The Federal NDP Caucus -How Soon Will It Split?

[August1991]

With the NDP at over 40% in Quebec, it appears that the NDP will elect over 50 MPs from Quebec on May 2nd. They will form over half the NDP caucus in Ottawa.

Who are these NDP candidates and soon-to-be MPs? How likely will they stay together with fellow federal NDP MPs from elsewhere?

Well, there's Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie that Amir Khadr has described as a “souverainiste et progressiste”.

Then there's the now infamous Ruth Ellen Brosseau who is back from her vacation in Las Vegas but has been unavailable to journalists. (NDP media guy says that with all the media attention, she's not really available for interviews... )

Then there's Charmaine Borg, 20, running in Terrebonne. She's a university student. Her boyfriend is active in the NDP campaign.

Tyrone Benskin in Jeanne-LeBer would be a good candidate in Toronto. Unfortunately, he doesn't speak French well.

Isabelle Maguire in Richmond/Arthabaska is now on a vacation in France. She wrote on her Facebook page that she was too busy finishing her Master's thesis to campaign.

Or how about Cheryl Voisine in Mégantic-L’Érable. She's a unilingual anglophone who has not been active in the campaign.

Mathieu Ravignat in Pontiac, an ex-communist and karate instructor. He'll likely beat Lawrence Cannon.

Lise St-Denis in Saint-Maurice (Chretien's old riding). She's 71 and lives in Montreal and has no connection to the riding.

Pierre Dionne Labelle in Rivière-du-Nord. He favours social justice and Quebec sovereignty.

And these are just some of the random names that I found after a cursory search on the Internet.

----

Some people compare this group to the ADQ caucus elected in 2007 and there's some truth to this. But what this comaprison ignores is the issue of Quebec independence. This will inevitably divide the NDP caucus and I suspect in short order, a significant number of NDP MPs from Quebec will sit independently. Thomas Mulcair does not have the personality to keep a troublesome caucus together. And leftists have a propensity to argue and sub-divide.

The ADQ comparison is apt for another reason. If the Conservatives form a minority government, we will likely be in another federal election (hélas!) in about a year. The NDP will lose all these seats.

----

We ostensibly raised MP salaries and gave them a good pension to attract better candidates yet about 7-8 of the NDP candidates in Quebec are students. It is a mockery of representative democracy to have a 20 year old who sits as an MP merely because of party affiliation. When Claude Charron was elected as an MNA at 23, he fought hard to win his seat. That's not the case here. It is equally absurd to say that we need young people to represent young people.

[nittanylionstorm07]

With the NDP at over 40% in Quebec, it appears that the NDP will elect over 50 MPs from Quebec on May 2nd. They will form over half the NDP caucus in Ottawa.

Who are these NDP candidates and soon-to-be MPs? How likely will they stay together with fellow federal NDP MPs from elsewhere?

Well, there's Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie that Amir Khadr has described as a “souverainiste et progressiste”.

Then there's the now infamous Ruth Ellen Brosseau who is back from her vacation in Las Vegas but has been unavailable to journalists. (NDP media guy says that with all the media attention, she's not really available for interviews... )

Then there's Charmaine Borg, 20, running in Terrebonne. She's a university student. Her boyfriend is active in the NDP campaign.

Tyrone Benskin in Jeanne-LeBer would be a good candidate in Toronto. Unfortunately, he doesn't speak French well.

Isabelle Maguire in Richmond/Arthabaska is now on a vacation in France. She wrote on her Facebook page that she was too busy finishing her Master's thesis to campaign.

Or how about Cheryl Voisine in Mégantic-L’Érable. She's a unilingual anglophone who has not been active in the campaign.

Mathieu Ravignat in Pontiac, an ex-communist and karate instructor. He'll likely beat Lawrence Cannon.

Lise St-Denis in Saint-Maurice (Chretien's old riding). She's 71 and lives in Montreal and has no connection to the riding.

Pierre Dionne Labelle in Rivière-du-Nord. He favours social justice and Quebec sovereignty.

And these are just some of the random names that I found after a cursory search on the Internet.

----

Some people compare this group to the ADQ caucus elected in 2007 and there's some truth to this. But what this comaprison ignores is the issue of Quebec independence. This will inevitably divide the NDP caucus and I suspect in short order, a significant number of NDP MPs from Quebec will sit independently. Thomas Mulcair does not have the personality to keep a troublesome caucus together. And leftists have a propensity to argue and sub-divide.

The ADQ comparison is apt for another reason. If the Conservatives form a minority government, we will likely be in another federal election (hélas!) in about a year. The NDP will lose all these seats.

----

We ostensibly raised MP salaries and gave them a good pension to attract better candidates yet about 7-8 of the NDP candidates in Quebec are students. It is a mockery of representative democracy to have a 20 year old who sits as an MP merely because of party affiliation. When Claude Charron was elected as an MNA at 23, he fought hard to win his seat. That's not the case here. It is equally absurd to say that we need young people to represent young people.

