If the US Left Iraq

[KrustyKidd]

Besides your non-specific claims that the region would blow up if the US left Iraq, what do you think would happen in Iraq?

I replied to this response but did not get even an acknoledgement from the individual who asked me to penyificate so will reproduce it for the general public. I mentioned that it will never happen as the repercussions are so terrible both tactically and strategicly but the individual who asked me this seems to think that all the pieces of the puzzle (if you can call the diverse ethnic, religious, cultural, political and racial groups not to mention economic and class status a form type piece of a formula that has a proper way to 'fit' together) proivided the US left.

This is in no way designed to say the US has not opened a panoras box but, it has been opened nonetheless for reasons arguable in any other thread. Here are my thoughts. Of course, I could be wrong but I pray I will never have my prediction tested.

So, what would happen if the US left Iraq tommorow

First, there would be a massive airlift with supplies to the Iraq military. Spare parts and all for the new US equipment and a panic type repositioning of the Iraqi military to smaller towns where they could defend somthing with hope. This immediate action would have the repercussion of providing swift positioning of local militias, each neighborhood would quickly attempt to fill this vacumn for what they knew would be certain to follow. Hence, the degeneration of the situation would not be a slow steady one but rather almost overnight.

The US would have a brief exodus to the western desert where their new bases are for the forty thousand troops they had planned on leaving there from prior to the 2003 invasion. There, the area of course would be heavily fortified and secured. It's a given that no Iraq military units would be working in concert near them as they would more than likely be written off as sure to fail within weeks after the support was dropped.

In Baghdad, it would errupt in Sectarian violence as Shiite militias now were free to roam and Sunnis desparate to maintain power and stop the potential for being minimalized would embrace the former Regime insurgentcy members as well as allowing more open operation of Jihadists, opening the flood gates to foreign Jihadists and Al queda to help securre their situation

In other countries, I can see terrorism possibly, yet temporarily droppiong to virtual zero as Iraq and the Shiite battles about to be fought would draw them in like free beer.

In all the now pacified territories, Sunni and Shiite, there would be reprisals on supporters of the political process no matter who they were. There would virtually be blood in the streets as for example, a Sunni who participated in the government would be hung as a Shiite supoorter and vice versa. This action would have the main effect of eliminating any contact and ability to work with the other sect and have the main effect of eliminating further, any oportunity to work with other nations to act in any way to stop the ever escalating violence.

There would be a flurry of talk at the UN but at this point, no nation would dare put their troops in without support and the ability to control an entire country fighting against each other, especially with the Iranian influence permitted to have full access to Iraq.

Electricity would fail soon after leaving the entire city starving, if it did manage to get up sporadically, it would be cut off by any loose cannon with a gripe. The army would melt in days as they would return to their homes to support their families and tribes. Larger cities would all be like Baghdad as there would be no authority to enable resupply, water, power and any form of basic service. Disease would more than likely become the primary killer after the second week as transport ground to a stop between the violence and lack of petrol, no bodies could be carted any further than the local neighborhood. Garbage would accululate to horrendous proportions creating amost cities of rats in every neighborhood.

The UN would of course attempt to take action to relieve the city but, due to it's location, ground travel through areas of the country controlled by local militia would come under attack for the same supplies destined for the city. Airlift would be the only way in and, once there, would also be subject to the same problems throughout the city as the different factions would see the control of food as political and military power and this, control it wherever possible to the extent where by a convoy of food would be a target worth it's wieght in gold to the local militia commanders. If they have that food, they command power and can grow, thus, in a city of five milion people, very few will get relief.

As stated before, no nation would want to send their troops in there to even attempt to control the population much less restore anything. Electrical lines would be cut faster than they could be fixed and pretty much, people would be left wtih one choice, move out or die. As this mass exodus occured, it would provide an opportunity for relief to come in the form of air drops. These would be filmed and the scrambling miserables' rushing for the food would be testament to Bush's inneptitude in handling the entire situation by not stay8ing the logical course.

In smaller areas, where large scale fighting was not taking place, they would try to protect what they had by forming a Militia centered around the most authoritive figureheads - basically Clerics. With the lacking of meaningful trade from a centralized source or distribution, this would quickly degenerate into a tribal affair with the Clerics then being figureheads for Afgan type Warlords. Once this process starts, it is only a matter of time until they form alliances with other more powerful Warlords and such and then, the opportunity to actually have a central force take the country and return it to order would be gone.

Iran would pour in supplies to the Shiites by endless convoys and, after seeing this, the Saudis would, more than likely from pressure of the population and Al Queda rhetoric backed by Imanns stop their campaign against Al Queda to allow them to regroup with money, arms and some sort of 'unofficial' support of military equipment.

On the Syrian front, the US would have it's hands full trying to stop infiltrators but then the entire Left wing shift of the US public would go from pulling troops out to stoping the Shiite dominated blood bath and, more than likely allow the Jihhaists into Iraq with a wink and a nod. At this point, the reason for their being in the west would be gone and they would either stay there marking time or, be dispatched elsewhere in the region such as kuwait, or even Turkey.

