Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Well as I said a month ago when JD was amking all the issues of the CPC never moving higher in the polls, I gues I was right, the polls would soon be going well into majority area. He laughed at my 46-48 % prediction, but with Dion on his run to submarine the liberals, that is not such a far fetched number now is it. We are only 5% from being dead center of it, and things look like upwards is where things will go.

But I must admit that I said before that I do not put much faith in what polls show. I did not before and I really do not now. I find them to be a floating indicator of about 40% of what the people are thinking. The other 60% will always be the dark horse in all things of politics. Give the people some haert wrenching issue and we will have high voter turn out, but have a lackluster campaigne and we will have very low turn outs. I think the high turn outs will benefit the CPC and the low turn out the Liberals.

I said at the time the polls, even Ipsos polls, were not showing the Conservatives over the 40%.

The Ipsos pollster says a problem for the Tories is that they are increasing their vote in ridings they have already won.

I stated that the budget was likely to show a boost. I also said that if the Liberals defeated the budget, they would have lost the election and could have very well given the Tories a majority.

The best strategy for the Liberals was to keep the legislative session going a while longer because issues would come up that carried with them more controversy than say...cutting taxes. The announcement on Friday that Mulroney is being investigated could appear in the polls as an issue, especially since the Tories were scoffing at the idea only the day before.

Edited November 11, 2007 by jdobbin

[capricorn]

The announcement on Friday that Mulroney is being investigated could appear in the polls as an issue, especially since the Tories were scoffing at the idea only the day before.

Of course, that would depend on whether or not Canadians were paying attention. It would also depend on how Mulroney is perceived by the majority of Canadians. A lot of my friends would like nothing more than Mulroney receiving a swift kick in the behind and then some.

[jdobbin]

Of course, that would depend on whether or not Canadians were paying attention. It would also depend on how Mulroney is perceived by the majority of Canadians. A lot of my friends would like nothing more than Mulroney receiving a swift kick in the behind and then some.

If an inquiry goes deep, it will bring out a lot of the present day Conservatives who used to be involved with the PCs.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

Indeed, a source told The Globe and Mail yesterday - before the decision came down - that prime-ministerial advisers were anxious about how to handle the situation. They knew that announcing an inquiry or going after Mr. Mulroney for the $2.1-million settlement he received after suing the federal government would offend a large chunk of the Tory Party. The other option was to stay the course in the House of Commons, a notion that the prime minister ultimately decided was unpalatable.

"They were worried about it," the source said.

Of course, the current government is younger and less tired than Mr. Martin's, and the vast majority of its members weren't around during the Mulroney years.

But a good number of staffers, cabinet ministers and senators were there, and they will find themselves conflicted when asked about Mr. Mulroney's situation. Opposition members will no doubt point their fingers at each and every one of them during the House of Commons Question Period over the next few months. The fact that Mr. Harper has ordered them not to speak with the former prime minister may keep them silent, but it may also rankle many who call Mr. Mulroney their friend.

Edited November 11, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Polling numbers from Decima analyzed for Toronto.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/275452

The most recent polling data shows that while Conservatives have a slight edge over Liberals in the rest of Canada – 33 per cent compared to 29 per cent – the picture is very different in the GTA as a whole. There, the Liberals have 42 per cent support, while the Conservatives are at only 30 per cent.

Conservatives' support is especially weak in the 416 area code within the GTA where Decima shows them with just 24 per cent compared to 44 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the NDP. The Green party is tracking there at an impressive 11 per cent.

And even in the 905 area code, the suburbs, where Conservatives hope to make inroads around Toronto, they are at just 35 per cent support compared to 39 per cent for the Liberals and 15 per cent for the NDP. The Greens are at 11 per cent in the 905 zone, too.

The numbers are based on a survey of 2,044 adults from across Canada — 353 of them within the GTA, from Oct. 19-29. The results are deemed accurate within 5.2 percentage points for the GTA and 2.4 percentage points for the rest of Canada, 19 times out of 20.

Decima's newest poll is due soon according to CTV this morning so we'll see if there is any change from their last poll.

[jdobbin]

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...NuJwESUT1wximLw

ost Canadians don't agree with the Tory government's decision to stop automatically seeking clemency for any citizen facing the death penalty abroad, a new poll indicates.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey found 50 per cent of respondents opposed the new policy, with 43 per cent in favour and the rest undecided.

Those totals concealed a sharp division along party lines, with Conservatives backing the government by a healthy margin and supporters of all other parties strongly opposed.

There were also splits along other lines, with younger, female and urban voters more likely to be against the government on the issue. Those are all voting segments that have also been disproportionately opposed to the Harper government's agenda on other issues.

