Unofficial Poll Results - 12 CALGARY-GLENMORE

[jdobbin]

Polls results are just coming in now.

Really too early to tell what is happening.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/12.htm

[jdobbin]

It looks the Wildrose Alliance Party first with the Liberals second.

[madmax]

It looks the Wildrose Alliance Party first with the Liberals second.

What caused this By Election?

What's the message in the selection?

http://www.edmontonsun.com/news/alberta/20...5/10908001.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calgary-Glenmore

Edited September 15, 2009 by madmax

[Wild Bill]

It looks the Wildrose Alliance Party first with the Liberals second.

This would seem to confirm one of my own pet premises, that a very significant number of voters find themselves without a good 'fit' with their traditional parties and if ever they DO get offered an alternative they can bail on their 'least smelly' choice in droves!

It doesn't matter if pundits feel they are persuing a wrong choice or some "evil, reptilian kitten-eating right wing choice", the plain fact is that they ARE! If the traditional parties want to compete they have to deal with it.

Obviously, the provincial Tories in Alberta did not enjoy ENTHUSIASTIC support in this byelection. If they had of been a truly popular choice the WAP would not have won the seat.

The next Alberta provincial election should be even more interesting. Incumbent institutions, which of course includes political parties, tend to be very slow at addressing change.

I think Stelmach and the Alberta Tories are in deep trouble!

[madmax]

I think Stelmach and the Alberta Tories are in deep trouble!

that is typical in a Province that is still driven by populism. Alberta rides a pony for decades, then its a wholesale housecleaning.

[jdobbin]

that is typical in a Province that is still driven by populism. Alberta rides a pony for decades, then its a wholesale housecleaning.

Don't know that a byelection always tells the full story.

The provincial Liberals there have won a few byelections over the years only to lose some of them in the general election.

A few analysts after yesterday say it is policy that caused the backlash.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Byelecti...5031/story.html

Byelections rarely portend general trouble for the Tories, but this is the one result that could seriously jolt them.

Hinman's victory shows the political danger of Stelmach's free-spending policy during the recession.

With the deficit set to hit $6.9 billion, even as the government begins serious cuts, the Tories now face discontent from both the left and right.

[Wild Bill]

Don't know that a byelection always tells the full story.

The provincial Liberals there have won a few byelections over the years only to lose some of them in the general election.

A few analysts after yesterday say it is policy that caused the backlash.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Byelecti...5031/story.html

Byelections rarely portend general trouble for the Tories, but this is the one result that could seriously jolt them.

Don't forget jdobbin that this was a long time Tory seat, which makes the upset even more significant. It would not be logical to treat this riding as an isolated incident.

I firmly believe that when you paint yourself 'beige' to appeal to the middle you can easily disappoint those on either side. This is not a strategic failure only if there are no alternative choices. Those that are bored with a middle of the road approach only become more frustrated and apathetic as the years drag on.

I also believe this is a factor in the decreasing percentage of those who actually vote. When everyone wears a brown suit who stands out?

[jdobbin]

Don't forget jdobbin that this was a long time Tory seat, which makes the upset even more significant. It would not be logical to treat this riding as an isolated incident.

When the Liberals won Klein's seat, I didn't think it would be logical to assume it meant a major change right off the hop.

I firmly believe that when you paint yourself 'beige' to appeal to the middle you can easily disappoint those on either side. This is not a strategic failure only if there are no alternative choices. Those that are bored with a middle of the road approach only become more frustrated and apathetic as the years drag on.

I also believe this is a factor in the decreasing percentage of those who actually vote. When everyone wears a brown suit who stands out?

Not sure if the PCs will let themselves go down. I can see the re-inventing themselves once again to capture the vote. They have done it before.

[fellowtraveller]

much ado about nothing, really. Byeelections have never meant much.

Stelmach will win back many rightish hearts and minds by chopping and whacking costs, starting with the civil service.

