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Bad New's For the NDP


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The person who does those projections, a professor at Wilfred Laurier University, has been accurate since 1980.

The only problem with it is that it lags somewhat behind, since it relies on ALL the major polls to make an accurate assessment. Some of these polls are at least a week old, if I'm not mistaken.

So, my guess is that, if the Liberal trend is downwards, and that of the other parties possibly upwards (although with the NDP its hard to tell, given Layton's strange behaviour as of late) those seat projections are a bit behind reality.

In other words, the Libs have less than 135, and the Tories more than 98.

At least that's my reading of this particular kind of seat projection.

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