Election

[Topaz]

I just read this article and the author seems to think that Harper maybe heading for another election this spring. Everyone keeps saying Canadians don't want one, but no one cares if Harper calls for the election, they only seem peeved if one of the opposition calls for one, why? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/winning-voters-hearts-and-minds-its-all-about-managing-the-message/article1416775/

[Smallc]

Don Newman thinks the same thing: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/12/31/f-vp-newman.html

It will have been a year and a half if there is one at that point. That's quite a while for a minority.

[ToadBrother]

I just read this article and the author seems to think that Harper maybe heading for another election this spring. Everyone keeps saying Canadians don't want one, but no one cares if Harper calls for the election, they only seem peeved if one of the opposition calls for one, why? http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/winning-voters-hearts-and-minds-its-all-about-managing-the-message/article1416775/

I don't want an election, whoever ultimately pulls the pin. But Harper is most certainly the one in the best position at the moment to benefit from a spring election. I can't imagine the Liberals or the Bloc looking with anything but dread on going to the polls in three or four months.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I don't want an election, whoever ultimately pulls the pin. But Harper is most certainly the one in the best position at the moment to benefit from a spring election. I can't imagine the Liberals or the Bloc looking with anything but dread on going to the polls in three or four months.

If those groups had at least even half a brain they would be jumping for joy. Harper gave them a Christmas present! A chance to improve their skills but more importantly its a chance to stand in the limelight. Harper has owned the bulbs for a while, this is at least a chance.

[ToadBrother]

If those groups had at least even half a brain they would be jumping for joy. Harper gave them a Christmas present! A chance to improve their skills but more importantly its a chance to stand in the limelight. Harper has owned the bulbs for a while, this is at least a chance.

Iggy, in particular, needs the time. But I think he needs more time than Harper will give him.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Iggy, in particular, needs the time. But I think he needs more time than Harper will give him.

There have been damned few that were ready before they got the job when you think about it.

[ToadBrother]

There have been damned few that were ready before they got the job when you think about it.

It's not so much being ready, as trying to fix the tactical blunders he made last summer. It's one thing to have to take on a skilled politician like Harper, quite another to half to do so while half your party is giving you the stink eye.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

It's not so much being ready, as trying to fix the tactical blunders he made last summer. It's one thing to have to take on a skilled politician like Harper, quite another to half to do so while half your party is giving you the stink eye.

When you ain't the top dog, everyone treats you like crap.....that is the truth. Win the war and you are the big cheese, until then you are just crap.

[Topaz]

MY comment about Harper calling an election, well this guy says that Harper will call an election in April and win his majority. Believe it or not? http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/ottsun/100102/canada/tories_set_for_majority__psychic

[Jerry J. Fortin]

MY comment about Harper calling an election, well this guy says that Harper will call an election in April and win his majority. Believe it or not? http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/ottsun/100102/canada/tories_set_for_majority__psychic

I don't think so. If Harper calls it, as in Iggy doesn't take the bait and vote no confidence, then I would say he would be pushing his luck to the extreme.

[capricorn]

If Harper calls it, as in Iggy doesn't take the bait and vote no confidence, then I would say he would be pushing his luck to the extreme.

I don't see Harper calling it. No matter how you slice it, he's in the driver's seat. The party is leading in the polls and the economy is in recovery, something he can claim his government engineered. And he is presiding while the Olympics play out. These are all feel-good things which may sway mainstream Canadians into maintaining the status quo. The Liberals are not in a good position due to fragile leadership and lack of a defining policy platform. It looks like their best option is to play the long game. The Liberals will have to vote no confidence sooner than later, not because they think they think they can win, but because they need the excuse of a lost election to dump Ignatieff in favour of Rae.

[Bugs]

I don't think that Harper works that way.

What he does is prepare the ground in whatever way he can. Then he announces the question, and begins to mobilize the troops, as if he fully expects an election. So far, the Liberals have been unable to avoid the bravado, and the faux outrage in which they specialize, but they have avoided pulling the plug when the moment of truth came. Which makes them seem less than serious.

In fact, I doubt if Harper does prefer an election. If his ploy works, the next thing we know, the Liberals will be congratulating themselves on not falling into the trap of causing an election. He prevails through a feint.

