Pct2017

As I have said many times, public opinion about the whiny teachers is both irrelevant to the govt and near on impossible to gauge. Our young "teacher" friend Socialist has posted a poll from Ipsos Reid. So, let us compare that poll with the final poll done by that very company before the election here in BC last May. Support teachers - 44% Support govt - 31% Other - 22% Last May final poll done before May 14: Support NDP - 45% Support govt - 37% Other - 18% Actual election results: NDP - 40% Liberal - 44% Other - 16% As you can see, perceived "support" for the whiny teachers and the govt are pretty much in lockstep with the results of the final poll before the election. But, reality is a far different bird. So, once again, if you are the duly elected government and have three years left on your mandate, why do you care about public opinion polls that are inherently inaccurate?

As if we really needed another example of just how out of touch BC's greedy, lazy teachers and their out of touch union is, on Sunday their school counterparts reached a deal with the government after five days of bargaining. No prearranged strike votes, no stomping of feet and holding of breaths, no holding children hostage. And what did they settle for? The same basic deal as is in the table for the whiny teachers right now. The CUPE members who are affected (about 34,000 of them) are the EA's, bus drivers and support workers who work side by side with the whiny teachers. In an absolute stroke of genius to pit union vs BCTF, each member of CUPE who has lost wages due to the whiny teachers rotating strikes was given an "employee support grant" to make up for lost wages. Now, obviously, CUPE could have shown solidarity with the whiny teachers by holding off on this agreement, but they chose to poke the BCTF in the eye by signing now.

Ah yes, it is often the case here in BC where we associate teachers and their union with sacrifice. About as often as the Canucks win Stanley Cups. Just a point of curiosity, why did you not address the poll that you cited which showed little to no support for the teachers?

Interesting piece. So let's summarize what she said:1) when teacher salaries average $71,000/year, some teachers make less than that. Wow, exception deduction. 2) There are not as many teaching jobs as there are BEd grads. Ground breaking news. 3) the little boy in the orange shirt is checking boobies. Ok, she did not say that, but it is pretty funny. 4) She states that teachers do not work 188 days/ year, but offers no evidence. 5) She seems to struggle with the difference between class size and class composition. And the BCTF ain't going to like her solution of hiring non-BCTF EA's. 6) The real funny one is the poll at the bottom of the article. "Are the BCTF's demands reasonable?" 55% no, 39% yes. Socialist, you have personally assured all of us that the public is fully supportive of the teachers, then you lead us to this site. Hmmm, I am confused. Also embedded in the article is a link to another off-ed piece that shreds the BCTF. Thanks for leading me to that one. It has some interesting points.

Well, once again, the age old question for our young friend Socialist: do you even watch the videos you post? We have long since ascertained that you do not read the websites that you post which is no surprise. Reading takes a lot out of you. But to not watch a video is strange. Anyhoo, as per usual, you are missing the big picture. The BCTF could not sit down and script a better plot to vilify themselves than the one they are embarking on. They have been completely outflanked by the government in allowing the entire discussion to be around salaries instead of focusing on class composition. I have said repeatedly that the Liberals are bulletproof in this round of negotiations when it comes to public opinion. But the TF does not enjoy the same luxury. And by allowing the upcoming strike to be focused on their greedy salary demands, they will suffer greatly in the court of public opinion. The other factor that the TF has dropped is timing. By having their hissy fit strike now, they will impact upper grade students immensely. And of course, they loose all leverage in less than three weeks when their annual two month vacation begins. So you screw kids as hard as you can and then go off and enjoy your bloated holiday. Great public relations there. And as I have stated before, if they choose to not negotiate in the summer, what is the message there? We are only capable of negotiating when we can hold small children ransom? As I said, the government must be giddy with just how badly the TF has balled this up. This is a really big game changer going forward. If the public starts demanding major changes to how the teachers and their union conduct themselves, this is a government who will listen.

