Liberal leadership

[Spike22]

Why do they keep getting French Canadian's to lead the party?

Scott Brison will be great to see skipping around Ottawa - heard he was good at decorating for some reason. Might be nice to see some color in Ottawa.

Dion - the only Dion should be Celine. I can hear her caterwalling now, wanting to sing the national anthem at every event.

[Hicksey]

I have a question or two.

Why do you think that all the elites within the Liberal Party, those that even the pundits listed as the tops in the leadership race, are running from the position?

What do they know that we do not?

[fellowtraveller]

They all know that it is much too early for any serious candidates to declare their intentions publicly. About 6 months too early.

[Hicksey]

They all know that it is much too early for any serious candidates to declare their intentions publicly. About 6 months too early.

And to say you're not going to run now and then waffle and change your mind is supposed to be a better way of going about it?

[shoop]

I don't think there is anything really hidden, other than the size of the LPC debt.

McKenna was pretty honest. It is an all consuming job and basically a ten-year commitment at this point. (6 years in opposition than you would want at least one *majority* term, i.e. an additional four years, as PM for the effort.)

ft is partially right. Now is far too early for any serious contender to *commit to running*. But anytime is good to step out of the running if you really don't want to run.

I have a question or two.

Why do you think that all the elites within the Liberal Party, those that even the pundits listed as the tops in the leadership race, are running from the position?

What do they know that we do not?

[Hicksey]

The leadership of the Liberal party has been a highly contested position in times past, mostly because to many the position is basically first stop down the yellow brick road to becoming PM.

Am I reading too far into this? I just keep wondering why people are running from the position instead of gravitating to it and fighting over it.

It doesn't make sense to me.

I don't think there is anything really hidden, other than the size of the LPC debt.

McKenna was pretty honest. It is an all consuming job and basically a ten-year commitment at this point. (6 years in opposition than you would want at least one *majority* term, i.e. an additional four years, as PM for the effort.)

ft is partially right. Now is far too early for any serious contender to *commit to running*. But anytime is good to step out of the running if you really don't want to run.

I have a question or two.

Why do you think that all the elites within the Liberal Party, those that even the pundits listed as the tops in the leadership race, are running from the position?

What do they know that we do not?

[shoop]

Leadership races are very expensive. Candidates are personally on the hook for expenses they haven't raised from other sources. The big four dropouts (Manley, McKenna, Rock and Tobin) are all in their 50s. They wouldn't want to run, just to lose and have to postpone retirement by a couple years in order to pay their campaign debts.

What if they were to win the leadership race? A reasonable expectation of 5 to 6 years in opposition. Rebuilding this party is going to take a long, long time. Lots of effort for very little reward.

The leadership of the Liberal party has been a highly contested position in times past, mostly because to many the position is basically first stop down the yellow brick road to becoming PM.

Am I reading too far into this? I just keep wondering why people are running from the position instead of gravitating to it and fighting over it.

It doesn't make sense to me.

[Hicksey]

You're assuming Harper is going to be effective in his current minority. Unless he tows the line on his promise to Quebecers to fix the imbalance and involve them where their interests are involved, those 10 seats disappear. He's got most of rural Canada so the only place for him to make real gains are in the 416, 905, 604 and 514/819 which have been Liberal strong holds the likes of Ralph Klein's.

I think that barring a heroic effort by Harper in this parliament, that the chances of the Liberal leader are better/sooner than you suggest.

Leadership races are very expensive. Candidates are personally on the hook for expenses they haven't raised from other sources. The big four dropouts (Manley, McKenna, Rock and Tobin) are all in their 50s. They wouldn't want to run, just to lose and have to postpone retirement by a couple years in order to pay their campaign debts.

What if they were to win the leadership race? A reasonable expectation of 5 to 6 years in opposition. Rebuilding this party is going to take a long, long time. Lots of effort for very little reward.

The leadership of the Liberal party has been a highly contested position in times past, mostly because to many the position is basically first stop down the yellow brick road to becoming PM.

Am I reading too far into this? I just keep wondering why people are running from the position instead of gravitating to it and fighting over it.

It doesn't make sense to me.

[shoop]

Did you want to actually look at the reasons why high profile candidates are fleeing running for the LPC leadership?

I put forth three separate points to explain why high profile candidates won't run.

