Jobu

Certainly quite competitive when you look around to the rest of the world, isn't it? Your man Dion's been trying to tell us we're in recession and in relative freefall, isn't he? Let's look at the 2008 figures again, shall we? Country.....2008 Canada.....0.7 USA.....1.6 France.....0.8 Germany.....1.8 UK.....1.0 Japan.....0.7 Not so bad I'd say, given that we're suffering nothing like the crisis being felt in the U.S. or Europe. As for 2009, from the same report of which you speak: "In an economic outlook report published today, RBC revised its outlook for Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2008 to 0.9% from 1.4% and said it expects growth to rebound slightly in 2009 to 1.5%."

Ahh, right. I get it now. So now forecasts are totally useless and baseless. I suppose we should do away with them all. One question though. Why are we supposed to believe Dion's revenue neutral promise on the Greem Shift? Or the figures he uses to proclaim that he won't run into deficit? Why does any party cost their platform? Typical of Liberals. Speak out of the left side of the mouth in one case, and the right in another.

How about you answer the question first? As for which report, whatever you like. RBC's is even more bullish than the IMF's, forecasting 1.5% GDP growth for Canada in 2009. So... what's your point here?

So... having the supposed worst GDP is a bad thing, but now that it's projected to be the best, more excuses?

Sort of like Dion and Layton's speculations (hopes?) for a recession and that somehow higher taxes will help?

You sound like Layton and Dion, you know, wishing a recession on us. Making up a platform on the go in response to day-to-day changes in the market isn't exactly the tempermant I consider virtuous in helping deal with economic matters. Also, which of Harper's policies have contributed to declining wealth and global recession? Please, I am all ears. Finally, perhaps this will calm your nerves and get you back to reality: GDP Growth: Country.....2008.....2009 Canada.....0.7.....1.2 USA.....1.6.....0.1 France.....0.8.....0.2 Germany.....1.8.....0.0 UK.....1.0.....-0.1 Japan.....0.7.....0.5 http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/08/imf.html

I suspect an uptick for the CPC in the coming days. TSX up 225 points and the IMF report showing Canada has the strongest economy in the G7 for 2009. It will be interesting to see how Dion and Layton try to spin this. This couldn't be more welcome news for the CPC, particularly if the TSX can close the week on a high.

So I guess Harper must be doing something right? ~~~~~~~~~~~~ TORONTO - Despite the unprecedented volatility that has left stock markets reeling in recent days, data continue to show that the underlying fundamentals of the Canadian economy are strong, economists say. Housing numbers released Wednesday suggest the sector is still relatively robust and a report from the International Monetary Fund says Canada will lead the G7 in growth next year. See http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/08/imf.html for a full story. ~~~~~~~~~~~~ GDP Growth: Country.....2008.....2009 Canada.....0.7.....1.2 USA.....1.6.....0.1 France.....0.8.....0.2 Germany.....1.8.....0.0 UK.....1.0.....-0.1 Japan.....0.7.....0.5 Unemployment: Country.....2008.....2009 Canada.....6.2.....6.3 USA.....5.6.....6.9 France.....7.7.....8.3 Germany.....7.4.....8.0 UK.....5.4.....6.0 Japan.....4.1.....4.5

Since when is there unfolding financial chaos here? The only chaos is on the stock markets. The same markets that are up about 50% from early 2000. What next? The government should go around to casinos making sure no one loses money? The government has virtually no control over the stock market in the short-term. The control it does have, taxes, are being used effectively. Dion and Layton's policies would drive the markets significantly lower and companies out of Canada. Why is that so hard for people to understand? Dion's crocodile tears are nice, but facts are the facts. Anyone who's heavily invested in stocks over the age of 60 made their own bed. I'm not sure why I am supposed to feel sorry for them or expect the government to deal with it. If banks were failing, that would be one thing. It ain't happening, folks.