He's back!! Socialist's mom gave him back computer time. And so is his inane neo-liberal babble. And ,even more in character, he is citing cartoons as reliable sources once again. Nice touch using the Simpsons to further your cause.We really did miss you there young fellow.

I do not like to copy and paste other's work, but once again, I think that the person who wrote this summary of the BCTF and their simple minded members pretty much hit the nail on the head. Enjoy. Just think about it. 1. Union fails to influence the outcome of a provincial election. (Actually, even NDP may have been an enemy of BCTF very soon). 2. Union flames pent up frustration and sense of entitlement in the majority of its ranks (89%). 11% vote against, probably fully aware of consequences and impact on themselves and their customers. 3. Union assumes that public will overwhelmingly support them, The reason is a mystery - I can only offer that the teachers probably felt entitled and just by assumed moral superiority they will get support from public. Union fails to do even the most basic study of public mood and inflames the militant 89% even more. 4. Union picks the worst possible time of the year. The herd, already whipped up in to a war frenzy doesnt pause to think and launches the first grenade. 5. Government has been secretly hoping for a chance to crush the union for years. Sees the best opportunity in decades to completely ruin the union at a time when the least intelligent leader is incharge of the most uncoordinated union ever. 6. BCTF feels entitled to a favorable ruling from LRB, forgetting to check even the most basic labor law on how lockouts work. Teachers get dinged and suddenly realize now they are out of their starbucks budget. 7. Things get worse, parents and students realize the greed and level of selfishness in this strike timing, and anger raises. Government halls are echoing with giggling, laughter while Ikers and his Veep give clueless opposite statements to press. 8. Ikers is desperate and launches a full on strike.and simultaneously acknowledges there is actually no money to support the strike. Fails to check even the most basic rules to labor strike. So the next step is for both the public and the government charter buses and take donations to ship the worst of the lot to Saskatchewan, Alberta and may be NWT and Yukon. This was copied from a contributor on the Global News site.

There is not going to be a mass firing of all teachers in BC. Period. But, what is going to be interesting is just how tolerant the individual teachers are going to be of the real problem, which is the BCTF. The TF has announced that it kind of forgot to gather up a strike fund, so no strike pay for you. But, we are expecting you to be good little soldiers and vote yes to a full strike at a time of year that has maximum effect of screwing the students as hard as possible, particularly those in high school. There is some roulette involved here. Ordinary teachers can finally grow a set and send a message of non-confidence to their union, or they can continue down the current path of being tarred with the same brush as the union. I really do think that the end game for the government is to break the union, both financially and loss of power. This thing could have ended a month ago with simple legislation and lord knows the teachers are accustomed to being legislated back to work here in BC. But, the government is taking a much harder approach this time around and I believe that they believe that the membership will grow weary of the path that the union has embarked upon. And now the union has blinked in stating that it does not have funds to pay even a paltry amount of strike pay. And believe me, nothing speaks more to the heart of a teacher than money. It will be interesting to see if the union executive is held to account on where all of the money went. As I stated earlier, a conservative estimate of annual dues would be $50,000,000, but apparently that is gone. Teachers, time to wakey, wakey. You are getting screwed, but it is not the big bad government that is doing it to you. Hey Socialist, where are you there young fellow? Things are pretty slow around here without your unique view on things. Did mom take away your computer time? Just clean the room and she will give it back.

Let's say you are a teacher (sort of like Socialist, only real) here in BC. You have been paying your beloved union about $1500/year for lord knows how many years. Now, that same union has put you in a position where you will get 10% less pay, you have to strike once every 5 days at $50/day and now the union has announced that they are pretty much broke and will not even be able to afford the $50/day much longer. Apparently they spent their whole budget campaigning against the Liberals last spring, lost, and now have to negotiate with said Liberal Party. And, you knew around last September that at the end of the day, you were going to get the same settlement as every other public sector union, be it through negotiations or legislation. And, given that the union is on the hook for the majority of your bennies, you have to ask yourself if you are actually covered for medical insurance. Even if you are not the sharpest teacher around (and there are plenty vying for that crown), would you not start asking yourself, what the heck is my union doing? The strike vote next week will be interesting. http://www.cknw.com/2014/06/05/bctf-strike-pay-running-low/

And that is a fair assumption. The problem with your suggestion is that the BCTF booked off negotiations over the two week spring break earlier this spring, citing how difficult it would be to contact members. Time will tell, but recent history is not on the side of the whiny teachers. If they do cancel all negotiations for the summer, would that impact your opinion on how determined the union is to get a deal done with minimizing the impact on students?

