New Poll Shows Liberals Still Lead Vs United Right

[Neal.F.]

Internet Jourlaist Pierre Bourque ( a defeated Liberal candidate in the 1993 election) whose site no doubt many of you visit has at this moment, a headline that reads " Libs 46 Right 29%"

"Martin Libs would crush a United Right under Harris"

Now lets cut through the fog: what do you suppose would happen with a 10% voter swing?

Also why are the Liberals exxaggerating so much?

because they know, that if the united right is not derailed, they may actually lose the election.

If they weren't worried, they'd ignore a poll which showed the right at 29%... Wait... werent the lying Liberals at 51% last week?

Now cut to the actual NAtional Post Article that is linked to:

The headline reads: United right can hurt Martin: poll

Merged parties would steal votes from Liberals

The poll makes no mention of Harris, but rather says this:

The results were 49% for the Liberals to 29% for the new party with Mr. Harper as leader, and 50% Liberal to 28% Conservative under Peter MacKay, the current Tory leader.

It also says: Fears of a Tory exodus to the Liberals were partially borne out by the poll, which suggested that about a quarter of the current Tory vote would leak to the Liberals.

But the new party would gain far more Liberals than it would lose Conservatives, the survey indicated.

"Many of the people joining the PC party are PCs who have been sitting on the sideline waiting for their party to do this and now they're back involved."

yes indeed... it seems there is now PANIC in the Liberal ranks.... And just shows how utterly useless to the cause of government change are "red Tories"

[sir_springer]

Flipped through a bunch of articles this morning on polling results.

Here's my conclusion:

About 50% of Canadians are either sleepwalking through life, or are stupider than a sack of hammers.

These are the ones who indicate that they will vote for what has become the most arrogant, corrupt, irresponsible, scandal ridden, useless, rotten, just plain f**king awful collection of clowns and outright assholes anyone can remember in our lifetimes...

But won't vote for the CA or the new Conservative Party because it's too "extremist".

Christ, I read this crap, and I think to myself; "What the hell has gone wrong with this country? And why in hell do I even care any more?"

:angry:

Anyway, now that I got that off my chest this morning...

One thing did emerge, found in the Compas polling conducted by the National Post.

Whether Harris or Harper or even MacKay is leading the party, the results are the same. About 29%, 28% for MacKay.

Harris actually polls lower in Ontario than in the rest of the country.

This is an indication that leadership is not so much an issue at this point as is desire for an alternative to the Libs. Or, IOW, about 30% of voters would vote Conservative, no matter who is leading the party.

The relevant question emerging from this for us is this:

Which potential leader has upside from here?

And which one does not?

It is obvious to me, from what I've seen lately, that Harris does not.

Here's the difference between Harris and Harper:

Harris is well known in Ontario...and Harper is not.

Harris is very unlikely to increase his support in Ontario from these levels, there is no mystery in Ontario about Mike Harris. You either love him or you hate him, simple as that...and it appears considerably more Ontarians hate him.

On the other hand, Harper remains a tad bit of a unknown quantity...which basically means that he still has potential upside to tap into.

To me, considering Harper's thus far displayed remarkable talents, I have to assume that his support...as leader of the new party...will only grow in Ontario, as well as points east.

The message thus being, if we want this thing to get anywhere beyond what is already a given...about 30%...in the near future, we'd be wise to elect Harper.

And we'd be, bluntly putting it, crapping in our own cornflakes to elect Harris.

*ahem*

All of this, of course, is predicated upon the assumption that I still care any more as to what happens to this dumb-ass country.

I'll now depart to return to my ongoing state of confliction within myself between my "patriotic Canadian" side and my "screw 'em, who needs this crap anyway, separatist" side.

[Neal.F.]

Here's another poll the Lieberals don't want to see, or the rest of us to see either....

Four in 10 would vote for merged party: poll

CTV.ca News Staff

While support for a merged Canadian Alliance-Progressive Conservative Party has slipped slightly since early October, a recent polls suggests four in ten Canadians would still vote for the united party in the next federal election.

The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows that 39 per cent of those polled said they would likely vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada. However, that's a decline of seven points since early October, when the merger was just speculation.

