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Posted

Mississauga South

The provincial and federal electoral record in this riding indicates that ho-hum, this year as in any other year, this is one of the strongest (Mississauga-Streetsville being the other) real or prospective Tory seat in Mississauga an eternal part of the traditional Lakeshore Road "blue belt" between Toronto and Hamilton. The western lakeshore(Mississuaga South, Oakville, Burlington) is the most affluent area outside the city lots of professional/white caller workers make there homes near the lakeshore the average income is 160000k. But mind that Marland(MPP) defeat last year; it isn't so inevitably, dependably "blue" as it used to be. Multicultural Mississauga's as left its mark here, too and as in Burlington and Oakville, even affluent red-Tory WASPS might still be willing to hold their nose and vote Liberal. (Even though Paul Szabo's probably to the right of *them*.) So, if you want *any* hope that Martin will maintain his 905-belt hold and Harper will remain too hard-right for GTA comfort keep that in mind. But if Mississuaga South goes, the "rural rump" myth of Tories in Ontario is truly busted.

Posted

Saanich-Gulf Islands (British Columbia)

The Incumbent MP Gary Lunn looks to be easily re-elected (Thank God), Jack Frazier (1993 Ref) won the riding and since 1997 Gary Lunn (originally as Ref, now as a Con) has represented the riding. This looks to be a for sure seat for the conservatives in the election. There seems to be no imminent challenge from the only potential contender Liberal candidate David Mulroney, who would more than likely take a distant second place well behind Lunn.

Even other areas around Victoria are potential wins for the Cons. Environment minister David Andersen Incumbent in the Victoria riding is finally feeling the pressure from Conservatives Logan Wenham. Also with the stupid actions of Incumbent Keith Martin (formerly of the CA and now banding with the Liberals whom he was so critical of) the Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca riding is within striking distance of Conservative candidate John Coury. I would predict that at least two of these ridings will go to the Cons. The Victoria riding is a toss up, but many people in that area believe that Andersen for some reason is a good politician, I dunno I do not get it.

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