be able to scour twitter and facebook but even that apparently is illegal.

The difference I suppose is it can be demonstrated quite clearly that David Frum is biased and as such his "predictions" should be interpreted in that light, therefore if a riding is close he's going to interpret that for the CPC, or allocated a rather unwarranted allotment of the undecided vote to the CPC. The CBC's apparent "liberal" bias is your perception and cannot be clearly demonstrated. I hear some people say things like the MSM is liberal but little to no evidence is ever provided.

About as sage as your assessment of NDP support in Ontario. As mentioned in other threads, Ontario is too close to call in many areas, but the NDP hold ridings outside of Northern Ontario, the GTA and Hamilton. Now stop "trying" to be clever; condescension is unbecoming of a gentlemen. I've given my predictions in other threads, and the reasoning behind it. All we've seen out of you is nay saying and saber rattling, enough with the fluff give us some substance sir. Let's just look at how much of a conservative hack David Frum is shall we? Here's some light reading penned by the man himself. "Dead Right", "Comeback: Conservatism that can Win Again", "What's Right: The New Conservatism and What It Means for Canada" and the list goes on and on. Are you honestly saying he's not a conservative hack? If so please provide examples as to how he hasn't demonstrated overt partisanship.

What a surprise, a conservative hack predicting an expanded CPC minority.

Ontario is way too up in the air to call at this point. You forgot London East which is currently an NDP riding, though this may have been one of the "crapholes" you were alluding to.

His prediction is way off of the what the polls indicate when taken in context of one another. 158 CPC really at a peak of 38% even with vote splitting the CPC will not even come close to 158. Also with the BLOC polling at 6% at best they're not going to make 39 seats. In short he's far over selling the CPC and BLOC at the expense of the NDP. I'd be sincerely surprised if the CPC managed to hold onto their 2008 seat count. What is clear is the the NDP are going up at the expense of the LPC, the BLOC and even the CPC. On the Conservative side based on polls I'd have to guess CPC 143 NDP 77 LPC 60 BLOC 28 Though I believe that may still be overselling the CPC, LPC and the BLOC at the expense of the NDP but I suppose we'll see tonight.

Mmmm I'd rather crushed velvet wall paper and shag carpet

Oh my "covetous", quick wyly offer a libation in propitiation of your iniquity. See I can wax biblical also.

Excuse me but nobody celebrates moving day... err Canada day as hard as Quebec.

I would also find this acceptable, I don't care which one decides to truly move up the middle as long as one of them does. I just think it's more likely that the NDP will do so. The CPC already have a solid support base, the NDP appear to be just now finding their footing and have the most to gain by moving more to the centre.

I hope you're right, I can't wait to hear how Mr. Harper will handle it in his speech if he does in fact lose seats. I couldn't stand to listen to his "strengthened minority" drivel in 2008, as if a minority was the least bit indicative of any level of strength. I also predict most of urban Ontario will stay Red, with smatterings of orange here and there.

Hmmm interesting, do you really think the Bloc will do that well? I personally would love to see them fall below 12 and lose official party status. I also never would have thought you'd predict the GPC gaining a seat, I know how much a fan of May you are after all

I think (hope) that the NDP do occupy the political void left by the demise of the LPC. I think, that we'll see the NDP move more toward the center and they may very well be the heirs to the lions share of the LPC support, given the CPC's penchant for social conservatism even blue grits would have a difficult time supporting them. We really do need to get back to the two main party model, with a third party waiting in the wings, our system truly is dependent on having two relatively evenly matched parties. This keeps both in check and prevents the level of corruption we saw during the successive Chretien majorities and to a lesser extent the level of corruption we've seen from the CPC. Nothing keeps you honest, though I hesitate to use the word when referring to politicians, than having a strong political rival constantly on your heels. I find it interesting to note that the Death of PC's was also the death knell for the LPC. Had the PC's not fallen so far from grace the LPC never would have been in a position to fall either. I suppose my central point in all of this, is we need a party that is fiscally moderate to conservative and socially liberal. The NDP have the socially liberal aspect in their favor and it is far more likely IMNHO that they would be more inclined to move toward the fiscal centre than the CPC would be to move toward the social centre.

