Pollster predicts cliffhanger at Liberal convention.

[Ricki Bobbi]

From today's Red Star. Link

I think the respondents are 100% wrong in this one.

Ignatieff's strongest asset, said Graves, is that he's seen as having the best chance of winning an election against Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

If anything Iggy will be the easiest one for us to beat in the general.

[cybercoma]

Actually, according to one of the polls gerry posted, Bob Rae has the best chance of beating Harper.

According to that same poll, none of the hopefuls actually have a chance against the Prime Minister.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Actually, according to one of the polls gerry posted, Bob Rae has the best chance of beating Harper.

I actually agree with Gerry.

[Guest Warwick Green]

From today's Red Star. Link

I think the respondents are 100% wrong in this one.

Ignatieff's strongest asset, said Graves, is that he's seen as having the best chance of winning an election against Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

If anything Iggy will be the easiest one for us to beat in the general.

No way the Libbers will elect Iggy. Israel committing war crimes, Quebec a nation - just too unpredictable for a party that believes that it has a divine right to govern.

[Ricki Bobbi]

No way the Libbers will elect Iggy. Israel committing war crimes, Quebec a nation - just too unpredictable for a party that believes that it has a divine right to govern.

I believe you are right, but hope you are wrong.

I think that Rae is their best choice for them.

But if I had to put money on it I would guess that Dion wins on the third ballot.

[Canuck E Stan]

No way the Libbers will elect Iggy. Israel committing war crimes, Quebec a nation - just too unpredictable for a party that believes that it has a divine right to govern.

I believe you are right, but hope you are wrong.

I think that Rae is their best choice for them.

But if I had to put money on it I would guess that Dion wins on the third ballot.

So that means you don't give that naked Fridge Magnet Brison a chance on attracting some of the negative votes from the others

[Slavik44]

No way the Libbers will elect Iggy. Israel committing war crimes, Quebec a nation - just too unpredictable for a party that believes that it has a divine right to govern.

I believe you are right, but hope you are wrong.

I think that Rae is their best choice for them.

But if I had to put money on it I would guess that Dion wins on the third ballot.

So that means you don't give that naked Fridge Magnet Brison a chance on attracting some of the negative votes from the others

Hell, I would take Brison over Rae or Ignatief. I never really even liked Dion, but the more he keeps his mouth shut, the more I like him over his competition.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Hell, I would take Brison over Rae or Ignatief. I never really even liked Dion, but the more he keeps his mouth shut, the more I like him over his competition.

I have a feeling Dion might win.

As much as there hasn't been much talk of the old Chretien-Martiin schism it still exists. More and more looks like the old Chretienites are going with Iggy. The old Martinites are more fractured, but there are a few of them with Dion now. I suspect they will coalesce around Dion after the first ballot and that's why I think he will win.

Rae really is the best choice for the Liberals. He'll do the most at healing the rift, another plus to his candidacy for the Liberals.

Go Dion go!

I look forward to watching the convention. A great speech, or terrible speech could change the balance. We haven't had a leadership race this interesting for a major party since 1983.

[normanchateau]

Rae really is the best choice for the Liberals. He'll do the most at healing the rift, another plus to his candidacy for the Liberals.

Go Dion go!

I look forward to watching the convention. A great speech, or terrible speech could change the balance. We haven't had a leadership race this interesting for a major party since 1983.

I disagree that Rae is the best choice for the Liberals. If I were a Conservative, I'd be hoping for a Rae victory. His NDP days will be exploited by the Conservatives in the same way that Harper's Reform/Alliance/National Citizens Coaltion background was exploited by the Liberals.

Dion will be a far more difficult target for the Conservatives.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I disagree that Rae is the best choice for the Liberals. If I were a Conservative, I'd be hoping for a Rae victory. His NDP days will be exploited by the Conservatives in the same way that Harper's Reform/Alliance/National Citizens Coaltion background was exploited by the Liberals.

Dion will be a far more difficult target for the Conservatives.

I still think the residual effect against Rae in Ontario is overplayed.

Sure there are lots of Ontarians who don't like him. But remember that in 1997 Chretien got 101 out of 103 Ontario seats with less than 50% of the vote in the province.

The Libs still got about 40% of the vote in the province in January. Rae can get back 3 o 5 points from the Liberal-NDP swing voters and get 60 to 70 seats in the province. Quebeckers like him. He'll play well in BC.

The staunch anti-Rae types in Ontario already vote Conservative so it doesn't help us.

[Canuck E Stan]

The staunch anti-Rae types in Ontario already vote Conservative so it doesn't help us.

Huh?

[Topaz]

I think Iggy came back to start trouble in Canada, espeically with Quebec. Bring up separation and get things going, every province starts fighting about it. He for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and probably for going into Iran!! He's too American now and should be aleader of a party in Canada. If he got in, I vote against him and not for Harper either!!

[normanchateau]

The staunch anti-Rae types in Ontario already vote Conservative so it doesn't help us.

Huh?

Makes sense to me.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The staunch anti-Rae types in Ontario already vote Conservative so it doesn't help us.

Huh?

Makes sense to me.

Thanks Normie.

Stan, to clarify. The only people in Ontario who wouldn't vote Liberal because Rae is the leader already vote Conservative. So there won't be any electoral advantage for the Conservatives in Ontario if Rae wins.

[cybercoma]

Thanks Normie.

