TheNewTeddy

Polls have been steady (when averaged)

You've convinced me to change my mind about the country breaking up right after Quebec goes. Any thoughts on the most plausible cause for Quebec to go? Random chance? Minority Government? Charlottetown/Meech Snap Election?

My big questions are how fast would the breakup happen and what would the maritimes do.

I'm trying to craft a political based alternate history story. So, 1995, Quebec decided to leave Canada, narrow victory for the Yes side. The two sides sit down and gab and eventually decide that on Jan 1 1997 that Quebec will become it's own country. Canada ends up breaking up as a result, but that's where I need some help and feedback... Does it happen quickly? Slowly? Who goes with who? etc? Here are my thoughts CAUSE Scenario I The breakup was caused by Charest winning the PC leadership in 1993, and the 1993 election resulted in a minority. This instability resulted in a 55-45 victory for the yes side. Scenario II Chance. The changes were so small or minor that it's hard to pinpoint. The end result was 50.5-49.5 in favour of separation. The breakup process was very very messy. Scenario III Mulroney calls a snap election in 1992 at the failure of Charlottetown and this leads to the problems. Note that this presumes the results of the 1992 election are like 155 Liberal 90 NDP 25 Reform 15 PC 10 Bloc This is in line with polls at the time, which I can produce if anyone is curious. EFFECT Presumption There would be an election in 1996 regardless of the cause. In this election the governing Liberals would be destroyed, and, Quebec would not elect MPs to new house (or at least, not ones that'd sit after Jan 1 1997) Scenario A Based on Scenario I or II, Reform would have won a majority, or, at least, a clear minority. Scenario B Based on Scenario III, a few sub scenarios... Ba - PC Majority - The party springs back from nothing to win a majority due to the collapse of the Bob Rae NDP, Jean Chretien Country Destroying Liberals, and the never-caught-on Reform Party. Bb - PC Minority - Similar to above but the bounce back is limited by the scale of the 1992 defeat Bc - NDP Majority - Despite Bob Rae, the size of the NDP opposition allows for the federal party to separate itself from the provincial reputation. The Libs doing poorly and the 1992 PC defeat allowed the NDP to win. Bd - NDP Minority - Similar to above but not as much NDP strength. Be - Lib Minority - With the 1992 destruction of the PC Party, the lack of a chance for Reform to really catch fire, and Bob Rae, the hated Liberals manage to somehow win a minority. BREAKUP Scenario 1 Works with any scenario. After Quebec decides to leave, the other provinces are eager to go, and by Jan 1 1997, they break up. Scenario 2 Works with any scenario. After the breakup, the Federal government continues for a short time, but by 2000 all the provinces end up leaving. Scenario 3 Works best with a majority in 1996, or, a Reform government. The breakup is very slow. A province or region might go, but in short, it takes up to modern times (when the recent recession) to break up. FRACTURES Where would the provinces go? ATLANTIC Form: A small chance that all 4 would go together, but I think it's far more likely that the Maritime provinces (and Newfoundland is not a Maritime province) would stick together while Newfoundland would go it on it's own. Place: Newfoundland, if it goes alone, goes alone. I can not see it joining any other country, period. The Maritimes however has 4 options. 1 - Independence. This is politically likely but economically implausible. This area is rather poor. The Maritimes as a country, in 2010, would have had a total National and Provincial, combined, revenue of $9.9B but expenditures of $23.3B, and when your deficit is higher than your revenue, you have a huge problem. 2 - Joining Quebec. Not as crazy as it sounds, they'd be similar to what Scotland is to England. There are those out there who would support this. 3 - Joining the US. Likely trying to join as 3 states they might be forced to join as 1. 4 - Hanging off Ontario. That might be all that's left of "Canada" WEST Form: All 4 could go together, or, they might fracture, but even then, I can't see the Prairies breaking up. Place: BC is the only province I could see going it on it's own, but I think, would not. The Territories, I think, would go along.

I'd love to ask you 4 questions, doitwell, if you'd be willing to indulge me.

Oh no!! What other countries do the Jews control!?

Kaliningrad to Poland??? http://www.saveyourheritage.com/images/curzon_line.jpg For nearly a thousand years, the area in Green was seen as Germany. This is the first thing that needs to be fixed.

Having an abortion is so controversial that even the most pro-choice person must recognize that it's not just a "normal" procedure.

Picking the runner up as your #2 is a Canadian thing, not an American thing.

They've released pictures of the girl who got herself run over.

Does not mean they are happy either. If you don't express your opinion, people won't know what it is.

People don't vote if they think their vote wont matter. The larger the margin of victory, the smaller the turnout, generally. This election should result in a much higher turnout, but I don't see it being above 60

The only difference between this election and past elections is that it happens a lot more frequently in this election.

She was walking along the tracks. I was in Guelph with my best friend when he decided to walk between a set of tracks. I berated him, telling him that he might get hit, and he was like "naw, nobody uses these tracks" but I went on. I told him that I have a bus to catch home and that if he gets run over, he better not expect me to stay behind, and that the police, not me, would have to tell his mother that he is now dead, and that if he wants someone to feel bad for him getting run over to a train that he should have taken someone else to Guelph with him. Finally he moved outside of the tracks. Weather it was to shut me up or because he knew I was right matters not, at least now he was far more safe.

I'm not certain you understand how scientific polling works...

I've never liked Santorum. I hate him in fact. I think he is dangerous, and that if he had won the election, that people would die in poverty because of his decisions... however I respect him as a person, and feel for him in this time, and the fact that he'd rather drop and support his family only makes me respect him more.

I respect Manning more than I do Broadbent, but I agree with the latter that the former is fudging the numbers.

Call me cruel, but when I hear of someone walking ALONG the tracks, not paying attention, and getting hit. My thoughts are not "Sad" but rather closer to "Score one for Darwin!!"

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1159319--go-train-service-delayed-as-pedestrian-struck-near-clarkson-station?bn=1 This is the 3rd in just the span of a few days. WTF? First truck rollovers now this?

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/article/1159169--rick-santorum-suspends-campaign?bn=1 Thought this deserved it's own thread

Truckers are overworked. We should be locking up their managers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq8mkENtdck&feature=player_embedded This time the NDP added in a few people to blink for him, but Mucair spends 12 seconds just staring at you.

I have Conservative MPs, Liberal MPs, NDP MPs, Journalists, and Personal Friends on my Twitter. Many of them mentioned Passover. The first to mention Easter was Elizabeth May.

They asked her if she'd ban abortion. She said that she could if she would but she can't so she wont.