The results could present Prime Minister Stephen Harper with a political conundrum as he seeks to piece together a Tory majority government in the next election.

"To my eyes it looks like the kind of thing that has some potential to bolster their base (but) has limited potential to grow it," said Bruce Anderson, president of Harris-Decima.

On the other hand, he said, Conservative strategists could see the 43 per cent figure as an encouraging one, since it's well ahead of the party's overall popularity rating in recent polls.

Seems this policy will appeal in areas they've won and won't appeal in areas they need to win.

[Canuck E Stan]

Harper's popularity soars

The startling SES-Sun Media survey shows Harper has steamrolled ahead as the choice for “best PM” of 37% of Canadians, while Dion plunged to third place as the pick of just 13% of Canadians. Layton garnered 17% support across the country.

Harper’s popularity is growing in vote-rich Quebec, which is expected to be a key battleground in the next federal election. In that province, 41% said they think he would make the best prime minister, up from 24% three months ago.

Dion has slid to just 11% from 15% 90 days earlier in Quebec.

The national telephone survey was completed between Nov. 6-8. Results are considered accurate plus or minus 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

With time, it only gets better.

[jdobbin]

Harper's popularity soars

With time, it only gets better.

It's not surprising that Dion's personal support sank during the mini-budget announcement.

When it comes to personal support for the leader though, I am duly cautious. I can remember when Martin's personal popularity was 80%. It didn't help his party. And I can remember how Bourassa's low popularity didn't hurt his party.

[capricorn]

Harper's popularity soars

With time, it only gets better.

You beat me to it. I noticed that jd "forgot" to post this poll which is very favourable to the Prime Minister. I wondered why?

There's another poll showing that Justin Trudeau is the top choice to replace Stephane Dion as leader among Liberals. As I recall, Iggy placed second, Rae third and Kennedy fourth. This poll was covered on tonight's Mike Duffy Live. So far, there's no mention of it on any news coverage on the net. The results of this poll would make a great case study for a political science class. Wishing for a potential party leader who has never been elected, has no parliamentary experience and who sports a famous political family name presents a unique perspective of where the Liberals are today. It does merit studying.

[Michael Bluth]

You beat me to it. I noticed that jd "forgot" to post this poll which is very favourable to the Prime Minister. I wondered why?

No real reason to wonder.

It's interesting how quick he is to post polls that are not favourable to the Conservatives.

Harper at 41% in Quebec is also great news for the Conservatives.

Upwards of 40 seats in Quebec is a real possibility. More empirical support for the belief the Conservatives are in majority territory.

[jdobbin]

You beat me to it. I noticed that jd "forgot" to post this poll which is very favourable to the Prime Minister. I wondered why?

There's another poll showing that Justin Trudeau is the top choice to replace Stephane Dion as leader among Liberals. As I recall, Iggy placed second, Rae third and Kennedy fourth. This poll was covered on tonight's Mike Duffy Live. So far, there's no mention of it on any news coverage on the net. The results of this poll would make a great case study for a political science class. Wishing for a potential party leader who has never been elected, has no parliamentary experience and who sports a famous political family name presents a unique perspective of where the Liberals are today. It does merit studying.

I post all the polls. Both were published in the last two or so hours. Decima's poll was mentioned on CTV's website. The SES poll was not. Check the google timestamp on when SES released their poll. Each day, I check for Decima, Strategic, Ipsos, Angus Reid, Environics and SES. They are all here in this thread. The SES poll was locked on Canoe because it was subscription only in the first hour.

I've heard this story before how I don't post polls that are unfavourable. I post all the polls every time with the link. Take a look in this thread and they are all there. You really think I am going to skip a poll just because I don't like it?

As far as the Mike Duffy poll goes, I haven't seen that one. As these things go, they often appear a few hours after being mentioned

Edited November 13, 2007 by jdobbin

[capricorn]

The SES poll was locked on Canoe because it was subscription only in the first hour.

I found that poll through National Newswatch about a half hour before you posted the Decima poll at 6:44. I resisted posting it until you got a crack at it. I'm a tad lazy and decided to wait for you to post it.

You really think I am going to skip a poll just because I don't like it?

Yes.

As far as the Mike Duffy poll goes, I haven't seen that one. As these things go, they often appear a few hours after being mentioned

Yeah, Duff appears to have an inside track on some of these polls.

[jdobbin]

I found that poll through National Newswatch about a half hour before you posted the Decima poll at 6:44. I resisted posting it until you got a crack at it. I'm a tad lazy and decided to wait for you to post it.

Yes.

Yeah, Duff appears to have an inside track on some of these polls.

I posted the Decima poll at 5:44 my time. Global National had been on less the 15 minutes and I wasn't watching it or looking at their website. The Canoe site was locked for subscription people at that time.