Stan, to clarify. The only people in Ontario who wouldn't vote Liberal because Rae is the leader already vote Conservative. So there won't be any electoral advantage for the Conservatives in Ontario if Rae wins.

Not true. My father is a hardcore Liberal supporter and is a public service employee. For the first time in his life he won't be voting Liberal if Bob Rae is the leader....I'm pretty certain.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Not true. My father is a hardcore Liberal supporter and is a public service employee. For the first time in his life he won't be voting Liberal if Bob Rae is the leader....I'm pretty certain.

Is he going to vote Conservative?

[cybercoma]

Not true. My father is a hardcore Liberal supporter and is a public service employee. For the first time in his life he won't be voting Liberal if Bob Rae is the leader....I'm pretty certain.

Is he going to vote Conservative?

I highly doubt he'd vote NDP.

[Guest Warwick Green]

Thanks Normie.

Stan, to clarify. The only people in Ontario who wouldn't vote Liberal because Rae is the leader already vote Conservative. So there won't be any electoral advantage for the Conservatives in Ontario if Rae wins.

Not true. My father is a hardcore Liberal supporter and is a public service employee. For the first time in his life he won't be voting Liberal if Bob Rae is the leader....I'm pretty certain.

I see it that way too. There are Libs who just will not vote for Rae but would vote for Dion, Iggy etc. Rae wins, then so do the Tories in ON.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I see it that way too. There are Libs who just will not vote for Rae but would vote for Dion, Iggy etc. Rae wins, then so do the Tories in ON.

I wonder how many there are out there. What if this group all votes Green instead?

There will definitely be some NDP who vote Liberal because of Rae.

I honestly don't think the number in either group will be very large, probly will cancel each other out.

[normanchateau]

I see it that way too. There are Libs who just will not vote for Rae but would vote for Dion, Iggy etc. Rae wins, then so do the Tories in ON.

I wonder how many there are out there. What if this group all votes Green instead?

There will definitely be some NDP who vote Liberal because of Rae.

I honestly don't think the number in either group will be very large, probly will cancel each other out.

I think Rae will face an uphill battle. What are your objections to Dion other than he's a Liberal?

[Ricki Bobbi]

I think Rae will face an uphill battle. What are your objections to Dion other than he's a Liberal?

Why do I see Dion as easy to beat for the Conservatives?

The tough to understand English hurts him on the campaign trail. (While it worked for le petit 'gar, it doesn't work for a university professor to speak the most common offical language in the country so poorly.)

He isn't well liked in his home province.

He has very little appeal to centrist Canadians.

He is the only serious candidate who is truly less charismatic than Harper.

[geoffrey]

Dion policy-wise would scare off a few from the business side of the party that remains.

I honestly still stand behind Kennedy as the most candidate most able to make gains for the Liberals. In Ontario, he's very strong. In the West, he's strong. He's a little weaker in Quebec, but do you really expect the Liberals to make gains in Quebec this election with anyone?! A pro-Iraq campaigner? Bob Rae... maybe.

But is the few Quebec seats gained with Rae worth the many they lose in Ontario with Rae. With Kennedy, Quebec stays as is, and Ontario is a pick up of a few... maybe a couple in Edmonchuk.

[Ricki Bobbi]

But is the few Quebec seats gained with Rae worth the many they lose in Ontario with Rae. With Kennedy, Quebec stays as is, and Ontario is a pick up of a few... maybe a couple in Edmonchuk.

No way there is a "couple" of seats to be picked up in Edmonton. Under any Liberal leader.

The only potential vulnerable seat is Edmonton Strathcona. Word is Rahim Jaffer has matured a lot as caucus chair and is doing well. He will probably work harder in the spring election than he has in any previous election.

The Liberals and NDP smell blood and will both probably put up strong candidates. That Duncan woman again for the dippers and who knows for the Libs. Two viable candidates hurts the left in that riding.

Rahim wins again easily. None of the other seats are at all vulnerable. Even the open seats, i.e. Edmonton-St. Alberta or Edmonton-Sherwood Park.

Nope, no matter who the Liberal leader is Alberta stays 100% Conservative.

[Guest Warwick Green]

But is the few Quebec seats gained with Rae worth the many they lose in Ontario with Rae.

Are they really going to lose a lot of seats in Ontario with Rae? I remember the bastard because Bill 40 made my job a lot harder. But do Ontarians still remember the socialist interregnum enough to go out and vote against him?

IMO, both Rae and Iggy are soiled goods and Libs are now looking at Dion and Kennedy.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Are they really going to lose a lot of seats in Ontario with Rae? I remember the bastard because Bill 40 made my job a lot harder. But do Ontarians still remember the socialist interregnum enough to go out and vote against him?

IMO, both Rae and Iggy are soiled goods and Libs are now looking at Dion and Kennedy.

I don't know about that. Rae and Iggy control a majority of the delegates between them.

I definitley cannot see Kennedy winning. I could see Kennedy supporting Dion on the third ballot.

Now that people see Dion as the emerging alternative to Iggy he has become a target for a lot of attacks.

There are so many things we can't judge as outsiders. How effective have campaigns been at wooing delegates for second ballot support?

What are Dryden, Hall-Findlay, Brison and Volpe going to do?

I think it is an interesting to note that the four candidates who have dropped out of the race have all supported Rae.

Maybe David Orchard's support puts Rae over the top!