North Korea Conducts Nuclear Test

[jdobbin]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15190745/

Looks like they finally did it.

How do you think the U.S. will respond?

[Riverwind]

Looks like they finally did it.

Great news. International dipolomatic consensus on what do to about North Korea has been difficult to find because nobody knew for sure whether they had nukes. Now that question resolved I hope China and South Korea will be more willing to impose economic sanctions that will force the North Korean gov't to make real changes.

[B. Max]

Apparently there has been no confirmation. The USGS has said no seismic activity in the area.

Go figure.

[jdobbin]

Great news. International dipolomatic consensus on what do to about North Korea has been difficult to find because nobody knew for sure whether they had nukes. Now that question resolved I hope China and South Korea will be more willing to impose economic sanctions that will force the North Korean gov't to make real changes.

I wonder if sanctions can work on North Korea. They are so isolated as it is.

[jdobbin]

Apparently there has been no confirmation. The USGS has said no seismic activity in the area.

Go figure.

I saw that. Japanese scientists also have monitoring devices. Maybe they picked up the test.

[August1991]

Incidentally, explosions have different seismic signatures from earthquakes. It is possible however that North Korea detonated a large conventional device underground:

At regional distances, the seismic recordings of earthquakes and explosions have some subtle differences. The differences in the seismic recordings arise from the fundamental differences in the source of the signal. Explosions exert a primarily compressive motion over a relatively small volume of rock. Earthquakes, on the other hand, have a shearing motion along extended fault surfaces.

Link

This link concerns specifically whether it would be possible to distinguish between a conventional explosion and a nuclear explosion:

In fact, the Intelligence Community recently reevaluated its verification capabilities regarding such tests, specifically those conducted by Russia. The conclusion: these events fall into a gray area in which the CIA cannot reliably distinguish between a conventional explosion and a low-level nuclear test, or even natural seismic activities. In other words, the CIA does not claim to have conclusive data one way or the other. As a senior United States official commented, "Tests at these kinds of levels are difficult to characterize in an exacting manner, and that is a major challenge to the intelligence community" [Washington Post, 10/3/99]. While neither Russia nor China has ratified the CTBT, both have signed the treaty and have promised to adhere to a testing moratorium.

The evidence, including experience from U.S. tests in 1966 and from recent Russian and Chinese tests, show that we are very unlikely to ever have enough technical evidence gathered about a foreign test to persuade ourselves of its true nature. This means a foreign country can design and test whole classes of new nuclear weapons without fear the U.S. will ever agree that the Treaty was violated and that a response was required. To disprove this point, let the Senate debate and decide the nature of the recent Russian nuclear tests.

US Senate

[geoffrey]

Apparently there has been no confirmation. The USGS has said no seismic activity in the area.

Go figure.

I saw that. Japanese scientists also have monitoring devices. Maybe they picked up the test.

Might just be a regional muscle flex. If it turns out they have nuclear weapons, it's time to assasinate that wacko holding the button. He's not mentally stable, what saved us from the Russians was MAD, I don't think this guy can be relied upon to rationalise that thought.

[jdobbin]

Might just be a regional muscle flex. If it turns out they have nuclear weapons, it's time to assasinate that wacko holding the button. He's not mentally stable, what saved us from the Russians was MAD, I don't think this guy can be relied upon to rationalise that thought.

Is he the only one holding the button though? Assassinate the leader and stir up a hornet's nest. I have no idea if that is what would happen but who knows just how loyal the military brass are to the leader. They have very few influences outside of their own country to stay their hand.

I'm sure South Korea are crapping themselves right now.

[August1991]

Is he the only one holding the button though? Assassinate the leader and stir up a hornet's nest.

On the contrary, I think that this regime will be forgotten within a few months of its demise leaving little or nothing of lasting impact. (I'll predict the same after Castro's death too.)

Dictatorial regimes - the Soviet Union, Ceausescu - collapsed quickly and within a few years, few if any spoke about them. In the case of North Korea, I would expect a rather quick reunification with the south done in typical Korean style.

[Riverwind]

Dictatorial regimes - the Soviet Union, Ceausescu - collapsed quickly and within a few years, few if any spoke about them. In the case of North Korea, I would expect a rather quick reunification with the south done in typical Korean style.

Reunfication was a huge drain on Gemany even though East Germany was further ahead than North Korea today. The South Koreans do not want the border to dissappear overnight because they know they would have a huge refugee problem that they cannot deal with. For that reason, the South Koreans want to keep this lunatic in power as long as possible and encourage gradual economic reforms followed by eventual renification. China has similar concerns about refugees but would have no problem shooting any who tried to crossed the border ilegally.

[geoffrey]

Is he the only one holding the button though? Assassinate the leader and stir up a hornet's nest.