Can you give us a list of where you would take revenues from? Please try to remember that stadium roofs and Olympic fixtures are one time expenses, not annual ongoing expenses like the teachers demands. When you answer, you have to rob other ongoing budgets such as healthcare or social services. So which ministry are you proposing gets its budget slashed?

The article said nothing about picketing,but apparently what you are saying is that if the BCTF cannot walk a picket line then they are not capable of negotiating? Thank you for educating me regarding how much they care about the students.

And by the way, just to show you how selfless and earnest our dear teachers and their beloved union are regarding getting a deal done and not impacting the children: "Both the teachers and the government are saying they want a deal by the end of the school year — but what comes next if that doesn’t happen remains unclear. The teachers union says they will not decide until later this month if they will continue to negotiate in July and August if an agreement is not made by the end of June. The Premier said yesterday that *if* a deal is not done by the end of June she hopes the union will keep working at the bargaining table in the summer months." Really? There is some doubt that the teachers should be negotiating through the summer? They have to think about this? Yes, it is all about the kids. But do not ask me to give up some of my bloated holiday time.

This is somewhat antidotical in nature, but during the provincial election last spring here in BC, it appeared that the NDP were about to win a landslide victory. So in March, outgoing BCTF president Susan Lambert rallied the troops at the annual convention with a speech that included the following: “Our job now is to challenge the NDP, possibly our next provincial government, to commit to increase spending on public education — even if that means increasing taxes,” she said, to resounding applause. That go a lot of play out here in the weeks leading up to the May election. I am in no way saying that this was why the NDP eventually got decimated in the election, but I doubt that Adrian Dix sent Lambert a thank you note.

From the CBC article cited above regarding the 10% paycut: "The B.C. Teachers' Federation calls the pay cut a punitive action that is only escalating the dispute, but the government insists it's just applying pressure to reach a deal." So, let's see. The BCTF calls a strike vote in March, before it has even tabled it's initial offer. The BCTF triggers phase one of it's job action shortly after taking two weeks off from negotiations because, well really, who could possibly expect teachers to show up for negotiations during Spring Break. The BCTF decides to proceed to phase two (rotating strikes), but fully expects the government to do nothing in exchange. As I have stated previously, trying to negotiate with the BCTF must be considered one of the the 10 most frustrating jobs on the face of the Earth. If you don't give us exactly what we demand, then you are a bully. If we initiate job action and you reciprocate, then it is you who is escalating the dispute. If you put an offer on the table that has been accepted by 100% of all other public sector unions then you are not being fair. I think that Fassbender and Cameron deserve to be sainted when all of this is over.

I'll take that as a big old negatory on the stats course. But, I would be most pleased to hear your opinion on why public opinion is so important to people like you and Socialist. Are you expecting a referendum or a snap election over the whiny teachers contract?

Actually, I believe that I have stated very, very clearly that it matters naught who is "winning" public support in this dispute, but maybe I used big words that were hard to understand. As for your assertion that it is ok to sample only part of a population to get a statistically valid poll, all I can do is shake my head and wonder. Parents are not the only stakeholders, that is unless you support the notion that education should be run by user fees. If not, then all tax payers should be considered the population to sample from, and if part of that population chooses to not participate, then the sample is invalid and statistically rendered useless. It is the conundrum that all polling companies are wrestling with. Point of curiosity, did you ever take any university level Statistics courses? And if you did, did you pass?