In the Kurdish territories, there would be a rush to solidify and defend their gains from whatever forces tried to take them away. This, frightening Iran would also provide a pretext for invasion. It is likely that Turkey would go into hasty negotiations with the Iranians and possibly have an unofficial joint move against their attempts to finally realize their own true third world nation rather than the fourth they have lived with for so long but in any case, the US would not be part of those negotiations and, it would be virtually limited to a nuclear threat on Iran and defending Turkey under the Nato pact.

This in turn would get the hairs of the US up but even with the Left and Right unified in saying how they should be doing something there really wouldn't be much they could do to stop the war in the south and north as negotiations would hold absolutely no credibility. They would have no military power other than the based troops in the west, definitely no political equity as they don't stay the course and, hold no power if there was any group to deal with but, once the degeneration had begun, the entities that had provided cohesiveness also disintegrated leaving any would be controlling power having to now deal with hundreds of separate groups all looking after their own small piece of the country. An impossible situation to say the least. Even Saudi Arabia included who know that as soon as what happens in Iraq happens, they are wearing a bullseye on their robes.

So, right there, you have a Royal Family just waiting for the Sunnis to finish their war in the north and they will, with a broader based movement go south to claim their prize after eight hundred years in waiting.

Kuwait of course would become Iranian in the mix. Giving Iran either control over the bulk of the petro resources in the area or, at the very least, bargaiing power. To reverse the previous position of where the US had no bargaining power, they might be able to hold it for a while with a nuclear threat but eventually, it would fall to either the Iraqi Shiites, Sunnis or Iranians unless of course, the entire courntry was going to become a US protectoriate.

Six months down the road, Saudi Arabia would be faced with a horrible decision - either go full scale into Iraq in a proxy war with Iran to ensure the Sunnis have a chance at survival or, allow a force known as Al Queda to bring the entire Saudi population to point of revolution and beyond for being inactive to help their Sunni brothers in Iraq. They would more than likely pick aiding the Sunnis as Iran could not be allowed to win in Iraq. This of course would either be the beggining of the end of the turmoil as Iran backs off and/or negotiates leaving a good part of Iraq in the hands of Al Queda or a Taliban type entity or, goes full throttle into a conflict reminicent of the Iran Iraq war with the prize being not only Iraq but, Kuwait and possibly Saudi Arabia itself as well by proxy government.

There is another possibility at this point if the US public is finally seeing how this could affect everything - they may rally under a president other than Bush to actually do the unthinkable and invade Saudi Arabia to prop up the house of Saud. A very bad thing to do but, it may end up being the only option left at that point.

Further reaching consequences

As Al Queda gains actual political status in Saudi Arabia, it legitimizes their force in Iraq. Eagar to be associated with a power broker such as they, Clerics ally themselves with the Jihadists and slowely the two main beligerent philosophical sides begin to realise a cohesiveness that makes talks possible.

While violence still breaks out, it is somewhat controlled as each side now is beggining to form thier own core or center of gravity of sorts. The Shia are barely anything but an Iranian puppet, using arms supplied from Iran while the Sunnis, now at this point as the quiet comes, begin to wonder if their soul has been sold to the wrong people in the Jihadists who have now, been turned into Al Queda. At this point, over a quarter million people have died and relief is about to be finally allowed to come in from the outside world.

The UN as always is talking peace. The opportunity is getting better and, with the groups slowely adhering into two sides, they become being more organized, this allows for direct talks with semi authoritive figures from each. With Iranian participation on the Shiite faction of course.

Al Queda not being a body that would be able to command recognition by any world body only forms a shadow and theological base for the Clerics in charge of the Sunnis. They easily mould them into whatever shape they want as they basically control the force and power respect. Dissenters are swiftly silenced with street trials for being aposhates and the like. Then, with their position secure, they now turn their attention elsewhere.

As with all societies, the Arab world loves winners and, as a winner for making the US 'run like dogs,' Al Queda certainly does command respect. Slightly short of being legitimate, they have legendary status amongst the general disenfranchised populations of US supported regimes nearby. Egypt, Syria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are now experienceing severe control problems with the internal operations of their country due to sympathizere led demonstrations. The lull in Iraq allows Al Queda to disperse uneeded men back to their home countries with general missions to increase this pressure and disatisfacton.

In Saudi Arabia, they are viewed as heros for not only chasing the US out but for fighting the Shiites to a standstill. And as such, they find a Royal Family with a very changed attitude towards them than the hunted and imprisoned beings they were when the US was in the region actively prosecuting the War on Terror. Appeased and rewarded for their heroism, the Saudi Government in further concilliatary moves reverses the human rights revisions they had awarded women and others when they fought alongside the US during the Iraq mission. At this point, much unlike the betrayal they dished out after Afganistan, they begin to actually pay Al Queda bribe money which in turn aids in their goals as the Royals are eagar to still any talk of them being non supportive towards these Jihadists.