On the contrary, I think that this regime will be forgotten within a few months of its demise leaving little or nothing of lasting impact. (I'll predict the same after Castro's death too.)

Dictatorial regimes - the Soviet Union, Ceausescu - collapsed quickly and within a few years, few if any spoke about them. In the case of North Korea, I would expect a rather quick reunification with the south done in typical Korean style.

I tend to agree, once the regime is disposed of, reunification is nearly a certain outcome. From all I've read, the popular support in the North is for unification and democracy, though then again, how accurate can such opinion be?

I really don't if anyone in the North would wish to go back to starving under a loony movie watching dictator in comparison to the economic success of the South.

If we need to push them a little to get there, that's ok too.

An assasination would have worked with Hitler in my opinion as well, along the same reasons... at least later on in his regime. Who could have carried on with his success? None of his lieutenants. I feel the same with Kim Jong-il. A little different then Hussien who had brothers, as well with Castro to an extent.

There is no succession plan in North Korea. We should knock him off.

[jdobbin]

Dictatorial regimes - the Soviet Union, Ceausescu - collapsed quickly and within a few years, few if any spoke about them. In the case of North Korea, I would expect a rather quick reunification with the south done in typical Korean style.

Those two regimes collapsed but I think you'll agree that neither was rattling the sabre quite like North Korea is now. While some states might go out with a whimper, others may choose to go out with a bang.

Reunification seems so far off at the moment. It's possible it will one day happen. Just hope that South Korea has taken note of Germany's continuing pain to integrate East Germany into the fold. If Germany hadn't been one of the strongest economies on the planet, I wonder what might have happened.

South Korea is not nearly as strong as West Germany was and North Korea is not nearly as developed as East Germany. It would not be an easy nor short term reunification. It would probably be decades of expensive work.

[theloniusfleabag]

Invasion will be the only thing to 'de-nuke' NK.

from...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/...61009-voa03.htm

A spokesman for President Roh Moo-hyun says Seoul will not tolerate a nuclear-armed North.

from a related article...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/...009-rferl01.htm

South Korea warns it will deal "sternly" with the issue and will not tolerate a nuclear-armed North. "Even as we and the international community repeatedly warned them not to conduct a test, North Korea conducted a nuclear test on October 9," a presidential spokesman said. "Our government will take stern measures according to our principle not to accept the North's possession of nuclear weapons."

Taiwan expressed fear and said the test could trigger an arms race and undermine regional security.

Japan has said the test is "unpardonable" and poses a "grave threat" to the region. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, on a visit to South Korea, said Japan will discuss the test with China and the United States.

Taiwan better keep it's nose out of it until the timing is right. They may be able to wheedle 'independence' out of the deal, but they shouldn' openly side against an ally of China at this point in time.

South Korea's words are either harsh or empty, time will tell. The only way to 'not tolerate a Nuclear NK' is to disarm them, which will require force. The whole region is now a pressure cooker, and the biggest problem is how China will respond. If they back NK's right to nuclear arms, everybody might as well sit back down and grumble. However, I just read this...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/...61009-voa02.htm

China is leading a chorus of condemnation of North Korea's purported nuclear test.

The Chinese government calls Monday's reported test "brazen" and says it resolutely opposes North Korea's actions. Beijing is calling on Pyongyang to return to stalled six-party nuclear disarmament talks.

Mind you, 'a call to return to the six-party talks' (which NK has refused to do for about a year now) is really a case of 'shutting the barn door after the horses have bolted'.

[August1991]

It appears the Chinese were informed in advance:

China was warned about a possible nuclear test by North Korea 20 minutes ahead of time and then informed others in the region and the United States, Fox News reported Oct. 9., citing an unnamed U.S. Pentagon official. The source said the Pentagon and the U.S. military have said they believe the reports that North Korea conducted a nuclear test.

Link

To announce it in advance, the North Koreans took the risk that the explosion would not work. The North Koreans just gained alot of face and the Chinese just lost alot face.

I suspect that this explosion was a signal directed first at the Chinese, second at the US, third at South Korea and fourth at Japan.

What will the Chinese do? The Chinese invaded Vietnam and in the Korean War, the Chinese "invaded" the Korean peninsula. Since then, the North Koreans have gone simply too weird but they trust and rely on the Russians about as much as they trust rely on the Chinese.

Mind you, 'a call to return to the six-party talks' (which NK has refused to do for about a year now) is really a case of 'shutting the barn door after the horses have bolted'.

I agree. I think that statement simply indicates that the Chinese are in a quandary. They still haven't figured out what to do.

This is surprising. It's not as if this scenario was unpredictable. It's hardly the first dictatorial regime that was off-guard when faced with an opposite's predictable move. (Think Stalin.) Dictators, like psychopaths in general, are uncomfortable when they are not in control of the situation. The Chinese leaders are clearly not in control now.