Maybe I am not explaining very well just what it was to what went wrong in the polling here in BC, and I suspect the same problem happened in the Alberta election polling which was similarly completely wrong. In order for a polling company such as Angus Reid to conduct a statistically accurate poll, they have to be able to get a representative sample of the entire population. That is Statistics 101. After the BC election, the polling companies hypothesized that what went wrong is that they were not able to access the older voters while the younger voters were more willing to participate in opinion polls. So, by natural extension, the polls moved from right to left. But when the actual election happened, not only did the older voters come out to vote, the younger voters tended to stay home. This explanation is not a theory made up by yours truly. It was the best explanation provided by both the polling companies as well as the news media. By extension, any polls done to elicit opinion regarding the teachers will end up with the same built in bias as discussed above. BTW Michael, BC and Alberta are separate provinces, so that would make two massive failures in the polling industry. But, as I have stated all along, who cares about any of this vis a vis the BCTF. Public opinion is not going to be a deciding factor, even if you could measure it accurately.

Last year, all polling in BC had the common prediction of a landslide NDP victory. Not even close. And those polls stayed consistent right up to May 13. It made for some of the funniest tv that I have ever watched during the results. You had all of these talking heads discussing who would be in Adrian Dix's cabinet and who should replace Clark, but meanwhile scrolling below them were results that showed the Liberals leading by substantial margins. You have questioned why I stated that all opinion polls are now garbage. Well, the BC election and the Alberta election have proven that statement without a doubt. I can appreciate that if you do not live out here then you would not be as aware of this. The bigger question is what happened to the effectiveness of polling. In the aftermath of last May, the general consensus is that the older demographic simply does not participate in opinion polls whereas younger ideologues still do. So your population to sample from is no longer representative. Can I assume that you live in Ontario? If so, look at the correlation between the upcoming election results and the opinion polls. I would bet dollars to donuts that there will be very little relevancy. As for the idea that polls done on specific issues like the one being discussed here are somehow more accurate, well for the reasons stated above that is incorrect.

Well, in actual fact, all opinion polls are garbage. That has been proven without a doubt in the last two provincial elections out west. But, to be specific, The Tyee is a very left wing website that panders to it's NDP audience accordingly. They posted a write-in poll which young Socialist (notice how I don't call you Plink a Plink anymore since WCR convinced you to drop the neo-lib crap) has bought as biblical in nature. So, your audience is all lefties, and you have a write in poll, what do you think the results are going to be? To put this in prospective, would you see a write in poll by the Fraser Institute which would no doubt show that the "public" is 95% supportive of the government's actions as anything but garbage?

He also asked me to pass on to the following message, and I quote: "Son, that is Mr Iker to you. After you finish grade school, you can call me Jim"

Hey Socialist, Jim Iker just called and asked me to pass on a message to you. He said would you please switch sides on this debate. He seems to feel they will do better if you side with the government.

May 28 - According to Socialist: If there was a referendum on the Job Action, I would say around 70% of the public would favour the BCTF. Mythical support for the BCTF continues to fall, according to expert pollster Socialist.

Further to the thought of what would it take to change this very broken relationship between the BCTF and whatever government happens to be in power, here is another thought. The TF should change their own election procedures to one member, one vote. Right now, a very rabid, almost Marxist party (think Socialist only actual grown-ups) control the union and have decreed that it will be more of a political movement than an actual trade union. How do they continue to control the TF? Well, leadership elections are done by local representatives, much like a political party. And the group that runs the TF is very well organized. However, if each member had a vote for the leader, all of that organization would not mean anything as it would then be a democratic process. A few years back, a moderate from within the TF ran in opposition to Susan Lambert. He ran on the platform that the TF needed to moderate it's behavior and maybe win back some respect from both the public and the government. He lost, but I believe that he lost because the TF had made it impossible for him to win. Until the BCTF has leadership that acknowledges that they need to step into the current day and conduct themselves more like every other union in the province, there will be no fixing this relationship.