The next era of American preeminence

[paxamericana]

As the world deglobalizes one common theme appears, the break down of global supply chain. Modern society is dependent on the end product of these supply chain. The working population is aging into mass retirement, the developed world is running out of workers. The symptoms of which is mass immigration from other countries with the implicit goal of keeping a second class of undocumented workers for cheap low skill labor. But this is just a short term solution as the prolific use of birth control is giving women an unprecedented body autonomy lowering reproductive rates below replacement levels. While the Stan countries and Africa who have not yet fully modernize, have above replacement fertility, we still see their birth rate dropping from previous higher levels past. The primary reason for the low fertility is of course the high cost (includes oppurtunity cost) for raising children. As with anything that is expensive, this means that we have fewer of them. 

  

America is a notable exception as it is one of the few modern countries whose fertility rate did not drop below replacement until recently as of 2010, this is before you consider our massive immigration system. This means that there is a window of oppurtuinity for America to survive unscathe from this deglobalizing world. We still have the workforce and consumption base (15-45 see second bulge larger than boomers) to maintain the known economic model where producer and consumer generate revenue and spend. This will no longer be possible for the countries that are aged beyond the necessary consumption to justify their industries. China is a hall mark example of what happens when the birth rate is below replacement for 50 years. They will never rise to be a super power. There might not even be a chinese person by the end of this century. China is facing national dissolution and deindustrialization. There is still time for America to right this ship, Israel is an example of a highly dense urban population with a high fertility rate. This is done as a religous duty to be fruitful and multiply. America has an oppurtunity to correct it's mistake, there will no longer be a never ending supply of immigrants. This decade is the last we will see the large number of economic migrant from South America.

      

Enter Trump, by raising tariff barriers and reshoring the supply chain, America stand to gain from the economic prosperity of this buildout and the income to raise a larger family. We will see a larger pool of capital flight from countries where economic models are no longer possible. Everyone will try to park the money in safer shores. Trump is bringing all the necessary ingredients for the next era of American preeminence. It will be a shining hill on the vast landscape of darkness. It needs one more ingredient to be a stunning success, the adoption of faith. People will not bear life into this world unless there is faith that better days are coming, that their children will inherit the fruits of their success. See projection to 2050. 

 

 

 

Edited August 6, 2025 by paxamericana