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Posts posted by punked

  1. I listened to the Tories side and they say the money has been spent BUT they don't say exactly where. So if they know its spent then where was it spent? Maybe in advertising, robocalls, helping out on their overspending, things like that.

    Come on the Liberals spent this money.

  2. Actually he does have a valid legal point says this law prof not that I know anything. May I kindly point out If you rely solely on circumstantial and eye witness evidence you run the risk that an arguement of reasonable doubt can be raised or even an insanity plea.

    This is why with even the most slam dunk of cases (presumptive evidence is what we like to call it) its always preferable the prosecutor has a confession or at least statements from the accused that can be used in court.

    However I would not be surprised if a legal arguement is made that there was never reasonable opportunity to offer the rights because the violent actions of the accused prevented it from being communicated in a timely manner. That is an arguement that has been made successfully in the past. Kind of hard to offer the miranda when you have grenades being thrown at you or you are being shot at. Its not to conducive to conversation if you know what I mean.

    In this case however I would suggest the accused if he does recover my very well want to make political statements at the appropriate time and want to incriminate himself and even plead guilty. The guilty conviction os often used by terrorists as a sign of martyrdom, vindication and confirmation that what they did was right and serves as call out to other terrorists to carry on.


    They have him on camera placing the bomb next to a kid and in the frame running away as the bomb goes off. Its open and shut.

  3. What I don't understand is why is the Miranda Right being revoked for the bomber? I thought the only exception in which the Miranda Right can be revoke would be if there was a continual threat. Yet the officials last night did say the hunt is over, doesn't that mean the threat is over?

    I guess I would be committing a slippery-slope fallacy in suggest where you draw the line to revoke these things...

    Edit: It not as if he travelled from Russia to commit these crimes, he is an American citizen after all.

    You don't know what you are talking about. Reading you your Miranda Rights is to inform you that basically anything you say can be used against you in court and that for questioning and such you have a right to have a lawyer present. When you aren't given your Miranda the things you say can't be used. In this case though the police don't need him to talk. They have him on video dropping the bomb. The case is already made so they are going to question him with out a lawyer and not present any of that in court. It isn't that they are not reading him his Miranda Rights its that the police and FBI don't intend to use anything they get out of him in court anyway. This case is made now its about getting the information they need out of him.

  4. Ok let's look at the number again. In the last election, the CPC gained 2% of voter share and the NDP gained 12.5%. Liberals lost 7.4% and the Block lost 4%. It's clear that the NDP won votes from the liberals in english Canada, and mostly from the Block in Quebec, far more than from the CPC. The CPC did improve, but that is a VERY modest 'high water mark', if that's what you want to call a 2% gain.

    Now back to Ontario. In the vast majority of ridings, where the CPC won, the NDP were second, and vice versa. That means that votes from Liberal to NDP benefitted the CPC. Because we already know that NDP gains were mostly Liberal losses in english Canada, it follows that if the liberals won votes back, they would mostly come back from the NDP. The CPC did not change much, very few would come to them from the CPC. Therefore if the liberals have a better candidate, that is more likely to hurt the NDP than the conservatives.

    Looking specifically at the CBC 2011 electoral map results, I cannot find many CPC-won riding in Ontario where shifting the NDP vote to the Liberals would result in a liberal victory, if any. But about half or more of the NDP-won ridings would result in a CPC victory is more votes were shifted to the Liberals.

    Hence my conclusion. Chasing voters from Trudeau will mean chasing them to Mulcair, not Harper, for the most part.

    No you are wrong. The Liberals make up the mushy middle. Harper needs a weak Liberal party to get the center right vote go far right. A strong NDP does that for him.

  5. It's the simple fact that the NDP does not take votes from the CPC, those votes came largely from other parties. Both the Block and LIberals lost 40 seats each in the last election, total of 80, and NDP gained most of those. CPC is not going to win much in Quebec. If they lose votes, it will be mostly to the liberals in english Canada, but liberal votes can also have the effect of diminishing the NDP and resulting a CPC win in some ridings. If they destroy Justin by election day, the NDP becomes a real threat. The best strategy would be, IMO, to just let NDP and Liberals fight it out.

    Another way to look at it is simply look at Ontario. Nearly all the ridings they lost, they lost to the NDP. In every one of those cases, CPC was second. That means a few more liberal votes gives them those ridings. Because most of the NDP gains in english Canada came from the liberals, it follows that most liberal gains would come back from the NDP rather than from the CPC.

    Nope I am sorry you are wrong. Go back and look at your numbers. The Cons have 73 of Ontario's 103 seats they are above their high water mark every point the Liberals gain is an Ontario seat they wont win this election. They like the vote split right where it is right now. Every vote that is gained by the Liberals is a seat in Ontario the Cons lose.

  6. Let's look at what caused the Orange wave, disenfranchised voters in QC, and people, like me, that voted for the local NDP candidate because the Liberal one didn't have a chance (Oshawa riding). Jack couldn't get us past Harper... Mulcair never will.

    I hope the CPC really goes after Trudeau. The first two ads were laughable, can't wait to see what is next.

    Regardless of the history we are where we are now. Right now I know nothing abut Trudeau and I am not jumping onto a ship I know NOTHING ABOUT.

  7. Actually they are compensated for that time. Their salary is an annual salary but paid out over 10 months. Like any salaried position, you get paid to get your job done....not by the hour.

    Yes I agree they are paid for the job they do which means they do not work in the summer which is why they don't get paid for that time.

  8. What I mean is the split could be even more optimized if Justin takes back some votes from the NDP. The NDP won those votes largely from the liberals. If they had a more even split, than the CPC comes out on top in many of the NDP-held ridings now, meaning the potential preservation of their majority since they are sure to lose some seats out of the population's sheer ennui with them.