So because some people voting for the NDP are nationalist/sovereigntists, that means there is a huge caucus in the NDP that will be too?

I guess since some people who vote Tory are neo-Nazis, there must be a sizeable caucus of neo-Nazis in the Tories.

[CANADIEN]

The problem with the upcoming NDP Quebec caucus is not that some of them may be pro-sovereignty, or that some may have little command of French while representing a majority French-speaking riding. Or that that many of them or young, or that some didn't bother campaigning.

It's that the NDP took the first militants willing to be sacrificial lambs... Because anybody wohowould have said on the day the campaign started that they would poll at 40% of the Quebec vote the weekend before the vote would have been looked at funny by most everyone, including NDP strategists.

Next time, they'll put more efforts in how they choose their Quebec candidates because they'll know they can win quite a few ridings.

[TTM]

We ostensibly raised MP salaries and gave them a good pension to attract better candidates yet about 7-8 of the NDP candidates in Quebec are students. It is a mockery of representative democracy to have a 20 year old who sits as an MP merely because of party affiliation. When Claude Charron was elected as an MNA at 23, he fought hard to win his seat. That's not the case here. It is equally absurd to say that we need young people to represent young people.

More benefits of FPTP in a party system.

[August1991]

The problem with the upcoming NDP Quebec caucus is not that some of them may be pro-sovereignty, or that some may have little command of French while representing a majority French-speaking riding. Or that that many of them or young, or that some didn't bother campaigning.

It's that the NDP took the first militants willing to be sacrificial lambs... Because anybody wohowould have said on the day the campaign started that they would poll at 40% of the Quebec vote the weekend before the vote would have been looked at funny by most everyone, including NDP strategists..

Next time, they'll put more efforts in how they choose their Quebec candidates because they'll know they can win quite a few ridings.

Canadien, that's hilarious. What "next time" are you talking about? The federal election of 2034?

Once voters in Quebec discover who their MPs are, the NDP brand will be finished in Quebec. And once English-Canada discovers who the Quebec MPs are, the NDP brand may well be finished in English Canada too.

Jack Layton is about to lead a federal NDP caucus with over half its members from Quebec, many of whom favour Quebec indpendence, don't speak French or have no connection to their riding.

The first thing that will happen is that the sovereigntists will sit as a separate caucus beside the other NDP MPs. Then the leftists will start to argue among themselves - particularly since the majesty of power/importance will rise to their heads.

This won't be a slow-motion train wreck. This will be a three-ring circus comedy.

I guess since some people who vote Tory are neo-Nazis, there must be a sizeable caucus of neo-Nazis in the Tories.

NinnyLion, this is not about NDP voters in Quebec. It is about NDP candidates. Given current polls, these people will soon be sitting in Canada's federal House of Commons.

[CANADIEN]

Canadien, that's hilarious.

We both agree in our opinion of your postings. .

Once voters in Quebec discover who their MPs are (...)

It has been all over the news. I don't see the NDP tanking yet.

And most likely, the NDP will do a better job in choosing its candidates in the next election because, unlike this time, they'll have an expectation they can win ridings.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Canadien, that's hilarious. What "next time" are you talking about? The federal election of 2034?

Once voters in Quebec discover who their MPs are, the NDP brand will be finished in Quebec. And once English-Canada discovers who the Quebec MPs are, the NDP brand may well be finished in English Canada too.

Jack Layton is about to lead a federal NDP caucus with over half its members from Quebec, many of whom favour Quebec indpendence, don't speak French or have no connection to their riding.

The first thing that will happen is that the sovereigntists will sit as a separate caucus beside the other NDP MPs. Then the leftists will start to argue among themselves - particularly since the majesty of power/importance will rise to their heads.

This won't be a slow-motion train wreck. This will be a three-ring circus comedy.

NinnyLion, this is not about NDP voters in Quebec. It is about NDP candidates. Given current polls, these people will soon be sitting in Canada's federal House of Commons.

You just contradicted yourself. You're saying that since there is a large size of NDP MPs from Quebec, they'll be sovereigntists country-killers... but then you say when the Quebeckers realize who they are (really federalist) that they will dump them.

You make no sense.

[August1991]

More benefits of FPTP in a party system.

In a PR system, the parties select the candidates and the party list. If party lists were created on a provincial basis, how would this have changed anything? The NDP selected the current candidats poteaux in Quebec now.

Moreover, everyone who favours a PR system ignores the fact that voters will change their votes as a consequence. This election is remarkable for "strategic voting". Voters are smarter than the bureaucrats or theorists who devise voting systems. It is naive to believe that a PR system will magically make people vote truthfully.

[August1991]

It has been all over the news. I don't see the NDP tanking yet.