I can only speculate. In March, there'll be a speech from the Throne that leads us towards austerity. The size of government will be tackled as a problem. The goal will be to bring the deficit in line without (a) raising taxes. or ( increasing the debt unduly. Look for frozen wages in the public sector, and perhaps the elimination of some marginal programs. The opposition parties will have to decide -- if they take the government down, can they win the election election?

In the end, that's what it comes down to.

This will be a watershed moment. Harper is prepared for either decision, but the question he puts to the House is entirely proper. It's not 'bullying' and it's not 'arrogant'. It's one of only two ways there is for a minority government to work. The other is a coalition government, which isn't a possibility for Harper. At that time, however, he is willing to use patronage to secure short-term support, to which the Bloc is vulnerable.

If the Liberals collaborate with the Conservatives in disassembling of the welfare state, in any degree, Bob Rae will become restive. If they abandon the project they have relied upon since before Trudeau, it will open floodgates. The end of this process will pit all those who are in any way 'dependents' of the state, against all of those who work outside, in the 'private sector', but we're not there yet.

If the Liberals stand up and say "No", they will go into the election defending higher deficits and taxes, at least somewhere down the road. I would imagine the Conservatives will already have the footage the will want to use if that happens.

This is where Harper gets his reputation for strategy. He puts a lot of pressure on his opponents. He leaves them in the 'left' position, and takes the 'center'. (The 'right' wait patiently for majority government. In the meantime, they are shut out.) So far, the opposition have competed with each other to be the most outraged, the most extreme in their verbal opposition to the Conservatives ... and then, they seem surprised when the polls move to suggest the public doesn't want an election.

Will Harper change something that has worked so well in the past? I doubt it.

Its in the Liberal's hands, whether there's going to be an election or not.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Bugs

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I don't think that Harper works that way.

What he does is prepare the ground in whatever way he can. Then he announces the question, and begins to mobilize the troops, as if he fully expects an election. So far, the Liberals have been unable to avoid the bravado, and the faux outrage in which they specialize, but they have avoided pulling the plug when the moment of truth came. Which makes them seem less than serious.

In fact, I doubt if Harper does prefer an election. If his ploy works, the next thing we know, the Liberals will be congratulating themselves on not falling into the trap of causing an election. He prevails through a feint.

I can only speculate. In March, there'll be a speech from the Throne that leads us towards austerity. The size of government will be tackled as a problem. The goal will be to bring the deficit in line without (a) raising taxes. or ( increasing the debt unduly. Look for frozen wages in the public sector, and perhaps the elimination of some marginal programs. The opposition parties will have to decide -- if they take the government down, can they win the election election?

In the end, that's what it comes down to.

This will be a watershed moment. Harper is prepared for either decision, but the question he puts to the House is entirely proper. It's not 'bullying' and it's not 'arrogant'. It's one of only two ways there is for a minority government to work. The other is a coalition government, which isn't a possibility for Harper. At that time, however, he is willing to use patronage to secure short-term support, to which the Bloc is vulnerable.

If the Liberals collaborate with the Conservatives in disassembling of the welfare state, in any degree, Bob Rae will become restive. If they abandon the project they have relied upon since before Trudeau, it will open floodgates. The end of this process will pit all those who are in any way 'dependents' of the state, against all of those who work outside, in the 'private sector', but we're not there yet.

If the Liberals stand up and say "No", they will go into the election defending higher deficits and taxes, at least somewhere down the road. I would imagine the Conservatives will already have the footage the will want to use if that happens.

This is where Harper gets his reputation for strategy. He puts a lot of pressure on his opponents. He leaves them in the 'left' position, and takes the 'center'. (The 'right' wait patiently for majority government. In the meantime, they are shut out.) So far, the opposition have competed with each other to be the most outraged, the most extreme in their verbal opposition to the Conservatives ... and then, they seem surprised when the polls move to suggest the public doesn't want an election.

Will Harper change something that has worked so well in the past? I doubt it.

Its in the Liberal's hands, whether there's going to be an election or not.

Sadly its all true, well said.

There is only one way to deal with Harper, and I am not sure that the folks in opposition want to handle Harper at all. Cowards is what they are.

[madmax]

I don't think that Harper works that way.

What he does is prepare the ground in whatever way he can. Then he announces the question, and begins to mobilize the troops, as if he fully expects an election.

<SNIP>

Will Harper change something that has worked so well in the past? I doubt it.

Its in the Liberal's hands, whether there's going to be an election or not.

Your best post by far.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Your best post by far.

It was wasn't it!