    Nope that math just doesn't add up. I will have to ask for examples on this one for sure. Considering most NDP seats were won in Quebec where the Cons poll in the teens I have no idea what you are talking about.

  9. That's almost certainly false since during 2 whole months they put in close to zero hours per day. But even if it was true, so? That doesn't mean they deserve 100K. Nobody forced them to become teachers, that was their choice. In fact right now its difficult to find a permanent job as a new graduate teacher. I say get rid of the ones collecting 80K and hire the new grads who are eager to work and not just to report their various entitlements.

    Yah Teachers don't get paid for those 2 months so it is really fair to count them?

  10. He is saying the exact same thing every politician says, "Canadians are tired of negative.......". And at election time, he will run negative ads as well. They all will, because they all know they work, and everyone else knows that as well.

    I think the conservatives should just leave him alone. Let him take the vote back from the NDP and split it up again. The voters who went to the NDP last time are the ones who will be swayed by his looks and a vaguely defined anger against the machine. Harper should just sit back and let it happen. For the negative side, Mulcair is a professional complainer, and will probably do most of the work for him.

    Oh ya, cause that kind of thing would really resonate with the CPC voters he is trying to sway.

    Why would the Conservatives want him to take back the NDP voters? They won a majority with that split don't you remember? That is the split they need.

  11. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the effectiveness of the conservative attack adds.

    They only seem to go with something that has a very high chance of working which probably explains why they have not touched the NDP or Mulcair.

    Keep in mind that the liberals not only have to fight off the conservatives but also the NDP.

    Certainly there will still be people coming out to vote liberal,but after a year or so of attack adds????


    I don't think the NDP will attack the Liberals to much. Attacking the Liberals only keeps them in opposition, I think they really want to govern and they need to save every dollar to organize and take on the Conservatives. I think you will see, and I already have much more from the Liberals attack the NDP then the other way around.

  12. I agree with you,the conservatives are very concerned about Justin and are making sure that the voters will turn down the liberals.

    However I would think that with these adds and more to come,the conservatives will win the race to the bottom in deterring more liberals from coming out on election day.


    Liberals will come out on election day. Trudeau's election has made sure of that. Problem is there just aren't as many people in the Liberal base anymore. The best case for Harper is these adds drive some of the independent progressives to the NDP but not enough to tip them. Keep the vote split which I understand but I am willing to best which ever progressive party is in the lead a week out from the election will see the other parties supporters jump ship.

  13. Interesting, it says this:

    Reforming Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system so that a party’s share of the popular vote is more closely reflected in its share of the seats in the House of Commons. Trudeau would institute a preferential ballot, wherein voters would rank their choices and the winner in each riding would need to capture more than 50 per cent of the vote.

    But when I checked Justin's website at the start of this thread, it said he was against proportional representation. That section of his website is currently unavailable.

    So who knows?

    Thats funny because he has been flip flopping on drug policy the last few months to. Could it be he wants Liberals to think he is with them on policy while at the same time he (like many Liberal leaders in the past) will do whatever he wants when he is elected?

  14. I am going to be a Liberal voter in the next election. My decision has already been made. It was based on my dislike of the current government. Harper sold his political soul to get power. From his opinions while involved in the NCC and in addition, the Alberta Firewall Letter and his connection to that, and every scandal since he has taken power, Harper has no support from me.

    The point I was making was that in fact the government of Steven Harper has chosen to spend Conservative Party funds, which are in reality subsidized with government funds, in an attempt to prevent positive or favorable public opinion for Trudeau.

    Yah we don't live in a two party system and haven't for a very long time.

    BTW I find it very hypocritical to bring up the firewall letter at the same time Liberals around this country are telling me to ignore Trudeau's statements on Quebec and how he doesn't follow the news because he said those things so long ago. I agree with you I will base my vote on the person their part and current statements and probably vote for Mulcair.

  15. In truth the Conservatives are scared. The next election is too far away and therefore its outcome cannot be accurately predicted. Conservative numbers are trending down along with the NDP while the Liberals are trending upward. This attack ad recognizes the direct political threat that Trudeau represents. There is concern within the ranks that leader approval ratings will have high impact on voter turnout. That spells distinct trouble for Harper.

    Liberal voters such as yourself have sold this line about the last leaders of the Liberal party. Sorry you have cried wolf to many times to take this point seriously.

  16. There should be a law making these IED bombs illegal. It would be a step in the right direction. I know that would just keep them out of the hands of law-abiding citizens but think about it, who really needs an IED bomb?

    Wha...they are already illegal?

    Does anyone think Bill Ayers has anything to do with it?

    Nope can't make weapons illegal that is the second amendment remember?

  17. True, but do you think they'd release that kind of information to the media before they released it to the Boston police?

    I think its more that this guy is a long shot. I mean you get a guy "running away" from an explosion who is a Saudi and you should question him but this the Boston Marathon which a is a global event, he just might be someone who was caught in a very big net. Its the kind of info you don't release because chances are he isn't their guy.

  18. Yeah, right. See my thread here:


    The immigration system will continue to be exploited in this way.

    Don't forget this one. Can't find Canadians qualified to dig in a mine? Give me a break.


    Either the government enforces that temporary workers can't take jobs Canadians can do or I promise the right wing of your party Conservatives will stay home and you will lose to a divided left which will be more left then you can ever dream. This needs to stop.

  19. Wrong! Last year was my second last year. I'm done soon, and have some leads on some positions ffor next year. What have you got going for you?

    Teaching programs in Canada are 2 year programs unlike the stated where you can go into a 4 year education program. Something in this post doesn't add up and what is is someone trying to pretend they are an education student. It's the long con hut when Shady and Punked agree on something it is usually right and we can both see you don't pass the sniff test.

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