The money continues to flow for Al Queda and goes to all corners of the Muslim world where enhanced terrorist activities occur. Egypt's government is under crisis as it is experienceing riots from angry populations who cry out for security and other religious factions who pressure for more conservative values. Stuck with the two groups and, terrorist acts occuring at an alarming rate, Mubarak relinquishes more control to clerics. This slows the terrorism and the population quiets down, for now but will return in a couple of years at latest - in spades.

The oil continues to move from the area to Europe and China where they are all too happy to pay and, to take back the same money via arms and food shipments. Al Queda, now a silent partner in more than a few countries takes their payment and immediately turns it into the currency of somethng new - aid.

Here they do a simple game of destroying a weak governments infastructure and basic services then, after rallying the population unites them with what they need. Food and medicine. With the population united under one rule that is effective, the government is hard pressed to take control away at this point and becomes inert. Within five years, almost every country in the Middle East and as far as Indonesia is a virtual shell. Ready to be crushed at will by Al Queda when the time is right.

More to follow.

[sami]

Is there a coles note version?

It is a interesting read. I do not know if you give Iraqi nationalism enough credit. There is a difference between Iraqi ‘Arab’ Shiite and Iran ‘Persian’ Shiite. I think Iraqis are already wary of Iranian influence in their country. I also feel that the majority of Iraqis are sick of war and a civil war based on sect would not be very popular. I don’t know if a democratic government will be able to sustain itself in this country, but a more moderate dictatorship which brings peace, stability and security would probably be acceptable.

[KrustyKidd]

I think Iraqis are already wary of Iranian influence in their country. I also feel that the majority of Iraqis are sick of war and a civil war based on sect would not be very popular.

Pretty bang on with both Assessments Sami. That is the here and now. However, once survivial takes center stage, even within those sects there will be factions based on geography. The Iranians would be welcome and much needed supporters for many Shiites. Civil war, while not welcome, would be necessary to protect yourself and area from those who see it as an opportunity. In this case, there would be many only too happy to seize this opportunity.

[sami]

The Iranians would be welcome and much needed supporters for many Shiites. Civil war, while not welcome, would be necessary to protect yourself and area from those who see it as an opportunity. In this case, there would be many only too happy to seize this opportunity.

Agreed, it does really depend on where Iran wants to take their foreign policy. I hope they take into consideration that involving themselves in Iraq's internal politics will cause instability as the problems in Iraq would leak over into Iran. And as you stated many Arab Muslim countries would not take to kindly to Iran's incusion into Iraq. If there is US withdrawl if Iraq, the west must maintain strong financial and military support for any Iraqi government. Eliminate the need for Shiite Iraqis to look to Iranian conservatives for support.

[crazymf]

What a load...

Those theories are fine with the exception of the oil angle.

Why would the States merely cut and run unless they were going to drop a few neutron bombs? The tribes running around warring against each other are merely cannon fodder to the larger powers in the world and are an 'inconvenience' and an irrelevant obstacle to the stored energy which the rest of the world needs. If push came to shove, my theory is as believable as the one presented above.

Make a parking lot out of the place and give it to the Isrealies.

....as long as we're fantasizing, why not look at every scenario?

[KrustyKidd]

Agreed, it does really depend on where Iran wants to take their foreign policy. I hope they take into consideration that involving themselves in Iraq's internal politics will cause instability as the problems in Iraq would leak over into Iran.

Iran's foreign policy is based primarily on defense. Memories of their war with Iraq run deep in society there and they would be dertermined to never risk that again. Hence, the best way to prevent that is to control the country without being directly liable by covert political and open equipment support of Shiites there.

And as you stated many Arab Muslim countries would not take to kindly to Iran's incusion into Iraq.

So true, which is why Iran would never directly enter it with conventional forces, lowering their liability factor to support and advisory status. They of course, are doing this now but on a scale much lower than what would be if the US were not curtailing this activity and Shiite commuities had no other means of defending themselves.

If there is US withdrawl if Iraq, the west must maintain strong financial and military support for any Iraqi government. Eliminate the need for Shiite Iraqis to look to Iranian conservatives for support.

If possible yes. Will there be a government though? The situation with the US there is one where insurgents are doing whatever they can to weaken the government, With the US gone, many of the stops preventing the attacks will go along with them. Stops such as support for the Iraq forces, closure of Jihadist routes, protection of Sunni areas so they do not feel the need to work with Jihadists and such. If this is taken away, and Shiites have greater Iranian backing due to the necessity to protect themselves from Jihadists and insurgents, the Sunnis will have little recouse but to bring the support of the Jihadists along with aid from the Muslim world into their society.

It's basicly a snowball effect and would escalate rather quickly. So quickly in fact that the government would crumble overnight as the military disintigrated just as fast as soldiers lost confidence in their ability to control anything and returned home to 'hunker down' with their tribes and communities if you will. It is simple survival and, would have the further detrimental effect of creating many power bases across the country, making negotiations and aid impossible until they begin to form alliances. Given that people of that region all desire power, it can easily be surmised that many of these power bases will wish to be a larger, more effective entity and thus, wars within factions cannot be discounted.