Political Role Playing Exercise

[Zerozen Ones]

Greetings everybody,

As this is my first post I'd like to save this line to hail your community.

I come here looking for a learned opinion on a discussion I had with friends. We were discussing the rise of China as a super-power and how a conflict with the US for global influence would unfold. None of us have any academic political or economic formation. Although I do not know in which way, I have heard that China has a significant hold on US economy. I also understand that the US is a critical market for Chinese economical growth. All in all, we were forced to admit that we knew way too little of the subject for our extrapolations to be meaningful. Hence I was curious to see what would more knowledgeable people have to say on the matter.

So I'll bring the question to you in the manner of a political game of "hypothetical scenario".

As the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, how would you go about bringing down the USA?

Your goal is the maximum possible diminution of the relevancy of the United States on the world stage with China emerging as the new leader. Ideology would be your principal driving force (if not, what else?). Your scenario would likely unfold over the course of a few years, with military power not playing a direct role, or if so not until the last phases of your plan. This is how I bring the question but you are welcomed to take all the liberties you want with it.

Eager to read your replies.

... oh and don't worry, I am not a member of the CCP in disguise , just a guy from Halifax NS hehe!

Also, if you know of any other forums where I would get interesting replies feel free to suggest!

Thanks!

[geoffrey]

Sounds like homework.

[jbg]

I come here looking for a learned opinion on a discussion I had with friends. We were discussing the rise of China as a super-power and how a conflict with the US for global influence would unfold. None of us have any academic political or economic formation. Although I do not know in which way, I have heard that China has a significant hold on US economy. I also understand that the US is a critical market for Chinese economical growth. All in all, we were forced to admit that we knew way to little of the subject for our extrapolations to be meaningful. Hence I was curious to see what would more knowledgeable people have to say on the matter.

I'm going to buck conventional wisdom on that one. China's industries are raking it in through slave labor. The one thing Henry Ford taught us is that the workers have to prosper in order to create demand for product, and a stable economy.

China's industrial leaders are earning huge profits (but less than they think), in the short run. Why do I say "less than they think"? Because I represent, personally, $6 million of defaulted debt to Chinese banks, from ethnically Chinese import/export companies. Bank lending is based on politics, and not economics. A combination of lack of domestic demand, bad debt and, eventually, new sources of slave labor will bring the economy down. Indonesia and Malaysia, circa 1997, will look like a Sunday school picnic.

[Zerozen Ones]

A combination of lack of domestic demand, bad debt and, eventually, new sources of slave labor will bring the economy down.

Thank you for your reply. This indeed sounds like a plausible scenario. What would then be the economic repercussion in the US and the world of a giant like China going down in flame? Who would benefit and lose the most?

Anybody else has a different scenario?

[Figleaf]

As the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, how would you go about bringing down the USA?

1. Send money to the Republican Party.

2. Continue buying US bonds (until the endgame).

3. Encourage any third world military interventions the US wants to carry out (but not any involving substantial coalition groups). In particular, urge the US to put troops on the ground in Iran.

4. Keep building China's economy and military strength.

5. Improve education and innovation in China.

[Charles Anthony]

I have never heard of a "General Secretary" before. What is his job description in China, anyway?

What would then be the economic repercussion in the US and the world of a giant like China going down in flame? Who would benefit and lose the most?

Anybody else has a different scenario?

You are quick to change the aim of this hypothetical game.

Here is something you might want to try in your hypothetical game:

how to deal with a so-called "enemy of the people" during the Cultural Revolution

Since you are "just a guy from Halifax NS hehe" I am sure you have never seen that strategy before. It must be completely foreign to you.

Sounds like homework.

Do you mean like an assignment?

[geoffrey]

Sounds like homework.

Do you mean like an assignment?

Indeed.

[leonardcohen]

how to deal with a so-called "enemy of the people" during the Cultural Revolution

I've just read this and all i can say is wow,the scale of the brutality,the complete absence of humanity is breathtaking,probably not a surprise to most here on this forum,why is it the more i read of history,the less i think that we can solve todays' problems,sorry my cynical side is coming through.

They are right in one respect,if they want to maintain their hold over the people,they will have to continue the brutal treatment of their own countrymen,because the moment the regime loosens the grip of power,retribution will be swift and probably even more brutal.

