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Russia and China have been relatively friendly with each other for quite some time now. This is hardly some novel or unusual development. I anticipate that precisely nothing will change in the region as a result of "Peace Mission 2009".

Posted
Russia and China have been relatively friendly with each other for quite some time now. This is hardly some novel or unusual development. I anticipate that precisely nothing will change in the region as a result of "Peace Mission 2009".
Russia does not have the people to keep control of its resource rich far east. China does. China will effectively annex most of this Russian terrority over the next 50 years. The only question is if this will happen by stealth via investments and 'guest worker' programs or directly via an invasion. I suspect the former because Russia will bend over trying to keep China happy so it save face and retain nominal sovereignty over the region.

To fly a plane, you need both a left wing and a right wing.

Posted
Russia does not have the people to keep control of its resource rich far east. China does. China will effectively annex most of this Russian terrority over the next 50 years. The only question is if this will happen by stealth via investments and 'guest worker' programs or directly via an invasion.

Quite possible that it would happen, though certainly not through invasion. Russia's military is certainly capable of defending its territory, given that Russia would not long hesitate before using nukes if a serious invasion of its home soil was attempted by a major power. Its military technology remains second only to the US, as well, and they may even be capable of winning a conventional war against China despite being outnumbered.

But a long pattern of immigration and demographic change, leading to ever greater Chinese influence is certainly possible, just as such change is already taking place in many western nations. However Russians have never bought into the ideas of multiculturalism and tolerance; thinking in terms of race is still very much a part of Russian culture, and certainly not taboo as it is here. I suspect they would rapidly develop an allergic reaction if they felt that their preeminence within Russia was being displaced by a growing Chinese (or any other) demographic. They would then quite possibly act in ways to reverse the situation, possibly including genocide. Russian leaders have not been shy about killing those parts of the population they disliked for whatever reason, and they retain the power to do so to this day, despite the nominal "democracy" that is now operating there.

However all this is far future speculation on rather unlikely scenarios. For the moment, Russia and China are friends, and it suits both of them well, as they work together to hamper whatever the US is trying to do around the world. If ever they have time to turn against each other, it will be because the US is already out of the way... and if that is the case, the world will already be a very different place.

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