Is this the end of the Federal Liberals?

[WWWTT]

Lots of talk about this subject after the merger on the right a few years back,but it seems to have faded.

But now that we are on the cusp of a NDP upset over the Liberals are the leftys on the S.S.Liberal ready to talk merger and abondon ship.

I wouldn't be suprised to see a half dozen libs jump over to Jacks team May 3rd if things keep going at this pace.

The polls are moving in the NDP's favour at a pace that could see them in minority territory, that would cause any die hard Liberal to salivate at the proposition of being on the winning side.

This campaign is getting better by the hour.

WWWTT

[punked]

Liberals don't join the NDP they join the Cons. Look at Quebec, BC, Sask etc.

I mean parties not members BTW.

Edited April 21, 2011 by punked

[charter.rights]

Lots of talk about this subject after the merger on the right a few years back,but it seems to have faded.

But now that we are on the cusp of a NDP upset over the Liberals are the leftys on the S.S.Liberal ready to talk merger and abondon ship.

I wouldn't be suprised to see a half dozen libs jump over to Jacks team May 3rd if things keep going at this pace.

The polls are moving in the NDP's favour at a pace that could see them in minority territory, that would cause any die hard Liberal to salivate at the proposition of being on the winning side.

This campaign is getting better by the hour.

WWWTT

No. But it cold be the end of Stephen Harper if he doesn't get his majority.

[Roger Steele]

I think the Liberals have been in trouble for several years. I believe when they did not have a replacement for their leadership within the party and had to parachute in Michael Ignatieff, their days were numbered. Mr. Ignatieff has not done the Liberal party any favors either. Both the PCs and the NDPs have not had to look very far to find fault with Mr. Ignatieff as is pointed out in both parties TV ads. I think both the PCs and NDPs will have ex-Liberal members joining their ranks in a few weeks.

[Posc Student]

I think the Liberals have been in trouble for several years. I believe when they did not have a replacement for their leadership within the party and had to parachute in Michael Ignatieff, their days were numbered. Mr. Ignatieff has not done the Liberal party any favors either. Both the PCs and the NDPs have not had to look very far to find fault with Mr. Ignatieff as is pointed out in both parties TV ads. I think both the PCs and NDPs will have ex-Liberal members joining their ranks in a few weeks.

Ignatieff is an extremely bright man, and probably wouldn't be a bad prime minister, but the fact is there is way to much dirt on him. The man is really a celebrity in parts of the world and has written so much over the years, a lot of those things he has written though are controversial. It's one thing to say Harper used to say this or that but when you actually have tv interviews, commercials and books on Ignatieff it's hard to cover things up.

------------------

As well while the NDP are gaining in Quebec we also have Nanos, who were on the mark in their 2006 polling, showing them at 12% in Ontario. While strong polling in Quebec could start an orange wave if it does not the NDP may only win a few seats in Ontario, which could make Quebec gains almost pointless.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Layton, while his deputy leader wants to give him the boot it would be hard for Layton to leave if he won a record number of seats.

A new NDP leader could cause them to go down the drain, the party only does well when they have a popular leader because they can make the public believe they are more honest then the Liberals and Conservatives.

I'll be excited to see if the CPC or Liberals start running attack ads against Layton, while the leaders attack him in speeches there are never tv or radio ads attacking him. With Layton now so popular it will be hard for Harper or Ignatieff to bash him without fasing backlash themselves.

Edited April 21, 2011 by Posc Student

[punked]

While the NDP are gaining in Quebec we also have Nanos, who were on the mark in their 2006 polling, showing them at 12% in Ontario. While strong polling in Quebec could start an orange wave if it does not the NDP may only win a few seats in Ontario, which could make Quebec gains almost pointless.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Layton, while his deputy leader wants to give him the boot it would be hard for Layton to leave if he won a record number of seats.

A new NDP leader could cause them to go down the drain, the party only does well when they have a popular leader because they can make the public believe they are more honest then the Liberals and Conservatives.

