Leger Poll

[BigGunner]

National..

(change from previous Leger Poll)

Liberals 38% (drop of 11 points)

CPC 26% (gain of 5 points)

NDP 16% (gain of 1 point)

BQ 13% (gain of 2 points)

Moral of the story...

Liberals have lost slightly. Election 2000 gave them 41%, now 38%

Conservative have not benifited from it. Alliance vote in 2000 was 25.5%, now it is at 26%.

NDP is up significantly from last election. Election 2000 scored a whopping 8.5%, now its nearly double.

BQ will continue to be a pain in the ass for the Liberals in Quebec. Up slightly from 10.7% to 13%.

Summary...

If this poll is accurate, it points to a Liberal minority.

Liberals will lose seats to the conservatives in Ontario, parts of the Maritimes. Liberals will lose a couple to a strengthened BQ.

Conservatives might gain in Ontario, but will lose in the west. The Alliance won BC with almost 50% of the vote in 2000, but the CPC only has 26% (feb poll).

NDP has recovered in the west and will retake traditional NDP seats, and will gain in parts of Ontario too. NDP will keep its maritime seats.

[maplesyrup]

more analysis:

COMPANY DATE LIB CPC* NDP BLO

LEGER 03/04 38 26 16 13

LEGER 01/04 49 21 15 11

LEGER 06/03 55 26 10 8

LEGER 06/02 41 33 9 10

LEGER 05/01 49 27 9 10

LEGER 06/00 44 32 10 11

*combined PC & ALL

The sample size was 1,500 taken Marc 19-22/04

This sample size is 50% more than the recent Ipsos-Reid.

The results show:

Liberals down 6%

Conservatives down 6%

NDP up 6%

Bloc up 2%

So the right wing parties are down, and the left wing parties are up.

What must be discouraging for the governing Liberals is the Bloc strength.

Source:

Landscape of Federal Politics