Will Charest lose his majority?

[August1991]

Quebec's next general election should take place in the fall of 2012 - one year from now. Charest could conceivably push the date to the spring of 2013.

At present however, the Liberals have a razor thin margin of 64 seats in a National Assembly of 125 seats. Following the resignation of a liberal MNA, there will be a byelection in Argenteuil in the next 6 months. Many other Liberals (including cabinet ministers) have made it known that they want to resign too. (As they say, it's better to look for a job while you're employed.)

François Legault's CAQ now has 8 MNAs. It has attracted 2 ex-PQ and, in effect, 6 ex-ADQ MNAs. Legault is making an open play for Liberal MNAs to cross the floor. In all likelihood, the CAQ will win any future by-elections.

So, it is very possible that in the next 6 months, Charest will lose his outright majority in the National Assembly either through by-elections or floor-crossings. Yet if Charest loses a majority, it is unlikely that this would precipitate a Quebec general election. The PQ, unless Marois resigns, is unlikely to want an election anytime soon.

A Charest minority government however would lose control of the agenda. For example, the combined opposition (PQ, CAQ, QS) would likely force Charest to bring to the forefront an enquiry into corruption. At present, Charest is dragging his feet.

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What of the CAQ and the next general election?

At present, the CAQ is doing well in polls. The election may be 18 months away but I don't see any reason for the polls to change. The result will be a CAQ majority and a major defeat for both the Liberals and the PQ. The Liberals may keep 20 or so seats and the PQ will be reduced to a handful. I think Legault may make inroads even among anglophones and allophones.

There is much handwringing among Quebec's nattering political class about the CAQ: is it Leftist? On the Right?

I think everyone misses the point. Legault (founder of Air Transat and an ex-PQ cabinet minister) has firmly stated that the question of Quebec sovereignty is a question for his grandchildren to resolve. At the moment, Quebec has other issues that need attention.

These words are a balm to many, many people in Quebec. IMV, this explains Legault's political support and explains likely while he'll be Quebec's next PM.

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Ever since Wolfe's ships arrived in the St-Lawrence in 1759, people in Quebec have debated the existence of French Catholic North America. Quebec nationalism is hardly new. For the past 50 years however, the question of sovereignty has divided the Quebec family in a way that past national debates did not.

People, and families, are tired of this current permutation. To them, Legault is speaking sense.

Quebec's political class however is like a cat chasing its tail or chasing a toy on a spring. When the cat stops its obsessive chase, it looks around in confusion.

Edited December 20, 2011 by August1991

[jbg]

Where is the CAQ ideologically and on the federalism issue?

[August1991]

Where is the CAQ ideologically and on the federalism issue?

Ideologically, it's all over the map. For example, Legault is on record to allow some kind of private sector involvement in health care and he wants to streamline the education bureaucracy. As to Quebec's status in Canada, Legault has said that it's a question for a future generation.

The current CAQ caucus is truly a mixed bag.

« L'objectif de la Coalition, c'est de rassembler. On a convaincu un certain nombre de députés du Parti québécois, on a convaincu l'ADQ et ce qui nous manque, actuellement, c'est quelques députés du Parti libéral qui acceptent de sortir de l'ancien paradigme et d'entrer dans une nouvelle ère. On a quand même ciblé des gens. On va tendre des perches par personne interposée », a confié le chef coalisé en entrevue, mardi.

...

François Legault insiste : ce qui manque actuellement à son parti, ce sont des députés libéraux. « C'est vraiment un appel que je fais, car je ne peux pas concevoir, avec ce qui est arrivé au cours des deux dernières années, avec tout ce qui a été sorti dans le rapport Duchesneau, qu'il n'y ait aucun député libéral mal à l'aise avec son parti », a-t-il renchéri.

QMI

I have never seen this where an opposition leader openly says that he will contact sitting members to have them cross the floor. Legault is directly challenging Charest.

The likelihood of Charest losing his majority is very great.

[TimG]

The likelihood of Charest losing his majority is very great.

In a democracy governments must change hands from time to time. Charest has lasted longer than he should hav ebecause of the federalist/sovereigntist issue. The rise of a CAQ is a good thing for Quebec and even for the Quebec Liberal Party (in the long term at least).

[jbg]

In a democracy governments must change hands from time to time. Charest has lasted longer than he should hav ebecause of the federalist/sovereigntist issue. The rise of a CAQ is a good thing for Quebec and even for the Quebec Liberal Party (in the long term at least).

Charest has not lasted nearly as long as Duplesse.

[Evening Star]

I'm having trouble gauging the CAQ. They're centrists and, essentially, federalists, yeah? So are they more or less a substitute for the Liberals without all the baggage of the actual Liberal Party?

Edited December 21, 2011 by Evening Star

[Evening Star]

(If that's the case, they might well be an improvement.)

[TimG]

Charest has not lasted nearly as long as Duplesse.

Duplesse is another politician that over stayed his welcome.

[August1991]

In a democracy governments must change hands from time to time.

True, but Charest won a fair majority in the last general election. In theory, the next general election should be in fall 2012 or spring 2013.

Change hands? The current Quebec situation is different. Legault is openly poaching sitting members from a government caucus with a bare majority. IME, this is unprecedented - except maybe in Newfoundland. Legault and Charest are like roosters fighting one another.

If Legault is successful, Charest may lose his majority in the National Assembly. If this happens, Charest will lose control of the political agenda.

I'm having trouble gauging the CAQ. They're centrists and, essentially, federalists, yeah? So are they more or less a substitute for the Liberals without all the baggage of the actual Liberal Party?

That's how the CAQ will likely present itself to English/allophone voters.

In fact, Legault was once a PQ cabinet minister - and francophones know this.

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Evening Star, this question is complicated in Quebec. To his credit, François Legault has said that Quebec sovereignty is a question for his grandchildren. Other questions, now, are more pressing.

Edited December 22, 2011 by August1991