Yes, jdobbin I do recall you claiming this was impossible and I will be sure to remind you again when the cuts are announced.

[jdobbin]

Yes, jdobbin I do recall you claiming this was impossible and I will be sure to remind you again when the cuts are announced.

Don't recall ever saying that about Alberta. Think I have been pretty consistent that the Tories would keep winning long after I'm dead in all likelihood.

I've also said that when times are good the Tories are chronic overspenders.

Even in this thread though I mention that the Tories re-invent themselves so I expect they will indeed cut. However, the thing that helps the province each time is oil royalties and tax receipts from the work and workers it brings.

[geoffrey]

Seriously jdobbin, frustration with the Tories out here is reaching a peak. Even I have grown completely tired of their same excuses. Under Stelmach, our province has declined sharply. He enacted punishing oil and gas royalties which pushed investment to Saskatchewan and BC. We are now closing 350 emergency room beds this month to save money.

Things aren't good for the Tories. They are taking the wrong side of every issue, then switching back and forth. They are ship lost at sea. Further, they have taken an arrogant stance towards the media and the people of Alberta. Just watch some clips on YouTube of Health Minister Liepert:

It's time for some new vision out here. The Tories seem unwilling to do anything. I will be supporting the Wildrose Alliance next election, I have even taken out a membership. I am no longer interested in having this group of arrogant incompetents running my province.

In the couple short years that Stelmach has had power, this province has declined rapidly. We actually do have children being treated in tents at hospitals, 12-18 hour waits in emergency rooms, women having miscarriages in public because no rooms are available, etc. etc. Our health system is an absolute disaster. DISASTER. We are quickly becoming a third world health care region. I am thinking of leaving this province (and probably the country) as a result of how mismanaged this place is. Not just health care but taxes, business, land use, etc.

[punked]

Seriously jdobbin, frustration with the Tories out here is reaching a peak. Even I have grown completely tired of their same excuses. Under Stelmach, our province has declined sharply. He enacted punishing oil and gas royalties which pushed investment to Saskatchewan and BC. We are now closing 350 emergency room beds this month to save money.

Things aren't good for the Tories. They are taking the wrong side of every issue, then switching back and forth. They are ship lost at sea. Further, they have taken an arrogant stance towards the media and the people of Alberta. Just watch some clips on YouTube of Health Minister Liepert:

It's time for some new vision out here. The Tories seem unwilling to do anything. I will be supporting the Wildrose Alliance next election, I have even taken out a membership. I am no longer interested in having this group of arrogant incompetents running my province.

In the couple short years that Stelmach has had power, this province has declined rapidly. We actually do have children being treated in tents at hospitals, 12-18 hour waits in emergency rooms, women having miscarriages in public because no rooms are available, etc. etc. Our health system is an absolute disaster. DISASTER. We are quickly becoming a third world health care region. I am thinking of leaving this province (and probably the country) as a result of how mismanaged this place is. Not just health care but taxes, business, land use, etc.

Pretty sure it was Klein who made the health care cuts.

[geoffrey]

He did to get things back on track, but then restored funding and starting adding rooms again. Now, Stelmach is closing them down. Things were getting better. Not any more.

[jdobbin]

Seriously jdobbin, frustration with the Tories out here is reaching a peak. Even I have grown completely tired of their same excuses. Under Stelmach, our province has declined sharply. He enacted punishing oil and gas royalties which pushed investment to Saskatchewan and BC. We are now closing 350 emergency room beds this month to save money.

I haven't seen the latest polls but usually when things go bad for the PCs, they make a leadership changed and are bailed out by a recovery.

A little harder this time with oil at $69 a barrel though.

Things aren't good for the Tories. They are taking the wrong side of every issue, then switching back and forth. They are ship lost at sea. Further, they have taken an arrogant stance towards the media and the people of Alberta. Just watch some clips on YouTube of Health Minister Liepert:

Not exactly a winning way.

