Misunderstanding Seat Distribution In Polling

[nittanylionstorm07]

It is quite apparent that in this election, based on polls, people are failing to consider how the seats in Parliament are being distributed. It's clear, especially post-debate, that Harper is shoring up support in AB, SK, rural MB, and inland BC... however, these are seats that Harper ALREADY has... and there is no way he is going to take away opposition seats in MB and SK... though there is a chance at Edmonton-Strathcona which is a fairly odd seat this time around.

Harper has lost significant support in Ontario, though, and most all of his support in Quebec. This is devastating... there is no way for the Atlantic provinces to help stave this off. Liberals will sweep through Ontario, and NDP and Bloc will sweep through Quebec. Cons will be scattered in ON and all but wiped out in QC. This is devastating for Harper's chance for governing as he has to have these seats to govern.

Atlantic Canada will be better for Harper... particularly NL... but Nova Scotia will see the NDP siphon votes off of the Cons, but not enough to do much... so it will be a stalemate. PEI should be a wash, as should NB.

With the territories, Nunavut should be given to the Liberals with Okalik running, and NWT and YK should stay where they are.

Although nationally, the numbers look okay for Harper to retain minority government, when one delves deeper into the numbers by looking regionally, it is not looking good...and it is getting worse every day. Harper should be preparing for a good size loss... he'll still have a plurality of seats, but opposition parties will find newfound strength and ask to form the government.

[Harry]

Good topic for discussion - thanks.