Morning TB, my day doesn't feel started until I read one of your dose of reality posts

But the NDP weren't in the position of weakness the LPC currently is. They're in a very precarious position at the moment. Their support is waning and are in severe need of vision, good leadership and renewal. If they don't turn the ship around soon, they will end up being absorbed, I don't see this as a bad thing. I think the LPC could do a great deal to moderate the NDP and bring them more to the centre. We need a party like the old LPC, and either the NDP rises to the occassions or the LPC will be back in a decade or so, renewed and retooled to fill the political void.

Oh I don't disagree this is certainly her best chance yet. Central nova was a silly idea running against a very popular candidate. I just don't see it materializing this time around, but I could be wrong. Who knows how the NDP surge will impact this riding or if the surge is as big as all the hype.

I'm from NB myself and I have to agree with cybercoma, the NDP just doesn't have the presence there to gain seats. Most are fairly set in their ways, and there is huge CPC support there. I can still remember when the PC's imploded in 93, Elsie Wayne formed half of the PC caucus. She was an extremely popular former Mayor and would have won regardless of what party she ran under. I think you'll find that a lot of support is coming from NS which is skewing the numbers slightly, NDP support is strongest in NS. NB also has a distinct cultural divide that doesn't exist anywhere else in Canada, with a language split of roughly 65/35 English to French. Many of the French ridings traditionally go LPC and the English go CPC. Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe is somewhat unique as there is a very close to equal French/English ratio. As an aside don't mix up "The Maritimes" with the Atlantic provinces. Maritimes = NB, NS and PEI, the Atlantic provinces includes Newfoundland.

I agree this is her best shot at a riding she's had, the question is, will enough of the GPC supporters turn out? The problem with the GPC is their support is highly spread out, this is certainly their best chance. I guess it remains to be seen tonight, but I'm not expecting her to win, I think there will be last minute change of heart. She's projected in the polls I've seen to lead 45% to 38% to her nearest competitor, however, this is well within the margin of error. Given this election anything could happen, but I just don't see the Greens pulling it off this time.

I would actually be in favor of coroporate taxes returning to last years levels. The tax cut was irresponsible and unnecessary, especially if I have to wait until 2015 for my piece of the pie. Also it should be noted, that Mr. Harper during his tenure has increased government bureaucracy and increased his security staff exponentially. Though in Mr. Harper's defense he's not as scrappy as Chretien who in large part handled his own security with his bare hands. Let's talk fighter jets that we still don't have accurate numbers on, or prisons we also don't have a price tag for. The magic of CPC economics is we'll increase spending while lowering taxes...

I don't know that they're dead yet, but at around 20%, lower than they've been in close to 1.5 centuries, is indeed a death knell for them. This has been a long time coming and hopefully they will take the time to renew the party, or ultimately be absorbed and replaced by the NDP. The fact remains Canada needs a party like the LPC, whether that means a more fiscally moderate NDP or a rejuvenated LPC remains to be seen.

I think that remains to be seen at this juncture, we'll have to wait until the results are in, but one thing cannot be denied the BLOC is in for their worst election results in their entire history. Incidentally so are the liberals, or so all signs point to at present. If there is a coalition the bloc likely won't be necessary. It'll all depend on how Ontario goes for the LPC and BC goes for the NDP. One things for certain we're in for a very very different parliament this time around, and Canada is about to become a great deal more orange.

Hah that sounds like a deal to me, does hollandaise sauce go well with crow? I wouldn't consider myself and NDP, and I'm one of the few voting for a candidate as opposed to the party itself. I'm fascinated by the apparent implosion of the LPC and the rush of the NDP to supplant them, and at how aghast and off balance this has made the CPC. They were prepared to slug it out with Ignatieff and the LPC, but this is a devil they don't know and weren't prepared to deal with. Probably one of the most exciting elections I can remember that's for certain.