Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Senate reform receives high poll numbers.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061220/...nal/senate_poll

I just wonder if the Tories have enough time or support from the provinces to pull it off before an election.

I personally think they should do way with the Senate. It might be elected and have term limits but it will be still be structurally unfair and that is likely to just muck up Parliament.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Senate reform receives high poll numbers.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/061220/...nal/senate_poll

I just wonder if the Tories have enough time or support from the provinces to pull it off before an election.

I personally think they should do way with the Senate. It might be elected and have term limits but it will be still be structurally unfair and that is likely to just muck up Parliament.

But this could form the basis for a major campaign platform for the Conservatives. Seems like people are buying the first two E's of triple E (Elected and Effective) use that to leverage Equal and turn the election into a quasi-referendum on Senate reform.

They can't enact meaningful change to the Senate before the next election, but they can put forward a meaningful plan and let the people decide.

[jdobbin]

Decima Poll on Dion.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...21?hub=Politics

Despite the considerable indecision about Dion's perceived attributes or failings, 31 per cent said they'd like to see the new Liberal leader win the next election. That included 31 per cent of those who voted NDP in last winter's election, 30 per cent of Bloc voters and 38 per cent of Green voters.

Negative perceptions of Dion were somewhat more likely among respondents in his home province of Quebec than in Ontario, the other key electoral battleground.

As the article says, it looks like Dion is being accepted as a "blank slate" thus far.

[mikedavid00]

As the article says, it looks like Dion is being accepted as a "blank slate" thus far.

Yeah I saw that poll a couple days back. My favorite part is:

"Only 21 per cent said Dion doesn't speak English well enough to be prime minister."

Only 21%

Shouldn't it be 0% if we are going to elect our priminister in an English speaking country?

[Jean_Poutine]

Looks like the numbers are evening out:

Liberals (36%, -2 Points) And Conservatives (34%, +2 Points)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3308

[jdobbin]

Looks like the numbers are evening out:

Liberals (36%, -2 Points) And Conservatives (34%, +2 Points)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3308

I posted those results in this thread earlier.

I also posted that the earlier bump would probably even out. I expect we'll see some more definitive results in January about what the trend is.

[mcqueen625]

because they didn't get a seat in quebec.

If no seat in alberta = not a national party, then no seat in quebec = not a national party.

Kind of a silly argument to make, isn't it? Given how the population is concentrated in a few provinces, it is possible to win enough seats to beccome government and be totally shut out of some provinces.

Yes, but not a national government. The Liberals had their base of power mainly in Ontario, and that hardly constitutes a government that has wide ranging support across the country. That is what is wrong with our style of government, we do not have equal representation, and without it we could and have had political parties governing who have virtually no support in certain parts of the country. The more democratic way of governing would eb for Canada to adopt a U.S. style of government whereby each province has exactly the same numbers of MP's and Senators, with both Houses elected to specific terms in office. The Liberal especially don't want that because it would not serve their purpose of catering to one or two provinces while the rest of Canada is virtually ignored. My guess is that virtually everyone can guess which two provinces those are.

[mcqueen625]

Looks like the numbers are evening out:

Liberals (36%, -2 Points) And Conservatives (34%, +2 Points)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3308

I posted those results in this thread earlier.

I also posted that the earlier bump would probably even out. I expect we'll see some more definitive results in January about what the trend is.

Trends and polls means absolutely nothing, because it depends on the questions asked, and of whom the questions are asked of. The only poll that really means anything is the one held on election day. The polls held in between always seem to favour the side the group is on that is conducting the survey, and since most of the media seems to be pro-Liberal, any poll they conduct or is conducted for them or reported by them in their media releases, seems to favour their choice or it tends to go unreported.

[jdobbin]

Trends and polls means absolutely nothing, because it depends on the questions asked, and of whom the questions are asked of. The only poll that really means anything is the one held on election day. The polls held in between always seem to favour the side the group is on that is conducting the survey, and since most of the media seems to be pro-Liberal, any poll they conduct or is conducted for them or reported by them in their media releases, seems to favour their choice or it tends to go unreported.

You're certainly free to think they are useless for measuring support. I fully expect that all parties will be watching them regardless.

[jbg]

Trends and polls means absolutely nothing, because it depends on the questions asked, and of whom the questions are asked of. The only poll that really means anything is the one held on election day. The polls held in between always seem to favour the side the group is on that is conducting the survey, and since most of the media seems to be pro-Liberal, any poll they conduct or is conducted for them or reported by them in their media releases, seems to favour their choice or it tends to go unreported.

You're certainly free to think they are useless for measuring support. I fully expect that all parties will be watching them regardless.

I fully suspect parties rely on their own internal numbers rather than IPSO or other mass-market polls. Or maybe those organizations do the specialized polling required by the parties internally.