You're a political junkie who reads the news and participates in political forums (in English). Most normal people aren't like you.

And most likely, the NDP will do a better job in choosing its candidates in the next election because, unlike this time, they'll have an expectation they can win ridings.

Canadien, there won't be a next time. If the candidate is a good MP, then they'll face re-election like any MP. And if they're bad, well they'll face re-election too.

You just contradicted yourself. You're saying that since there is a large size of NDP MPs from Quebec, they'll be sovereigntists country-killers... but then you say when the Quebeckers realize who they are (really federalist) that they will dump them.

You make no sense.

NinnyLion, there are 75 NDP candidates in Quebec. Current polls show that the NDP is around 40% in Quebec and potentially about 50 NDP candidates will get elected. Some of them will be sovereignists, some speak French and some will even be in Canada next Monday.

For those newly elected federal NDP MPs who favour Quebec as a separate country, they will soon have arguments with their fellow NDP MPs from other parts of Canada. (Mulroney and Harper will understand the problem. But nationalists elected as Conservative federal MPs are one thing. This crop of federal NDP MPs from Quebec is something else.) And then they'll caucus separately.

For those newly elected federal NDP MPs who don't speak French, speak it badly or have no connection to the riding, they have basically zero chance for re-election. They will be like the ADQ MNAs who sat in the National Assembly for about a year. No, it will be worse. At least the ADQ MNAs could speak French.

And finally, there will be a few NDP MPs from Quebec who will turn out to do well. (American Idol, federal NDP version.)

Overall, Layton is going to become OLO, have many problems to deal with and he's going to have various constant eruptions in his caucus. This is a recipe for disaster.

Edited May 1, 2011 by August1991

[Posc Student]

Next time, they'll put more efforts in how they choose their Quebec candidates because they'll know they can win quite a few ridings.

The NDP received their highest amount of support in Newfoundland and Labrador last election and still never managed to get many qualified candidates this time. They have a university student running who didn't campaigned, unless she has in the last couple of days, even though the party placed second in the riding in 2008 with nearly 25% of the vote with only $5,000 spent. In another riding they have a candidate who did campaign but is now vacationing out of the country, another candidate decided to campaign last week after the NDP went up in the polls. They do have three candidates though who are putting in an effort, though one of them has no chance.

[CANADIEN]

The NDP received their highest amount of support in Newfoundland and Labrador last election and still never managed to get many qualified candidates this time. They have a university student running who didn't campaigned, unless she has in the last couple of days, even though the party placed second in the riding in 2008 with nearly 25% of the vote with only $5,000 spent. In another riding they have a candidate who did campaign but is now vacationing out of the country, another candidate decided to campaign last week after the NDP went up in the polls. They do have three candidates though who are putting in an effort, though one of them has no chance.

And there has been stories about Conservative candidates missing in action - none about Liberal, but I am sure there are some there too. It is what happen when you have to take about anyone who shows up as a candidate for a given riding because nobody thinks there is much of a chance of a win.

[Evening Star]

(Mulroney and Harper will understand the problem. But nationalists elected as Conservative federal MPs are one thing. This crop of federal NDP MPs from Quebec is something else.)

Why is this a different situation from what Mulroney dealt with in his first term?

[CANADIEN]

It is one thing to argue that Layton will have problems dealing with a caucus made up of people who, quie frankly, didn't stand a chance of winning five weeks ago. It is another thing to claim that he mislead the public on this.

[TTM]

In a PR system, the parties select the candidates and the party list. If party lists were created on a provincial basis, how would this have changed anything? The NDP selected the current candidats poteaux in Quebec now.

You are aware there are more choices that FPTP and proportional, right? Myself, I prefer mixed proportional, with ~2/3 of candidates from ridings, ~1/3 from lists. Voters choose seperately both a local candidate and a party. This way if they don't like the local candidate, they can vote for one they do like, but still lend their vote to the party of their choice. It is obviously still in the parties interest to field good candidates, and voters can't whine if they elect a crap candidate.

Moreover, everyone who favours a PR system ignores the fact that voters will change their votes as a consequence. This election is remarkable for "strategic voting". Voters are smarter than the bureaucrats or theorists who devise voting systems. It is naive to believe that a PR system will magically make people vote truthfully.

Strategic voting is undesirable, but I can't see how that is a knock against alternate forms of voting since it is probably most prevalent under FPTP

[August1991]

It is one thing to argue that Layton will have problems dealing with a caucus made up of people who, quie frankly, didn't stand a chance of winning five weeks ago. It is another thing to claim that he mislead the public on this.

Canadien, what planet are you living on?

On my planet, 2+3=5.

----

Layton is going to be OLO next week. He'll have a caucus of about 100 MPs, over half from Quebec. He can complain all he wants that it's not the caucus he wanted, but it's the caucus he has.