I haven't questioned you on the CTV poll. There isn't a poll that I have not posted in this thread. Not one. If you feel better of accusing me of not posting one I don't like, by all means that is your right. However, it probably tells me you are not really interested in finding out if it is true whether I have posted all the polls in the past.

Edited November 13, 2007 by jdobbin

[shavluk]

This just in ,,,Green's predicted to win multiple seats

- shavluk poll

[Canuck E Stan]

This just in ,,,Green's predicted to win multiple seats

- shavluk poll

....none in Canada, though.

[shavluk]

We shall see eh,Ces ?,wont we,hahha I will remind you.

[capricorn]

I posted the Decima poll at 5:44 my time. Global National had been on less the 15 minutes and I wasn't watching it or looking at their website. The Canoe site was locked for subscription people at that time.

I haven't questioned you on the CTV poll. There isn't a poll that I have not posted in this thread. Not one. If you feel better of accusing me of not posting one I don't like, by all means that is your right. However, it probably tells me you are not really interested in finding out if it is true whether I have posted all the polls in the past.

You're quite right about the difference in time zones. I notice this even with the times shown for posts on these forums.

It's late, I won't read back on this lengthy thread to make a minor point. Should I spot a poll before you do I'll go ahead and post it rather than wait for you to do so. But I can't guarantee anything if it is in favour of the Liberals.

[Michael Bluth]

It's late, I won't read back on this lengthy thread to make a minor point. Should I spot a poll before you do I'll go ahead and post it rather than wait for you to do so. But I can't guarantee anything if it is in favour of the Liberals.

Seems like you touched a nerve with that one cap.

Meh, it was a fair point and needed to be made.

Unless Dion can somehow capitalize on this Mulroney-Schreiber affair we'll continue to see Conservatives at 40 and up and Liberals under 30%.

A 12, 13, or 14 point spread between the Government and the Official Opposition means a majority no matter how the facts are misrepresented.

[jdobbin]

CTV releases Strategic Counsel poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

A Strategic Counsel poll conducted between Thursday, Nov. 8 and Sunday, Nov. 11 for CTV and The Globe and Mail has found the Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck nationally -- each with 32 per cent support.

A Strategic Counsel poll in October had the Tories leading the Liberals 34 to 29.

Much of the damage to the Conservatives occurred in the crucial election battleground of Ontario, where their support dipped four per cent since October, to 29 per cent. Quebec also saw a three-point dip in Tory numbers to 23 per cent.

[jdobbin]

You're quite right about the difference in time zones. I notice this even with the times shown for posts on these forums.

It's late, I won't read back on this lengthy thread to make a minor point. Should I spot a poll before you do I'll go ahead and post it rather than wait for you to do so. But I can't guarantee anything if it is in favour of the Liberals.

The polls tonight are coming fast and furious. CTV just released theirs a few minutes ago.

I don't know how the timestamps work in the forums. Your reply to my post says I posted at 10:08 when my timestamp says 9:08.

However, there isn't a poll I haven't posted here and I defy anyone to say differently. Anyone who says different is either a liar or a partisan hack or both.

[Michael Bluth]

CTV releases Strategic Counsel poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Interesting how a poll favourable to the Liberals is posted within 19 minutes. No wait, it's not interesting. It's more evidence of systemic bias in our resident poll misrepresenter.

However, of the last 30 national polls released three have shown the Liberals and Conservatives tied while 27 have showed the Conservatives leading.

Anybody want to guess which polling firm happened to do all three of those polls?

That's right the Strategic Counsel. This is a gift for the Conservatives if Dion is foolish enough to believe these numbers and the Liberals force a winter election.

[jdobbin]

On the issue of Senate reform:

While the NDP's numbers have dipped, it doesn't appear the party's position on senate reform has hurt their support or that of the Conservatives, who backed the idea.

In fact, the data suggests one in two Canadians are open to having a debate on the merits of keeping the Senate. However, the poll also shows voters are hesitant to abolish the Senate altogether. Only 46 per cent of people said they thought it was a good idea.

Last week, Harper backed NDP Leader Jack Layton's call to hold a nation-wide referendum on the abolition of the unelected Senate.

Support for the Senate's abolishment varied from province to province:

* Quebec showed strongest support at 63 per cent

* Ontarians were least supportive at 36 per cent

* Most BC residents, 44 per cent, support the idea

* Prairie residents are evenly divided -- 39 per cent support the idea while 42 per cent oppose it

Bloc Quebecois voters are the most likely to support the move at 75 per cent while 56 per cent of Conservative voters and 50 per cent of NDP voters support the idea.