I'll be excited to see if the CPC or Liberals start running attack ads against Layton, while the leaders attack him in speeches there are never tv or radio ads attacking him. With Layton now so popular it will be hard for Harper or Ignatieff to bash him without fasing backlash themselves.

Yah a Nanos poll of 300 people shows the NDP at 12% while AR and HD polls of thousands has them at 23% in Ontario. It is great what Liberals claw for when they are down.

You can't turn your guns on the third party because then you give them more air time. It doesn't win you anything.

[Posc Student]

Yah a Nanos poll of 300 people shows the NDP at 12% while AR and HD polls of thousands has them at 23% in Ontario. It is great what Liberals claw for when they are down.

You can't turn your guns on the third party because then you give them more air time. It doesn't win you anything.

The Nanos poll is 300 a day for 3 days, 900 people, and they've been polling since the begining of the campaign and the NDP have been low the whole time, they went down to 8% at one point.

[punked]

The Nanos poll is 300 a day for 3 days, 900 people, and they've been polling since the begining of the campaign and the NDP have been low the whole time, they went down to 8% at one point.

Yah but Nanos is the only one showing those numbers and his Ontario numbers were off by 6-7% last election. I would believe if Nanos wasn't the only one showing those numbers. You get 1 bad sampling days in a row and you are screwed with Nanos tiny poll which is what you are seeing. Again no one else has those numbers.

[Posc Student]

Yah but Nanos is the only one showing those numbers and his Ontario numbers were off by 6-7% last election. I would believe if Nanos wasn't the only one showing those numbers. You get 1 bad sampling days in a row and you are screwed with Nanos tiny poll which is what you are seeing. Again no one else has those numbers.

Nanos has been showing lower then usual polling results for the NDP since the begining of the campaign, they went up after the debate but have tumbled again.

You're correct other pollster are showing that they're doing okay in the province, though most of the recent polls we've seen from other pollsters were conducted last week when Nanos had them higher. Some new polls in the morning will show what's been going on over the last few days.

[punked]

Nanos has been showing lower then usual polling results for the NDP since the begining of the campaign, they went up after the debate but have tumbled again.

You're correct other pollster are showing that they're doing okay in the province, though most of the recent polls we've seen from other pollsters were conducted last week when Nanos had them higher. Some new polls in the morning will show what's been going on over the last few days.

We got an Ekos and Crop poll coming out tomorrow we will see how the NDP is doing in Ontario then. Anything above 18% and they will keep all their seats, they get above 20% like many pollsters suggest right now and they are looking at taking seats. This election just got good. Seems to me Liberals have always said to the NDP voter "Come to us so we can beat the Cons" well now is the tipping point time to put your money where your mouth is.

[Posc Student]

The Liberals may be better off with a Conservative majority. Ignatieff would resign, the party could have a proper leadership convention, with an election 4 years away the race would be open to a wider range of people because with a minority it's kind of harder for someone outside caucus to run, the winner would have plenty of time to rebuild and figure out who they're going to be from now on.

A majority would be interesting for the NDP as well. Jack Layton would almost definitely resign, even with a breakthrough in Quebec and possibly the ROC, due to his age. We'd see over the next few years if the NDP pick another likeable leader or not and if an unpopular leader or just someone people are indifferent about can actually maintain the support they say under Jack. Is the NDP only popular now because of there leader or because of there policies? Also if they to manage to have a breakthrough in Quebec we could possibly see the end of the Bloc as a dominant force, or like Quebeckers have done before they may flirt with the NDP give them some seats and then give them the boot.

[punked]

The Liberals may be better off with a Conservative majority. Ignatieff would resign, the party could have a proper leadership convention, with an election 4 years away the race would be open to a wider range of people because with a minority it's kind of harder for someone outside caucus to run, the winner would have plenty of time to rebuild and figure out who they're going to be from now on.

