UofGPolitico

I think before this senate thing is over the Liberals may fall back down to earth. I think Mulcair has finally found something to latch onto and shine.... his performance in QP this week has been amazing. Justin has hardly made a dent. Comments that the senate favours Quebec does not help either.

He is alluding to Michael Sona, who was working for Ms. Adams when the scandal broke, which rightly or wrongly, forced him to resign.

Or who won't bother making the effort in the first place. Yeah, no it was all smoke and mirrors. I just can't wait to see how Trudeau manages to deflect attacks from both the left and right, because its coming. Both parties will be gearing up big time to tear him down.

Re: Joan Crockatt, even if she doesn't make cabinet, I think she will become a parliamentary secretary. Her media background would make her a great government spokesperson.

The fact that that question has to be asked about someone who aspires to lead this country is pretty telling. He does not have any views and until the last 10 years, really did not have much to do with politics. He is a manufactured candidate and yes, eventually he will have to speak.... and this where I hope he crumbles. The thing is though, Canadian voters are fairly fickle. I wouldn't be at all surprised if enough fall for this guy's act and elect him.

Definitely... it would make for a pretty open leadership race. Brad Wall is someone who comes to mind as a potential star, but who knows.

So most major pundits are predicting a government "reset" this summer with a revamped cabinet and most likely a new speech from the throne to open up the fall session. So, what changes will be made? I have read some articles suggesting Harper will start bringing more women into his cabinet and into more high profile positions. Candice Bergen (formeally Hoeppner) I think will be one of those women, most likely taking Vic Toews spot as Minister of Public Safety. Vic probably is not going to run again, and given his troubles in that portfolio, he will most likely be demoted or maybe even shuffled entirely out. Joan Crockatt didn't run in that hot by-election just to be a backbencher. I think she is definitely going to get into cabinet, the question is what position? Probably something midlevel to start. Shelly Glover seems like a likely candidate to get a cabinet seat too given how visible she has been since 2011 as parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Finance. In terms of whose out, I already mentioned Vic Toews, but I think the axe will finally fall on Peter MacKay. I mean, he will remain in cabinet most likely, but he will lose defence. Peter Kent I think may be on the chopping block, but with the Harper government's dminished focus on the envrionment, they are maybe fine with him there. Jim Flaherty is a possibility, but only by choice. He has that position for as long as he wants it as long as Harper is PM. Flaherty probably won't run again in 2015 though and then there is the health concerns. Any other thoughts?

I don't think he will step down this summer, but its not out of the realm of possibility that Harper does not fight the election as leader in 2015. I think it all depends on how real this Trudeaumania 2.0 really is. I think there will definitely be a honeymoon effect once Trudeau is appointed leader, but does that last? You have to think the Conservative war room is just chomping at the bit to define him very early... and Trudeau has enough public gaffes over the years to definitely help them with that. However, if Trudeau can consolidate his celebrity into actual firm support heading into 2015, I think the chances increase substantially that Harper gracefully exits in late 2014 making way for Kim Campbell 2.0. Notwithstanding the Trudeau issue, slight cracks are definitely emerging within the Conservative caucus and that is a sign it may be time for the leader to consider stepping down, considering how airtight that caucus has been since Harper became PM. Harper is still young enough to have a career outside public life, he may take that chance. Harper is if anything, a very intelligent man. I am sure he is weighing this decision as tactically as he has weight any political decision in his career.

It all started due to the NDP putting Finance Critic Julien up on that rant for 3 days taking away debate time for other parties. Bob Rae called Mulcair "Mini-Harper" and said he wouldn't know the truth if he ran into it in broad daylight. Mulcair said the Liberals as usual have nothing concrete to say on the budget because they agree with it. He also pointed out Rae may be frustrated due to Justin Trudeau's dominance in the spotlight for different reasons as of late. Could get interesting http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/04/pol-rae-speech.html

That is a rather insensitive comment. Being the communications director of any world leader I would think would be a stressful job. My guess though since the PMO controls messaging so tightly it would be stressful having to deal with the outside media as well.

Seems like a good time as it would appear they are steamrolling to a majority mandate next year. In terms of Mulcair's shadow cabinet, I think what the OP said about trimming its size down is probably a good thing. Make it appear like a cabinet in waiting. It will be more cohesive as opposed to multiple people showing up on the talk shows to talk about the same issue in a given week. The Libby Davies thing is interesting, is she just in this spot in the interim or will Mulcair keep her? I think he will have to do something huge for Nathan Cullen since clearly his supporters put him over the top. However, he needs to have someone from the left-side of that party to keep unity. Nash I think will definitely come in with a top critic position, so that could appease the left. It will be interesting. Angus clearly played his card right too at the convention immediately going to Mulcair after Dewar dropped out. Angus has been one of the most visible MPs the last few months too. He will be rewarded.

It appears the litmus test for a Harper minister to be canned is either leaving sensitive materials in your significant others apartment who may or may not be tied to biker gangs. Unfortunately, rightly or wrongly, with only a Quebec caucus of 5 members, Paradis is staying in the cabinet.

Its been stated here and by commentators everywhere, but a Mulcair win this weekend was the worst possible outcome for the Liberals. I can't get that image out of my mind yesterday as Rae came out to speak after QP and all the reporters stampeding over to Mulcair once he came out to speak. The over-inflated Liberal balloon of the last few months has burst. They no longer have a puppet Leader of the Opposition to deal with. They have a strong, articulate speaker who ACTUALLY talks about policies. The first thing the Liberals need to do is force Rae to signal his intentions. If he is going to run for the permanent leadership, fess up and get a leadership convention going. The fact no one is publically signalling they will run is quite troubling. It either means they trust Rae to deliver the goods (which I don't think is accurate) or no one wants to leader a third-place party. For all the talk of renewal since last year's vote, all it appears to be is TALK.

Thanks for a mental image I could have done without

It would bound to happen given its profile, but I agree. Also, the CPC, before 2011, usually averaged between 5-10% in this riding. 2011 was considered a watershed for their support here.