Did Layton mislead the public? On this, voters don't really care whether Layton mislead them. They'll just know that their MP can't speak English, or that the NDP has a bunch of separatists.

And the NDP brand will be tarnished.

Edited May 1, 2011 by August1991

[August1991]

Why is this a different situation from what Mulroney dealt with in his first term?

Fabien Roy and Lucien Bouchard are nothing like Alexandre Boulerice. Edited May 1, 2011 by August1991

[CANADIEN]

Canadien, what planet are you living on?

Earth. Try moving there some time.

Did Layton mislead the public? On this, voters don't really care whether Layton mislead them.

Well, you are the one who first mentioned that Layton was misleading voters.

They'll just know that their MP can't speak English

And I thought the problem was with MPs who barely spoke French.

Edited May 1, 2011 by CANADIEN

[Evening Star]

Fabien Roy and Lucien Bouchard are nothing like Alexandre Boulerice.

I dunno, he seems like an OK union guy and community member. Who knows? Layton and Mulcair are fairly strong personalities who could probably maintain a fair level of control over a caucus. Perhaps these young backbenchers will bring something fresh. I think Niki Ashton, for example, has been a good presence in Parliament.

(I do see the potential for comedy as well, to be clear.)

[Evening Star]

Mike Harris had a roughly similar situation as well, right?

[CANADIEN]

Mike Harris had a roughly similar situation as well, right?

And remember there were a few shall we say controversial figures in the first bunch of Reformers elected to Parliament.

[August1991]

I dunno, he seems like an OK union guy and community member. Who knows? Layton and Mulcair are fairly strong personalities who could probably maintain a fair level of control over a caucus.

Mulcair left the Quebec Liberal caucus/government because (what is the English bureaucratic term?) he lacks "people skills".

As to Boulerice, he is a Libby Davis who wants an independent Québec.

Layton as opposition leader will be far too busy with other matters than his caucus, and Quebec MPs. Mulcair will be Quebec lieutenant until, well, there is no Quebec NDP caucus except for Mulcair and a few anglophones.

Mike Harris had a roughly similar situation as well, right?

Harris in Ontario had the advantage of being in government and handing out money. Layton in opposition has no perks to give.

The only perk Layton will be able to offer is: "You're a federal MP!" Make no mistake, Trudeau set up a wonderful system that Mulroney copied to teach new MPs how to be "Members of Parliament". Until an ordinary Canadian has "gone to Ottawa", it is hard to describe. For women, it's like a spa. And for men, it's like a Thai sex club. (Toronto massage?)

That will last for about six months, and then the NDP MPs will start to argue.

Edited May 1, 2011 by August1991

[KeyStone]

Well, you seem to believe that many of the NDP candidates are both separatist and Anglophone which is an odd combination. Aside from your general hysteria, the fact of the matter is that there are a large number of MP's from Quebec who are completely unqualified.

I don't think that the NDP is going to divide into two separate caucuses, I think that the NDP veterans will work with the new candidates to get them up to speed in a hurry. Regardless, they will be selective about who their cabinet is, and will likely not take a representative number from Quebec.

This election serves the country well in showing how incredibly foolish the party system is.

We don't even vote for a Prime Minister, and yet people don't care who their local candidate is.

While at the same time, the PM who we didn't vote for has the power to force all the MP's to vote a certain way on a bill.

The whole electoral system is a mess and needs a complete overhaul.

[August1991]

Well, you seem to believe that many of the NDP candidates are both separatist and Anglophone which is an odd combination.

KeyStone, we are talking about 75 different people. Some of them are unilingual anglophone, and some of them want to make Quebec a separate country.

I`m not saying that some are both.

I don't think that the NDP is going to divide into two separate caucuses, I think that the NDP veterans will work with the new candidates to get them up to speed in a hurry.

And I also believe [sarcasm alert] that a retiring teacher cares more about the kids in her class than about her seniority status and her pension benefits.

This election serves the country well in showing how incredibly foolish the party system is.

We don't even vote for a Prime Minister, and yet people don't care who their local candidate is.

While at the same time, the PM who we didn't vote for has the power to force all the MP's to vote a certain way on a bill.

The whole electoral system is a mess and needs a complete overhaul.

Keystone, do you understand the irony of your post? On one hand, you defend the NDP and argue that it won't divide. On the other, you decry the party system.

Irony.

Edited May 1, 2011 by August1991

[Scotty]

Why is this a different situation from what Mulroney dealt with in his first term?

And how did THAT turn out?

[Scotty]

Mike Harris had a roughly similar situation as well, right?

No. The Tories were very strong in Ontario, and very well-organized. The better comparison is Mulroney in Quebec. They weren't strong on the ground there, and they wound up with a lot of MPs of questionable ability, not to mention questionable ethics, and eventually, a large number of them split off and became the Bloc Quebeoise.