I would think, for example, that the parties would need to know how they're doing in specific ridings, which riding are likely to be "in play" and which, based on political leanings and/or the local standing of the MP are not worth bothering to contest.

Thus, while in general a 42% support rate may be considered the level that translates into a majority, the distribution of that vote matters greatly.

Again, I'm just guessing, since I know little about Canada.

[jdobbin]

I fully suspect parties rely on their own internal numbers rather than IPSO or other mass-market polls. Or maybe those organizations do the specialized polling required by the parties internally.

I would think, for example, that the parties would need to know how they're doing in specific ridings, which riding are likely to be "in play" and which, based on political leanings and/or the local standing of the MP are not worth bothering to contest.

Thus, while in general a 42% support rate may be considered the level that translates into a majority, the distribution of that vote matters greatly.

Again, I'm just guessing, since I know little about Canada.

When I ran for office, we couldn't afford internal polling every few months prior to the election. Nor could we afford to show what few internal numbers there were to prospective candidates as a means to encourage or discourage them since some of those prospective candidates could just as easily turn and run for another party.

One of the best means of recruiting candidates (aside from from the leader and the party extending a personal invitation) is to have prospective candidates come to the party after looking at national and provincial poll numbers showing they might have a chance of winning.

In addition, ordinary people aren't going to be privy to internal polls of the party which are important for membership sales and fundraising. If the party seems like it doing okay, it becomes easier in getting the money and people.

It is these good numbers that have allowed Dion to sell-out several large fundraising dinners in quick succession across Canada.

I an guessing that it is like that in the United States as well but I am just guessing because I only know that the United States is a big mass of people with lots of drive-through restaurants.

[jbg]

When I ran for office, we couldn't afford internal polling every few months prior to the election. Nor could we afford to what few internal numbers there were to prospective candidates as a means to encourage or discourage them since some of those prospective candidates could just as easily turn and run for another party.

I was thinking more in terms of allowing the LPOC, in the context of a minority government, to make the decision as to whether to seek to defeat a confidence measure or make a non-confidence motion, or allowing the CPC to decide when to table legislation sufficiently unpalatable as to force an election. Since the PM cannot, in a minority government, instruct the GG to drop the writ, the parties would need information better than the relatively crude overall popularity ratings in determining whether to force an election.

I an guessing that it is like that in the United States as well but I am just guessing because I only know that the United States is a big mass of people with lots of drive-through restaurants.

You know more about the US than I do about Canada. My exposure to Canada, such as it is, was gained in an ocean liner cruise, sailing Edmonton-Saskatoon-Winnipeg-Regina-Calgary-Red Deer-Edmonton.

[jdobbin]

I was thinking more in terms of allowing the LPOC, in the context of a minority government, to make the decision as to whether to seek to defeat a confidence measure or make a non-confidence motion, or allowing the CPC to decide when to table legislation sufficiently unpalatable as to force an election. Since the PM cannot, in a minority government, instruct the GG to drop the writ, the parties would need information better than the relatively crude overall popularity ratings in determining whether to force an election.

Sorry, you said the PM cannot instruct the PM to drop the writ? What do you mean?

There have been a few occasions when a government has been defeated completely unexpectedly and there was no internal polls done prior. I think the defeat of the NDP government in Manitoba in 1988 is an example.

The Martin government defeat fell in a predictable timetable and there were lots of polls prior but in a few past snap confidence votes there was very little data to show which way a vote would go.

[jbg]

Sorry, you said the PM cannot instruct the PM to drop the writ? What do you mean?

King/Byng affair.

There have been a few occasions when a government has been defeated completely unexpectedly and there was no internal polls done prior. I think the defeat of the NDP government in Manitoba in 1988 is an example.

The Martin government defeat fell in a predictable timetable and there were lots of polls prior but in a few past snap confidence votes there was very little data to show which way a vote would go.

Deciding to harpoon the government without data is a risky move at best. One would normally want to make sure it works. Clark, for example, erroneously allowed his government to fall, and then lost the subsequent election resoundingly.

[jdobbin]

King/Byng affair.

Deciding to harpoon the government without data is a risky move at best. One would normally want to make sure it works. Clark, for example, erroneously allowed his government to fall, and then lost the subsequent election resoundingly.

I don't know that we'd ever see the likes of a Governor-General not calling an election if a prime minister asking for one after that incident.

Clark was one of those unexpected downfalls of a government.

[jbg]

I don't know that we'd ever see the likes of a Governor-General not calling an election if a prime minister asking for one after that incident.

My understanding is that a minority PM has no right to demand an election. Am I wrong?

I believe that both Trudeaup and Diefenbaker engineered a budget defeat in order to seek, and in each case obtain, a majority.

[jdobbin]

My understanding is that a minority PM has no right to demand an election. Am I wrong?

I believe that both Trudeaup and Diefenbaker engineered a budget defeat in order to seek, and in each case obtain, a majority.