An insightful commentary by Andre Coyne: ~~~~~~~~~~~~ I didn’t care much for Stephen Harper’s accusation, earlier in the campaign, that the opposition were cheering for a recession. But the longer this goes on, the more I’m starting to think there’s something in it. The Liberals are now trying to make a “gaffe” of Harper’s perfectly sensible observation that the present panic on the stock markets presents a remarkable buying opportunity, for those with cooler heads. Stephane Dion, in particular, was quick to denounce the advice as “so insensitive.” I’m sorry? How? What would they have him say? Sell? Take your lumps? Do nothing? You can only call it “insensitive” if you are bound and determined that nothing should break the spell of panic that now grips the country — that no possibility of an upside should be allowed to intrude. Just so long as cooler heads do not prevail. This is demagoguery of the worst sort. And I don’t just mean that nothing about the present state of the Canadian economy justifies lumping it in with the United States or Europe, still less invoking the ghost of R. B. Bennett. We have not suffered a real estate crash, nor are we likely to; we have not seen a single financial institution go under, nor is any likely to; we did not have anything like the sub-prime mortgage mess; nor do we have the institutional equivalents of Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns — large, highly-leveraged, stand-alone investment banks without the backing of a chartered bank. But that’s not what distinguishes the opposition demagoguery in this case. It isn’t that they’re fear-mongers: it’s that, having mongered such fears, they do not propose to do anything about them. Sensibly enough — the problems of the Canadian economy, such as they are, find their origins outside our borders, and will find their solutions there. But it’s the height of hypocrisy, whaling away at the government for doing nothing while offering precisely the same themselves. The 85 lefty economists who signed that letter demanding the government go into deficit and otherwise “stimulate” the economy might have been out to lunch, but they were at least putting their names on the line, and exposing their proposals to public criticism. The opposition are taking no such risk, or responsibility. So. We are not in a depression. We are not even, so far as anyone knows, in a recession. And while the rest of the world’s financial system dissolves in panic, Canada remains a notable island of stability. We do not have an emergency on our hands. What we have is a nasty downdraft in the stock market — one that is reflective of a deeper crisis, to be sure, but a crisis not of our making. Is a 35% drop in the stock market (from its June peak) a crisis in itself? No it is not. The stock market does not owe you a living. It’s down 35% from four months ago, but it was up 50% in the three years before that (see chart). The present “crisis” has taken prices on the TSE all the way back to where they were in the dark days of 2005 — when they had just finished climbing 50% in two years. Think back to that time. You were rich! You were happy! You were counting your money! Maybe you should have sold then. But you didn’t, because you wanted more. Now you’re paying the price. You’ve given up three years of gains. But you’re still up 50% from where you were five years ago. And, if you’re sensible, you’ll make up for not selling then by buying now. Those who were on the buy side on October 19, 1987 made a killing in the months that followed. Not willing to risk it? Fine. Just sit tight. Worried about your retirement? If you’re anywhere under 55, you’ll be fine. You don’t need the money for 10 or 15 years. They’ll have more than recovered by then. If you’re over 55 — what are you doing in the stock market? This bears emphasis: If you’re old enough to be worried about your stocks, you’re too old to own them. Stocks earn more in the long-term, because they’re riskier in the short term. You should be heavily in stocks when you’re young, because you’re not going to need the money any time soon. But you should be gradually shifting into safer investments — bonds, T-bills — as you get older. By the time you’re of retirement age, they should be only a small part of your portfolio. That’s not complicated. It doesn’t take a PhD or a high-powered investment adviser. It’s just common sense. So when the Liberals invoke the pensioner who’s lost half of his savings in the stock market plunge, you have to ask: what was he thinking? To be sure, on this one point the Grits have actually proposed something creative — allowing pensioners to keep their investments in their RRSPs a while longer, rather than being forced to sell at these prices in order to make the required transfers into their RIFs on the usual schedule. But at some point, people have to take a little responsibility for their actions. Otherwise, we have the individual version of moral hazard: everyone has a great ride on the stock market on the way up, but comes crying to government to bail them out when things turn south.

Young people get religion pretty fast when they graduate from school and realize that they have a 50/50 silent business partner for the rest of their life, being the government.

When did he say that?

History is just that, history. The federal Liberals are currently about as "national" of a party as the BQ.

So... the LPC, who may be down to less than 5 seats West of Ontario and will pick up only a handful or two east of Ontario, are a "national" party? Why don't we wait for the votes to be counted before we proclaim that Quebec will not turn to the CPC? There's still a week left, and the latest big-sample poll had the CPC and BQ a lot closer than Nick Nanos and his +/- 10% MOE rolling polls.

That's not the latest polls. Today has the CPC at at a 7% point lead, with it appearing that yesterday's numbers were rogue (Dion's leadership index falling by 19 points today). I'd say by Tuesday or Wednesday we'll likely be back to a 10-12 point CPC lead, especially with the CPC platform release coming up (unless there are some surprises, we'll probably see consverative spending and estimates) and, if anything, policy announcements again targeted at Quebecers and women/families. I think the tell-tale sign of this election is that the LPC is campaigning in LPC ridings hoping to hold on, whereas the CPC is in ridings it currently does not hold trying to pick up. The one thing that these polls do not account for is turnout. Completely unscientifically, I have a feeling non-ABC LPC turn-out will be extremely low. I just don't see what they have to be excited about in Dion. I would expect to see the CPC come in at least a couple of percentage points higher on election day than they are currently polling. The CPC base can be counted on to go out and vote; I'm not convinced the same is true for the LPC.

Decisive action? bahahaha Dion wanted the Canadian Jewish Congress to make the decision for him and he waffled forever! Make the decision yourself, Dion. Nice leadership! What would he do as PM? Ask the Canadian Jewish Congress before making decisions?

I support the Conservatives, but am also in favour of legalization and taxing of these "victimless crimes".

Looks like a majority is on the horizon. There's still the debates to come, where I can't imagine there being any upside for Dion. If the CPC can somehow turn the numbers up in Quebec after the recent slide, we could see a big majority.

Is anyone aware of a printable riding-by-riding list? Nerds that we are, we are doing a prediction pool to see who can predict the most ridings correctly, and before I prepare my own list I was hoping to see if there were any others out there. Thanks!

Nanos has the Tories back up to an 11-point lead. CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22) http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/90

Dear Chicken Little; Half a billion? Nothing like a little exaggeration, eh? P.S. It will be a CPC majority.

And another one bites the dust. http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/...idate-drop.html

New Nanos poll shows Conservatives lead is now 11 points, 39 to 28.

I think you need to remove that rather large stick from your behind. PC run amok, lack of sense of humour, partisan hack and political opportunist, all of the above?

Umm, perhaps because the quotation I cited objected to the comments on the basis of them being public. Try to keep up.