A majority would be interesting for the NDP as well. Jack Layton would almost definitely resign, even with a breakthrough in Quebec and possibly the ROC, due to his age. We'd see over the next few years if the NDP pick another likeable leader or not and if an unpopular leader or just someone people are indifferent about can actually maintain the support they say under Jack. Is the NDP only popular now because of there leader or because of there policies? Also if they to manage to have a breakthrough in Quebec we could possibly see the end of the Bloc as a dominant force, or like Quebeckers have done before they may flirt with the NDP give them some seats and then give them the boot.

The NDP is eating up the Cons lunch to they are way to low to get a majority. The question is how low do the Liberals have to go before they get so scared of the NDP that they start working for the Cons?

There will be no Con majority.

[Posc Student]

The NDP is eating up the Cons lunch to they are way to low to get a majority. The question is how low do the Liberals have to go before they get so scared of the NDP that they start working for the Cons?

There will be no Con majority.

It could still happen, we have two weeks and they only need a dozen seats. They're polling well in Ontario so as long as they hold their seats elsewhere and make gains in Ontario they could win. While the NDP are polling well in Quebec their numbers have changed very little in other parts of the country and they are even lower in places. 20% support for the NDP with 23% plus in Quebec would mean they have gone down elsewhere in Canada.

[Roger Steele]

Ignatieff is an extremely bright man, and probably wouldn't be a bad prime minister, but the fact is there is way to much dirt on him. The man is really a celebrity in parts of the world and has written so much over the years, a lot of those things he has written though are controversial. It's one thing to say Harper used to say this or that but when you actually have tv interviews, commercials and books on Ignatieff it's hard to cover things up.

------------------

The last thing Canada needs is an extremely bright, controversial man as Prime Minister. We have suffered our share of those already.

[Bryan]

No. But it cold be the end of Stephen Harper if he doesn't get his majority.

That's wishful thinking among the left. There's certainly no push that way among Conservatives.

[Posc Student]

That's wishful thinking among the left. There's certainly no push that way among Conservatives.

Not yet because he's still close to a majority. If he can't win a majority on his fourth try, and with the Liberals at their lowest level in history the knives will be out.

Edited April 21, 2011 by Posc Student

[WWWTT]

Ever since Cretien left the party in the hands of Paul Martin they have bein in a whicked slide.

And the liberals that I talk too are all in some kind of "denial" or are living in a fantasy world that somehow they will be back on top.But when you ask them who will take them there and which ridings etc,etc or any details really it becomes obvious that they are counting on luck.

Now heres the thing.The liberals are now made up of well to do MP's who are there only to seize power.Once this becomes futile or a fruitless venture, being an MP will lose its appeal if there will never be an opportunity to have a seat in cabinet.

I predict a mass exodus on a biblical scale

And its only a matter of a few days before we see the polls start swinging in Ontario.When that happens many people will be turning to McGinty and pointing a finger at him and requesting he kindly put his head on the silver platter and close his eyes.

And thats where this problem for the Liberals started,in Ontario,with McGuinty.

WWWTT

[Keepitsimple]

Not yet because he's still close to a majority. If he can't win a majority on his fourth try, and with the Liberals at there lowest level in history the knives will be out.

There's many references to his numerous "tries for a majority" but in fact this is only his second. His first "try" was to get elected - and he lost to Martin. His second was to defeat Martin - which he did and became Prime Minister. His third was when he had to prorogue to fend off the coalition and you could make an argument that he tried for a majority but fell short. Each time Harper has run, he has increased the Conservative seat count substantially. This election is the first time that they are running openly for a majority. It's really just his second try.

[Posc Student]

There's many references to his numerous "tries for a majority" but in fact this is only his second. His first "try" was to get elected - and he lost to Martin. His second was to defeat Martin - which he did and became Prime Minister. His third was when he had to prorogue to fend off the coalition and you could make an argument that he tried for a majority but fell short. Each time Harper has run, he has increased the Conservative seat count substantially. This election is the first time that they are running openly for a majority. It's really just his second try.

