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Trump was leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up


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Trump was leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up

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So far, the Biden campaign’s strategy has been to publicly dismiss the polls rather than confront their bad numbers head-on. For instance, at the opening ceremony of a campaign field office in Manchester, New Hampshire, Biden disparaged polls as inaccurate and stuck using old-fashioned technology.

Biden is wrong about that. Despite the challenges facing the industry, polls remain as accurate as ever. But that doesn’t mean that polls taken eight months before Election Day are reliable predictors of the final outcome. My analysis of polling from past elections reveals that there is plenty of precedent for a candidate like Biden to gain enough ground to win the election. Moreover, I find there is more uncertainty in the polls now than in previous cycles, further casting doubt on the early gloomy prognostication about Biden’s odds. 

 

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