The majority of Liberal voters, 55 per cent, are opposed to it.

It would seem that the people of Quebec and the government of Quebec are of two minds on abolishing the Senate.

I think the Liberals can safely reject this bill even if the Tories want to make it a confidence vote. The question is: Do they want the government to fall with the Mulroney issue outstanding?

In regards to the poll that Mike Duffy teased about but withheld until CTV News could report it tonight:

Trudeau received 40 per cent of national support, followed by Michael Ignatieff (25 per cent) and Bob Rae (23 per cent). Former leadership contender Gerard Kennedy trailed far behind at 11 per cent.

The poll concludes that among Liberal voters, however, support for Trudeau waned to 35 per cent, though he was still the most popular choice.

"Liberal voters have a lot more knowledge about the other candidates," said Woolstencroft. "They recognize Trudeau is a risky choice because of his age and inexperience. It's all a handicap going into an election."

Woolstencroft recognized that Trudeau does have his family legacy working for him.

"There's absolutely no question about it, his name is like gold," he said.

I think a huge factor is both his name and that he is an unknown quantity. I don't know if that translate into a potential leader even before he wins a seat.

[Visionseeker]

Interesting how a poll favourable to the Liberals is posted within 19 minutes. No wait, it's not interesting. It's more evidence of systemic bias in our resident poll misrepresenter.

However, of the last 30 national polls released three have shown the Liberals and Conservatives tied while 27 have showed the Conservatives leading.

Anybody want to guess which polling firm happened to do all three of those polls?

That's right the Strategic Counsel. This is a gift for the Conservatives if Dion is foolish enough to believe these numbers and the Liberals force a winter election.

Enough with the silly accusations about polls already. You and Capricorn have tried to make the point (and failed IMO). Besides, someone like you accusing another of bias is a meaningless pot-kettle thing. Moving on...

How many of the polls showing the Conservatives leading by significant margins are from Ipsos? It is fair to say that the Conservatives have at times shown leads (as confirmed by more than one firm), but the trend of returning to statistical ties seems equally unassailable.

[jdobbin]

Enough with the silly accusations about polls already. You and Capricorn have tried to make the point (and failed IMO). Besides, someone like you accusing another of bias is a meaningless pot-kettle thing. Moving on...

How many of the polls showing the Conservatives leading by significant margins are from Ipsos? It is fair to say that the Conservatives have at times shown leads (as confirmed by more than one firm), but the trend of returning to statistical ties seems equally unassailable.

If they could prove the point, they would. I set up the political polls thread so that it would be easy to find all the polls in one place. I have posted on every poll I have come across. I posted the last Ipsos poll a full day ahead of the print newspapers so if it is an issue of speed, that poll was listed here within minutes of it being posted on the Canwest site.

I have no problems when other people posts polls. I often don't see the Quebec polls right away so I appreciate when someone posts them. I find it bewildering when people say I post only favourable polls. I think I have posted every Ipsos poll done and everyone one of them had the Tories in the lead in the last several weeks.

I don't criticize the polling companies like some do. They all have their way of doing things and the only type of polling I am dubious on is online polling. I have said that even when results are favourable to an opinion I have already.

The Tories were edging upwards over the fall but were mostly still in that 36% range throughout October. The first couple of weeks of November looked good for them but the Mulroney news has been like a cold shower. It is back to the statistical tie that you mention that we were seeing for many weeks of the summer.

Edited November 13, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

Enough with the silly accusations about polls already. You and Capricorn have tried to make the point (and failed IMO). Besides, someone like you accusing another of bias is a meaningless pot-kettle thing. Moving on...

How many of the polls showing the Conservatives leading by significant margins are from Ipsos? It is fair to say that the Conservatives have at times shown leads (as confirmed by more than one firm), but the trend of returning to statistical ties seems equally unassailable.

Move on because I asked valid questions of someone who shares your views? Of course Cap and I have failed in your eyes, because we don't share your views. Why didn't you say something about post #1494. No pot-kettle thing with the partisan hack line?

If you are trying to bring fairness and respect to the board then take exception with both sides. Not just those who disagree with your political views.

You aren't a moderator sir. I'll kindly ask you to not try and control my behaviour on the boards.

If you really want to add something to the board why not look up the actual number of polls from Ipsos instead of asking a question?

If they could prove the point, they would.

The point has been proven. I see you still refuse to directly respond to my points. Please engage in debate rather than these oblique personal attacks that are allowed by the moderators for debatably following the rules of the message board.

Edited November 13, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[capricorn]

The first couple of weeks of November looked good for them but the Mulroney news has been like a cold shower.

Sorry, but you have no proof of this. So I'll put it down to your interpretation of the numbers and nothing more.