Generally I disagree. Depite media scepticism Guiliani continues to retain a surprisingly large prortion of core republican supporters. His support numbers within the party indicate a sizable number of supporters amongst those who are unlikely to agree with him on "social" or "family values" issues. Guiliani's biggert problem is that he has not concentrated enough in New Hampshire. Iowa is a loss for him and will probably give the "socially conservative" candidate momentum but with a right mix of pro-gun rights and other libertarian sounding mezsssages in New Hampshire Guiliani would have the ability to win that primary. Sucha win would break the back of any challanger. While Giliani has good support among conservatives (and arguably surprising support) he is in danger of lossing both of these key battles, while pursuing the larger nomination. Sometimes you have to ignore the forest of the few key trees.
Clinton wins the dem nomination hands down. Obama is going to be forced to become negative really soon, unless he gives up and decides to "run" for VP instead. At this point Clinton is beginning to run away with it. To win the nomination Obama has to demonstrate that in a alrger election her baggage will bring her down, in order to start drawing some of the Dem supervoters away from her. To do that he has to go negative.
Edwards does not have a chance in hell of winning that nomination. That's too bad for the republicans. Of the three he would be the least likely to win a general election. The man is a joke and he is not helping his credibility by kowtowing, at times, to the far fringes of the Democratic party. I'll point out to you that Dean crashed and burned by carrying out the same tactic and Edwards doesn't have nearly the momentum Dean had.
Your analysis, I dare say, is not very serious.
It's a long way from now until the conventions and many things can happen between now and then both caused by outside forces and by the candidates themselves. As Harold Wilson pointed out, a week is an eternity in politics. Clinton and Giuliani have opposite problems. It would be easier for him to win the general election than get the nomination and Clinton is more likely to win the nomination than win in the November election. I don't think Clinton's appeal with the public will last. The more you hear her the more grating she becomes. Giuliani comes across better than Clinton but I don't think he has long-term appeal to Repubs.