The party has successors and without a majority Harper will be gone, he has not done the party any good. The Conservatives should have a majority, they've had the sponsorship scandal, Dion, and now Ignatieff. Harper cannot win over the east, in 2008 the party just barely won more seats then the Liberals.

[Bryan]

The party has successors and without a majority Harper will be gone, he has not done the party any good. The Conservatives should have a majority, they've had the sponsorship scandal, Dion, and now Ignatieff. Harper cannot win over the east, in 2008 the party just barely won more seats then the Liberals.

He's increased their seat count in every single election. How many other leaders of any party has ever done that?

Again, this is wishfull thinking on the part of the left. No one in the CPC membership has any thoughts of replacing Harper.

Also, be careful what you wish for. The next CPC leader will be considerably more right wing than Harper.

[Scotty]

No. But it cold be the end of Stephen Harper if he doesn't get his majority.

Every poll continues to show Harper is more popular than his party.

[capricorn]

I think the Liberals have been in trouble for several years. I believe when they did not have a replacement for their leadership within the party and had to parachute in Michael Ignatieff, their days were numbered.

There's the other aspect that the Liberal back room was looking for a messiah a la PE Trudeau to return them to government pronto. Remember Dion's words at their leadership convention in Montreal: "We must get back to power." Nothing to do with gaining the trust of Canadians following Liberal scandals and sins. It was Chretien, on the advice of his wife Aline, who plucked Dion from the classroom and named him to cabinet as soon as he could.

When that didn't pan out, the search for a charismatic intellectual led them to luring Ignatieff away from Harvard with the promise that in short order he would become Prime Minister of Canada. Ignatieff, always willing to reinvent himself and thinking he can master every career he jumps into, fell under the spell of the potential power of leading a country. Ignatieff was foisted onto the grassroots and anointed to the top spot. The downward spiral continues because the Liberals have yet to understand that to consider yourself the Natural Governing Party of Canada, not earning the right to govern and failing to atone for transgressions is unacceptable to Canadians.

[punked]

There's the other aspect that the Liberal back room was looking for a messiah a la PE to return them to government pronto. Remember Dion's words at their leadership convention in Montreal: "We must get back to power." Nothing to do with gaining the trust of Canadians following Liberal scandals and sins. It was Chretien, on the advice of his wife Aline, who plucked Dion from the classroom and named him to cabinet as soon as he could.

When that didn't pan out, the search for a charismatic intellectual led them to luring Ignatieff away from Harvard with the promise that in short order he would become Prime Minister of Canada. Ignatieff, always willing to reinvent himself and thinking he can master every career he jumps into, fell under the spell of the potential power of leading a country. Ignatieff was foisted onto the grassroots and anointed to the top spot. The downward spiral continues because the Liberals have yet to understand that to consider yourself the Natural Governing Party of Canada, not earning the right to govern and failing to atone for transgressions is unacceptable to Canadians.

Politics have changed in this country I don't know if Trudeau could even win now.

[capricorn]

Politics have changed in this country I don't know if Trudeau could even win now.

Well then, I guess back room Liberals are stuck in the 70s.

[Roger Steele]

Ever since Cretien left the party in the hands of Paul Martin they have bein in a whicked slide.

And the liberals that I talk too are all in some kind of "denial" or are living in a fantasy world that somehow they will be back on top.But when you ask them who will take them there and which ridings etc,etc or any details really it becomes obvious that they are counting on luck.

Now heres the thing.The liberals are now made up of well to do MP's who are there only to seize power.Once this becomes futile or a fruitless venture, being an MP will lose its appeal if there will never be an opportunity to have a seat in cabinet.

I predict a mass exodus on a biblical scale

And its only a matter of a few days before we see the polls start swinging in Ontario.When that happens many people will be turning to McGinty and pointing a finger at him and requesting he kindly put his head on the silver platter and close his eyes.

And thats where this problem for the Liberals started,in Ontario,with McGuinty.

WWWTT

I tend to agree. Perhaps Canada and the world has changed so much that we no longer need the Federal Liberal party.