Predictions for the weeks to come...

[August1991]

At the risk of being completely foolish in public, here are my predictions before we know the results:

There is little doubt that it will be a minority government with either the Libs or the Tories having a plurality of seats. PM PM has said that the party with the most seats gets first dibs at forming a government.

There is little chance the NDP will have enough seats to support alone a minority government.

Hence, the Liberals or the Tories will have to support each other on a confidence vote or seek support from the the BQ.

My prediction: A minority Tory government that will last for as long as two years. It will do this by seeking usually BQ support but Liberal support when the BQ won't offer it.

Even if the Libs get most seats, my prediction will still come true. There is no way the BQ and the Tories will support a Liberal government. But the BQ will support a Tory government.

I suspect Duceppe and Harper have already talked about this in very general terms. It explains in part their relative calmness in the past few days.

The BQ is in a funny position. It doesn't want to become a permanent fixture. But it also wants to make plain that it can get along with English Canada.

The Liberals will have a new leader within one year.

[The Terrible Sweal]

I think that if either the Liberals or Conservatives appear to be sustained for any length of time by the Bloc alone, they will lose credibility in ROC.

Frankly, however, I see no prospect of the Bloc being able to stomach working with the Alliance Rump anyway, unless they together adopt an aggressive agenda of carving up the country right away.

Furthermore, I'm not even certain the Conservative caucus could remain intact in a minority situation, given the quick mortar job that's holding that foundation together.

So, in your scenario, NDP nowhere, Bloc holding the balance, a Conservative minority won't last six months. I don't know what the Liberals would do if they have the plurality.

[August1991]

You underestimate the shrewdness of Stephen Harper and Gilles Duceppe. You also ignore the old adage, "Politics makes for strange bedfellows." Alliance rump? We don't yet know what the Tory caucus will look like but there will be some 40 new MPs from Ontario.

I think PM PM will resign (and that would ensure no election while they choose a new leader) but I'm not so certain as I was before.

But given the ugly civil war in the Liberal Party in the past few months, Herle is history and PM PM most likely too, whether he wants to resign or not.