login Posted November 29, 2012 Report Posted November 29, 2012 (edited) http://www.reuters.c...E8AS05E20121129 This is a big move... imo. I'm actually very currious if anything will come of it. snip **** New rules, which come into effect on January 1, will allow Hainan police to board and seize control of foreign ships which "illegally enter" Chinese waters and order them to change course or stop sailing, Edited November 29, 2012 by login Quote
TimG Posted November 29, 2012 Report Posted November 29, 2012 (edited) This is a big move... imo. I'm actually very currious if anything will come of it.There will likely be some maritime incident with one of the countries, Heated rhetoric will follow and China will need to decide whether it is a mature nation that is willing to deal peacefully with its neighbors or a violent thug that seeks to use its size to annex the territories of its neighbors. So far the peaceful option is not looking likely given the rise of nationalism in China. There are a lot of similarities between the expansionist ambitions of China today and those of pre-WW2 Japan and there is a huge risk that Chinese arrogance will plunge the region into war. Edited November 29, 2012 by TimG Quote
login Posted December 8, 2012 Author Report Posted December 8, 2012 (edited) Well its not all one sided it is already an actual fallout situation as Chinese passports are no longer being recognized to the south... http://www.strategyp...s/20121207.aspx Also India and the US arn't gaurenteeing safe passage to all ships only saying they will not recognize it for themselves meaning all the little guys don't have military support from India and the US on the issue. meaning they may allow it to happen (probably for effect) The Taiwan issue is very heated.............. As china probably COULD embargo Taiwan unless the US actually broke the blockade. Taiwans attempt to break it themselves would likely not be too pretty. Someone I spoke to thinks the new head Chinese guy isn't into war though.......... It definately has powder keg potential. The everyone vs. China scenario has been developed over the last while though.... China is the only one with nukes though... It would be miraculous economic suicide for the US to get into it militarily, amusingly so. I have no clue on this one, but I think it is highly likely the chinese will police resource rich areas. http://www.google.ca/imgres?q=resource+areas+of+south+china+sea+map+oil+gas+deposits&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&tbo=d&biw=1344&bih=546&tbm=isch&tbnid=bxErAlHKDRkZwM:&imgrefurl=http://twelfthbough.blogspot.com/2012/01/parasites-on-move.html&docid=hPfYnb3R_LwcBM&imgurl=http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ViZSg1k6_cY/TxML38mWt2I/AAAAAAAAC-A/LPR1yIL586k/s1600/oil%252Band%252Bgas%252Bdeposits%252Bsouth%252Bchina%252Bsea.png&w=520&h=524&ei=v-rCUKTdAYrGygHn2oD4CQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=144&vpy=203&dur=1707&hovh=225&hovw=224&tx=159&ty=131&sig=108019532912418955188&page=1&tbnh=146&tbnw=145&start=0&ndsp=22&ved=1t:429,r:8,s:0,i:108 ftp://ftp.fisheries.ubc.ca/l.teh/destructive%20fishing/South%20china%20sea.pdf Edited December 8, 2012 by login Quote
TimG Posted December 8, 2012 Report Posted December 8, 2012 The everyone vs. China scenario has been developed over the last while though.... China is the only one with nukes though...Japan is six months away from going nuclear if they need to.It would be miraculous economic suicide for the US to get into it militarily, amusingly so.The trouble is things could play out where the US has no choice. i.e. a failure to respond to overt Chinese aggression against a ally would completely destroy US credibility around the world. You also need to remember that 30% of the food Chinese eat must be imported. This makes the Chinese extremely vulnerable if a real war broke out. Quote
DogOnPorch Posted December 8, 2012 Report Posted December 8, 2012 Japan is six months away from going nuclear if they need to. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Non-Nuclear_Principles Quote Nothing cracks a turtle like Leon Uris.
TimG Posted December 8, 2012 Report Posted December 8, 2012 (edited) http://en.wikipedia....lear_PrinciplesChinese aggression has radically changed Japanese public opinion in the last 12 months. There is talk of changing the constitution to allow Japanese military to be deployed more quickly. If China gets more aggressive and the Japanese doubt the resolve of their US ally they will build nukes - prior statements not withstanding. Edited December 8, 2012 by TimG Quote
DogOnPorch Posted December 8, 2012 Report Posted December 8, 2012 Chinese aggression has radically changed Japanese public opinion in the last 12 months. There is talk of changing the constitution to allow Japanese military to be deployed more quickly. If China gets more aggressive and the Japanese doubt the resolve of their US ally they will build nukes - prior statements not withstanding. Sounds like a plan. It is still a hurdle to nuclear weapons in Japan. But, if the political climate will allow such a change... Quote Nothing cracks a turtle like Leon Uris.
TimG Posted December 8, 2012 Report Posted December 8, 2012 Sounds like a plan. It is still a hurdle to nuclear weapons in Japan. But, if the political climate will allow such a change...It has changed but there are a few steps that need to happen first before nukes would be placed on the table. If Japan did resort to nukes it will only be because it has completely lost faith in the US. Quote
DogOnPorch Posted December 8, 2012 Report Posted December 8, 2012 It has changed but there are a few steps that need to happen first before nukes would be placed on the table. If Japan did resort to nukes it will only be because it has completely lost faith in the US. Well, they definitely have some nice large rockets. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-IIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAvs4DctMZ4 Quote Nothing cracks a turtle like Leon Uris.
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