1. Cost of running a losing campaign.

2. Huge LPC debt.

3. Time out of power.

Harper will be more effective than Martin was as a minority PM. Will it be enough to win him a majority next go round? Of course nobody knows that at this point.

The GTA, Lower Mainland and Montreal are not even close to *strong holds the likes of Ralph Klein's*. Alberta has elected a majority (small-c) conservative members in every riding since at least 1957, likely far earlier but I didn't have the energy to look into it. 1988 wasn't all that long ago for Conservative wins in each of those metropolitan areas.

You are definitely overstating the amount he needs to achieve in this Parliament.

If he behaves like a leader, returns a semblence of decorum to the House of Commons and achieves results on each of his five priorities he will go a long way to putting the *scary* *scary* *scary* to bed for good...

You're assuming Harper is going to be effective in his current minority. Unless he tows the line on his promise to Quebecers to fix the imbalance and involve them where their interests are involved, those 10 seats disappear. He's got most of rural Canada so the only place for him to make real gains are in the 416, 905, 604 and 514/819 which have been Liberal strong holds the likes of Ralph Klein's.

I think that barring a heroic effort by Harper in this parliament, that the chances of the Liberal leader are better/sooner than you suggest.

[Hicksey]

Harper's no Mulroney. I like him for different reasons than Mulroney, but he's still a long ways from proving he's worth a majority. And I don't see this parliament functioning well as it is made up right now. The other 3 are too well poised to be formidable obstructionists. And if they succeed, what's to say that the voters who can be swayed aren't going to look back after 12-18 months and think that there's no point in electing a conservative minority because the other 3 won't work with them. So in essense, my belief is that unless he really impresses, he's gone next time around. It will be a majority or nothing in my opinion.

About your points on the Liberal leadership ...

You make a good point. Maybe its not that the position is undesirable, its that they may have so far to come back that by the time comes that the party is sufficiently rebuilt, that they'll not be around to enjoy the fruits of their labour.

Of course, these arguments all depend on assumptions we have no way of knowing whether or not will come true.

Did you want to actually look at the reasons why high profile candidates are fleeing running for the LPC leadership?

I put forth three separate points to explain why high profile candidates won't run.

1. Cost of running a losing campaign.

2. Huge LPC debt.

3. Time out of power.

Harper will be more effective than Martin was as a minority PM. Will it be enough to win him a majority next go round? Of course nobody knows that at this point.

The GTA, Lower Mainland and Montreal are not even close to *strong holds the likes of Ralph Klein's*. Alberta has elected a majority (small-c) conservative members in every riding since at least 1957, likely far earlier but I didn't have the energy to look into it. 1988 wasn't all that long ago for Conservative wins in each of those metropolitan areas.

You are definitely overstating the amount he needs to achieve in this Parliament.

If he behaves like a leader, returns a semblence of decorum to the House of Commons and achieves results on each of his five priorities he will go a long way to putting the *scary* *scary* *scary* to bed for good...

You're assuming Harper is going to be effective in his current minority. Unless he tows the line on his promise to Quebecers to fix the imbalance and involve them where their interests are involved, those 10 seats disappear. He's got most of rural Canada so the only place for him to make real gains are in the 416, 905, 604 and 514/819 which have been Liberal strong holds the likes of Ralph Klein's.

I think that barring a heroic effort by Harper in this parliament, that the chances of the Liberal leader are better/sooner than you suggest.

[fellowtraveller]

I put forth three separate points to explain why high profile candidates won't run.

1. Cost of running a losing campaign.

2. Huge LPC debt.

3. Time out of power.

1. Candidates do not normally personally finance the cost of a campaign, unless they are truly fringe candidates. They raise funds and spend those. If they relaize they can't raise any money eg have no support, they don't run. None of this really applies to true contenders. You're not a contender unless you have support going in.

2. The huge LPC debt(and the actual size seems to be a grey area) is not your concern as a candidate, and would not be a prime concern as Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition.

3. Time out of power may be very short. As leader of the Liberals, you know that it is entirely possible that you could be come PM without doing much of anything.

The main reason a 'high profile' person would not run is if they realize that the money/support just isn't there within the Party for them. Chronic Liberal supporters and kingmakers are not going to commit now, they 'll wairt and see which way the wind blows. And we don't know who will declare when the campaign starts in 6 months or so, so we cannot assess whether the higher profile people will run or not at this time.

Wait and see.