It's time for some new vision out here. The Tories seem unwilling to do anything. I will be supporting the Wildrose Alliance next election, I have even taken out a membership. I am no longer interested in having this group of arrogant incompetents running my province.

I don't know too much about them other than some sketchy reports. I don't know too much about what their attitude is and what the word on the street is.

In the couple short years that Stelmach has had power, this province has declined rapidly. We actually do have children being treated in tents at hospitals, 12-18 hour waits in emergency rooms, women having miscarriages in public because no rooms are available, etc. etc. Our health system is an absolute disaster. DISASTER. We are quickly becoming a third world health care region. I am thinking of leaving this province (and probably the country) as a result of how mismanaged this place is. Not just health care but taxes, business, land use, etc.

I wonder how much this has to do with one member, one vote.

The NDP abandoned it in Manitoba because it is too easily hijacked.

[Alta4ever]

The NDP abandoned it in Manitoba because it is too easily hijacked.

Nothing wrong with one member one vote, but you should have a waiting period before you get full voting rights in the party. Not what the PC's did line one buy a membership line two vote for party leader.

[fellowtraveller]

Don't recall ever saying that about Alberta. Think I have been pretty consistent that the Tories would keep winning long after I'm dead in all likelihood.

I've also said that when times are good the Tories are chronic overspenders.

Even in this thread though I mention that the Tories re-invent themselves so I expect they will indeed cut. However, the thing that helps the province each time is oil royalties and tax receipts from the work and workers it brings.

So now you are claiming you never said the AB govt would not cut the civil service, and are now predicting it will?

Wow.

And all in apparent sincerity.

I hope that your professional life has nothing to do with recording or editing history.

And by the way, before you mention it again for the third time, the biggest hydrocarbon contributor to the AB bottom line is not oil, it is natural gas. Oil may be at some point in the future but it is not now.

And natural gas is in trouble.

[Alta4ever]

So now you are claiming you never said the AB govt would not cut the civil service, and are now predicting it will?

Wow.

And all in apparent sincerity.

I hope that your professional life has nothing to do with recording or editing history.

And by the way, before you mention it again for the third time, the biggest hydrocarbon contributor to the AB bottom line is not oil, it is natural gas. Oil may be at some point in the future but it is not now.

And natural gas is in trouble.

what do you expect from a liberal who thinks they know your back yard better then you do.

[jdobbin]

So now you are claiming you never said the AB govt would not cut the civil service, and are now predicting it will?

Wow.

And all in apparent sincerity.

I hope that your professional life has nothing to do with recording or editing history.

You would have to show me where I said that and in what context. I have said that Klein certainly made cuts. I saw no evidence that Stelmach would cut and said so. He seemed to be hoping for a quick recovery to prevent that from happening. Or am I wrong in saying that?

I've had this argument with you before that Alberta seemed to have a spending problem and for a long time they showed no restraint at all.

I hope your professional life isn't rife with the angry responses we see here time and time again.

And by the way, before you mention it again for the third time, the biggest hydrocarbon contributor to the AB bottom line is not oil, it is natural gas. Oil may be at some point in the future but it is not now.

And natural gas is in trouble.

Think I have said in the past that oil is responsible for many jobs and corporate investment which helped bring in people and revenue. I have also said that resource based royalties which really took off with natural gas are the way the province saw huge surpluses occur.

[jdobbin]

what do you expect from a liberal who thinks they know your back yard better then you do.

Of course, I don't know the local issues with the detail of someone who lives there. Think I made that statement here already.

However, I do know what has been reported nationally about Stelmach and his spending and showing no restraint.

We also know in Canada that Alberta has been able to attract major investment and workers from all over Canada that has helped bring in corporate receipts and boosted the revenue from provincial income taxes. I have also mentioned resources revenues have helped pushed Alberta to large surpluses. I wasn't singling out oil for how much royalties it brings in. I have said gas was the major factor.

Your snide remarks aside, everything I've said is what has been talked about here before.

Edited September 17, 2009 by jdobbin