[jbg]

I stopped reading midway through. Totally revolting.

Why is it the UN spends its time on Israel, with this kind of horror being routine?

[Zerozen Ones]

how to deal with a so-called "enemy of the people" during the Cultural Revolution

Horrifying/interesting indeed. Also thank you for this source I had not encountered before, I will make sure to explore it.

Maybe I should clarify that in no way am I enthusiastic about the rise of Chinese power. I pity the billions who inhabit that land.

However I do find it a fascinating, albeit cruel, political laboratory. It is a radically different way of conducting a civilization and I am quite curious to see what kind of society it will lead to in the long run. Russia is also interesting for the same reason with its strange democratic/authoritarian regime. Both systems are undergoing reconstructions as they are attempting to adjust to the new realities of the 21st century, while I see the western world as comparatively much more static.

It is very likely that the coming of age of fields such as biotech, nanotechn, high performance computing and robotics (AI!?), as well as phenomenons like climate change will drastically alter not only our way of life but the world we live in. Science and modernity are bringing accelerating change, and I see few efforts in my society to adapt to this new reality. If anything, the most flagrantly observable sociological shift is a reemergence of supernatural values straight out of the middle-age and paleolithic... scary.

I think it is possible that societies that are more flexible and proactive towards upcoming changes may as a whole fare better, or at least be more stable. I do not however envy the faith of the people of these countries, and in this may reside the decisive factor of history yet to be made.

[Charles Anthony]

Horrifying/interesting indeed. Also thank you for this source I had not encountered before, I will make sure to explore it.

What exactly do you find horrifying/interesting: the source or the information?

[Zerozen Ones]

Horrifying/interesting indeed. Also thank you for this source I had not encountered before, I will make sure to explore it.

What exactly do you find horrifying/interesting: the source or the information?

... The information. Horrifying for its ruthlessness but somewhat interesting as a process of societal structuring.

[Zerozen Ones]

2. Continue buying US bonds (until the endgame).

I have heard of this before. Very intersting. What hold do these bond really provide the Chinese on the US economy and is it realistic to think they may eventually wage them as an economical weapon?

What would actually happen if they decided to cash them all at once?

(or is this how it works?)

Members from the US, any input here?

[jbg]

2. Continue buying US bonds (until the endgame).

I have heard of this before. Very intersting. What hold do these bond really provide the Chinese on the US economy and is it realistic to think they may eventually wage them as an economical weapon?

What would actually happen if they decided to cash them all at once?

(or is this how it works?)

Members from the US, any input here?

It is hardly a realistic weapon. The US debt market is big and highly liquid. The US economy is still one of the biggest and most successful in the world. There simply are no debt issuers big enough and wealthy enough to give an assured return to those who demand one.

If the Chinese were somehow to dump their holdings, interest rates might rise for a day or two. Because it's a liquid and fungible market, the rates would quickly settle to the same premium over inflation they held previously.

Remember, the Chinese would have to buy some other income-producing assets, boosting their price. The resulting sellers of those assets would likely buy the U.S. securities sold by the Chinese.

[Riverwind]

It is hardly a realistic weapon. The US debt market is big and highly liquid. The US economy is still one of the biggest and most successful in the world. There simply are no debt issuers big enough and wealthy enough to give an assured return to those who demand one.

The debt is also held in US dollars - a massive sell off the bonds would trigger a collapse of the dollar which would, in turn, reduce the value of those assets.

[jbg]

It is hardly a realistic weapon. The US debt market is big and highly liquid. The US economy is still one of the biggest and most successful in the world. There simply are no debt issuers big enough and wealthy enough to give an assured return to those who demand one.

The debt is also held in US dollars - a massive sell off the bonds would trigger a collapse of the dollar which would, in turn, reduce the value of those assets.

Again, the liquidity of the bond and dollar market make this unlikely. If interest rates rise, the dollar rises.

[Riverwind]

Again, the liquidity of the bond and dollar market make this unlikely. If interest rates rise, the dollar rises.

I would not discount the possibility of a sudden and large correction in the US dollar. However, such a correction would create short term chaos and would hurt holders of US assets outside the US more than it would hurt Americans.