North Korean Disarmament

[Tawasakm]

I just read this short article

Korean Disarmament Talks

There are scheduled to be six party talks between the US, China, Russia, Japan and North and South Korea. These are to be followed by diplomatic efforts from Australia (which has diplomatic relations with North Korea - unlike the US).

Does anybody have any insights into these latest efforts?

[idealisttotheend]

This one is going to be tough for the US.

1) if the DPRK really has a sub launched delivery system this could be a major problem for the US. It likely could easily track a diesel powered sub but there would be a larger element of risk and I wonder if the US is ready to accept that risk.

2) An invasion is not practical. After all China and the US may be getting along much better (with China being the US's banker and manufacturer) and the North Koreans and China may not have all that much in common nowadays but I doubt China would stand for an American action in the DPRK besides perhaps a few limited airstrikes. Furthermore it is unlikely that the US would actually invade a country known to have nuclear weapons.

3) Pyonygang is clearly looking for a bailout in exchange for dismatling it's new program. In fact it has a greater interest in the bailout than the weapons. However it would not play well domestically in the US to bailout an "axis of evil" member. North Korea may be expecting the Lybia treatment but I can't see it getting it unless the funds come from SE Asia itself (like Japan).

This will set an important precedant for the US and it will be very interesting to see how it turns out.

[idealisttotheend]

This link provides a comprehensive history of nuclear weapons in North Korea and the legalese attached.

fas.org