A minority PM can go to the polls if they want to. They don't have to wait to be defeated by the opposition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_gove...erre_E._Trudeau

"In the 1963 election, the Liberals, led by Lester B. Pearson, were also unable to win a majority. The next three years were productive ones, however, as a close working relationship between the Liberals and the New Democratic Party (NDP) resulted in he introduction of Canada's health care system, the Canadian flag, and the Canada Pension Plan. In 1965, Pearson asked the Governnor General to dissolve Parliament in an attempt to win a majority, but the make up of parliament after the 1965 election remained almost exactly the same, leading to three more years of a productive alliance between the Liberals and NDP."

[mikedavid00]

three more years of a productive alliance between the Liberals and NDP."

Gille Duecepts dad was a founder of the NDP.

[madmax]

Gille Duecepts dad was a founder of the NDP.

And Jack Laytons father was a Conservative MP.

I don't follow how Duceppes Father in Quebec, has any bearing in the historical commentary you were replying to, with regards to the 3 years of Liberal minority government in the 60's.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima poll on issues.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070107/...llster_analysis

[Canuck E Stan]

Latest Decima poll on issues.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070107/...llster_analysis

In our latest survey at Decima Research, completed on Jan. 2, about one in every two people reported satisfaction with the overall performance of the Harper government.

That's 13 points more than the final rating we saw for the Paul Martin government, just before they lost office. If everyone satisfied with the new government's performance voted Conservative, Mr. Harper would win a landslide.

Some analysts argue that foreign and environment policy won't be ballot issues because they rarely have been in the past. This view could turn out to be right.

At the end of the day, the details of these issues may matter less than how they reflect the underlying values of the parties, leaders and voters. These swing voters want peace, but not at any price, want lower taxes, but not at any cost, and want more effort on the environment, with no qualification or prevarication.

According to Anderson the reporter,female, urban/suburban and Quebec voters will be the "swing voters" who will decide the next election.

Presently a lot of these voters are probably leaning to the "New" Dion.

But as time goes on, I think the "New" Dion will evolve into the "Old" Liberal party and his popularity will wane even more.

Through in a renewal of Adscam, memories will be jogged of what the Liberal party really stands for.

The thought of putting this corrupt self centered government back into power will turn off many voters from voting for Dion.

[jdobbin]

According to Anderson the reporter,female, urban/suburban and Quebec voters will be the "swing voters" who will decide the next election.

Presently a lot of these voters are probably leaning to the "New" Dion.

But as time goes on, I think the "New" Dion will evolve into the "Old" Liberal party and his popularity will wane even more.

Through in a renewal of Adscam, memories will be jogged of what the Liberal party really stands for.

The thought of putting this corrupt self centered government back into power will turn off many voters from voting for Dion.

The Conservatives are going to have to present their own platform rather than simply run against the Liberal past. And if they present a green environment plan, they are likely to piss off people like yourself.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Conservatives are going to have to present their own platform rather than simply run against the Liberal past.

That's how we won last January.

[Canuck E Stan]

The Conservatives are going to have to present their own platform rather than simply run against the Liberal past. And if they present a green environment plan, they are likely to piss off people like yourself.

The only thing that's pisses off people like myself, is the so called environmental urgency that the other parties and the media claim is required. I haven't seen any "Urgent" programs presented any of these parties.

We all know how "urgent" the Liberals are in doing something environmental, only while in opposition is it "urgent" for them.

The opposition should have accepted the Clean Air Act, and made amendments to it to go after the "Urgency" of the situation they said was needed. Right now,we're sitting in limbo without anything.

Just wait until Layton's help to re-write the Conservative Clean Air plan comes about. It will be a big dissapointment to environmentalist, because it still won't go far enough.

Let's hear Dion's promote his green plan, without alienating a mass of voters somewhere.

The biggest % of people who want environmental change(Quebec) are also the biggest % of people that aren't willing sacrifice anything to help make the change.

I think that will also apply to most pseudo greenies,"hey, I recycle.....I'm doing my part,isn't that enough?"

[jdobbin]

The opposition should have accepted the Clean Air Act, and made amendments to it to go after the "Urgency" of the situation they said was needed. Right now,we're sitting in limbo without anything.

Just wait until Layton's help to re-write the Conservative Clean Air plan comes about. It will be a big dissapointment to environmentalist, because it still won't go far enough.

Let's hear Dion's promote his green plan, without alienating a mass of voters somewhere.

The biggest % of people who want environmental change(Quebec) are also the biggest % of people that aren't willing sacrifice anything to help make the change.

I think that will also apply to most pseudo greenies,"hey, I recycle.....I'm doing my part,isn't that enough?"

I don't know that the Tories can depend on Jack Layton to bail them out. As Layton's party continues to fall for cooperation with Harper, he might decide opposition is better.