"It should be noted, however, that at this level of support, they could present a formidable challenge to the governing Liberal Party," an Ipsos-Reid news release said.

A challenge is exactly what Alliance Leader Stephen Harper and Tory Leader Peter MacKay were planning when they inked the merger proposal in mid-October.

"This division of conservatives is ending. Our swords will henceforth be pointed at the Liberals, not at each other," Harper said on Oct. 16.

There are problems, however. While Harper has been able to grab support for the merger from his caucus, MacKay is having a harder time. Contributing to his dissent is David Orchard, whose support at the Tory leadership convention ensured his leadership win.

The deal MacKay agreed to with Orchard included a pledge not to engage in unite-the-right talks. Now Orchard is calling on Tory MPs to reject the merger.

"This creature ... is an illegitimate creation conceived in deception and born in betrayal," Orchard said after the merger was announced.

That might not be the only problem. The Ipsos-Reid poll shows Canadians believe the Alliance will continue to have problems trying to break through in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec.

Seven in ten (68%) of those surveyed said the new Conservative Party is just the Alliance taking over the Progressive Conservatives. One in four (26%) disagree.

Regionally, Quebecers were the most likely to feel this way, with 73 per cent reporting such a response. Atlantic Canada came in with 61 per cent and Alberta 58 per cent. Ontario reflects the national average.

Regardless of the problems, the two sides seem determined to try and see the merger through. The timetable calls for a ratification vote by the respective members by Dec. 12. It also aims to pick a new leader by March 21.

There has been much speculation that former Ontario premier Mike Harris will run for the leadership of the party. He has said he would more than likely make a decision in early November.

According to the Ipsos-Reid poll, 32 per cent of those surveyed said they would seriously consider voting for the Conservative Party if Harris becomes the new leader. About half (46%) strongly disagree they would vote for the new party under Harris.

Others eyeing the leadership bid include MacKay, Harper, Ontario Health Minister Tony Clement and former Alberta treasurer Jim Dinning.

New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord and former Alliance leader Stockwell Day have already ruled themselves out.

The Ipsos-Reid poll was conducted between Oct. 21-24. The telephone survey is based ona randomly selected sample of 1,056 adults. Results are considered accurate to plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[theWatcher]

Polls right now are not going to be too helpful because of all the uncertainty and change going on. Many people still believe for instance, that the merger will still fall through, numbers after December 12 will be more realistic.

I saw an interesting poll that showed that the Conservative party would get more liberal votes then they would end up losing (from red tories going to the liberals) So its a net gain in votes after a merger.

But a merger will accomplish one thing that the pollsters don't seem to be too focused on at the moment. And that is to create a single unified alternative that is viable in all areas of the country.

Even with a spread as large as 10 points Canadians will realize that yes there is a chance to punt the bozo's out of office and a 10 point swing is trivial to make up during an election campaign.

In fact if I was a Liberal I would be worried about how small of a lead that they actually have. Once Martin has to actually open his mouth and say something I don't see his fortunes rising, he has promised everything to everybody and will have to start delivering on those promises some time soon.

And the fact that the red tory faction have gone so rabid over fighting the merger gives me a warm fuzzy feeling in my heart and a renewed hope that we can accomplish great things with the new party.

And if the merger falls through the PC's are toast. The "no" faction will be out for Mackay's head and/or leaving to join the Liberals. The "yes" faction will probably make the merger happen anyways by joining the Alliance.

I don't see any possible way for them to recover from a no vote.

I wonder if those who are so vehemently against this have considered that fact or has all thought and reasoning left them as they stubbornly drag everything down. Do they hate the Alliance so much that they would kill their own party rather than merge.

It's sad really.

[RT_1984]

Ipos-Reid has never has never had anything good to say about the right. They are always the ones to emphasize the bad news and if you listen to them on tv, then you will clearly hear their bias. They also do 20 million dollars a year of business with the Liberal Party of Canada. It should also be noted that the Liberals always ride high in polls between elections but then drop during the election. The opposite has always happened for the CA.

[Goldie]

30% of Canadians will vote for a party with no leader and doesn't even exist than vote for the Liberals with Paul Martin, far better than the NDP and not much worse than Cretien in 1997. Why so sad springer, it a fantastic start.