Something else. This explosion makes it increasingly likely that someone at some point in the future is going to explode a nuclear bomb in a western country. If the North Koreans can do it in a salt mine, what would stop them from setting up a bomb in an abandoned warehouse beside the East River?

[America1]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15190745/

Looks like they finally did it.

How do you think the U.S. will respond?

Being a Canadian should your question have been "How should WE (Canada) respond?"

This is not a US issue alone. If Canadians (and every other nation for that matter) want to be equals to the US on the global scene, then they need to share the responsibilities and burdens that come with it.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear August1991,

If the North Koreans can do it in a salt mine, what would stop them from setting up a bomb in an abandoned warehouse beside the East River?

I don't believe it would serve their purpose. I don't see Kim Jong-Il as 'out to destroy the Great Satan', nor desiring war with them. Kim wants respect through fear, and while he has it in his own country, he seems to want it globally (well, at least regionally). He is claiming to be under threat, and is purely taking defensive measures. He is either a very bad liar, or he had a nut come loose (or should I say, another nut). A delusional paranoiac is never an asset to society (unless you are a home security salesman) and one in charge of a nuclear armed country is trouble.

[Figleaf]

Apparently there has been no confirmation. The USGS has said no seismic activity in the area.

Go figure.

I saw that. Japanese scientists also have monitoring devices. Maybe they picked up the test.

Might just be a regional muscle flex. If it turns out they have nuclear weapons, it's time to assasinate that wacko holding the button. He's not mentally stable, what saved us from the Russians was MAD, I don't think this guy can be relied upon to rationalise that thought.

This may be an apocryphal story, but anyway, I heard that several years ago Russia invite Kim on a grand tour of the eastern SSRs. Kim refuses to fly, so a special luxury train was commissioned for his private use. He was pampered, catered to in every way (including a variety of petty perversions, apparently), and generally shown a really good time. He loved it. This is good news. Kim loves life. He probably loves being boss of his country. This means that whatever his peculiarities, he will wish to avoid his own destruction.

Not totally apocryphal I guess:

http://nk.chosun.com/english/news/news.htm...amp;res_id=4814

[Great Pharoah]

Even if Jong Il loves life, he is still oppressing his own people and encouraging an arms race in Asia that could result in countries like Iran and Syria attempting to obtain the technology, or worse, Al Qaeda.

[jdobbin]

Being a Canadian should your question have been "How should WE (Canada) respond?"

This is not a US issue alone. If Canadians (and every other nation for that matter) want to be equals to the US on the global scene, then they need to share the responsibilities and burdens that come with it.

Canada has been shut out of the negotiating process on North Korea. It involves only North Korea, Japan, China and the United States as far as talks go.

Canada's protest carries as little weight as Greenpeace's protest.

[America1]

Being a Canadian should your question have been "How should WE (Canada) respond?"

This is not a US issue alone. If Canadians (and every other nation for that matter) want to be equals to the US on the global scene, then they need to share the responsibilities and burdens that come with it.

Canada has been shut out of the negotiating process on North Korea. It involves only North Korea, Japan, China and the United States as far as talks go.

Canada's protest carries as little weight as Greenpeace's protest.

Shut out by who?

Surely the S. Koreans and Russians are apart of the talks.

[August1991]

It involves only North Korea, Japan, China and the United States as far as talks go.

The Six Party talks also involve Russia and South Korea.

[jdobbin]

It involves only North Korea, Japan, China and the United States as far as talks go.

The Six Party talks also involve Russia and South Korea.

Sorry, I always forgot about South Korea. And Russia I'm never sure if they are in or out. Sometimes they have been involved in the talks and other times no.

[jdobbin]

Shut out by who?

Surely the S. Koreans and Russians are apart of the talks.

I have a correction about Russia and South Korea in another post. I always forget about them because they have not been at the table at all times.

And Canada is not so much shut out as not directly involved in this regional and superpower negotiation.

[Great Pharoah]

Why should Canada become directly involved when we have no reason to be. We don't have a military that is a global issue(U.S.), we aren't directly linked with N Korea via family (South Korea). We don't have a frightening past history with them (Japan and China) and we don't share a border with them (Russia). Although I agree this is a global issue now, the more powers that get involved, the more voices we hear, and the less clear communication becomes.

[Argus]

Even if Jong Il loves life, he is still oppressing his own people and encouraging an arms race in Asia that could result in countries like Iran and Syria attempting to obtain the technology, or worse, Al Qaeda.

His regime also has a habit of nuttiness, of the kind of violent provocations no one else has ever tried. Sending guerrilas into South Korea to randomly shoot people, for one thing. Setting off a bomb at a funeral attended by the South Korean cabinet for another.