Despite strong personal approval rating for Harper as PM, his CONserva

February 14, 2008

Political parties stuck in neutral

Public satisfied with Harper as PM. Support for Conservatives and Liberals same as after 2006 election, poll shows

PHILIP AUTHIER, The Gazette

Published: 48 minutes ago

Despite the buzz out of Ottawa about a possible spring election, Canada's major political parties have barely budged in public opinion since the 2006 election that produced a minority Tory government, a new poll says.

But satisfaction in Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government remains high - 55 per cent across the country - while Liberal leader Stéphane Dion is at the bottom of the pack when Canadians are asked who would be the best prime minister.

Conducted from Feb. 5-10 for The Gazette and Le Devoir, the Léger Marketing poll reveals the Conservatives nationally lead the Liberals by five percentage points in public opinion.

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Font:****Had an election been called in that time frame, the Conservatives would have earned 37 per cent of votes compared with 32 per cent for the Liberals, 16 per cent for the New Democrats and seven per cent for the Green Party. The numbers are similar to those of the 2006 general election, said Léger research vice-president Christian Bourque.

"It's (party standing) been essentially flat for the last six to eight months," Bourque said.

There are, however, changes on a region to region basis. While the poll shows the Conservatives bolstering their national numbers with their powerhouse western support, they have slipped in Quebec and Ontario.

There the Liberals under Dion have crept up - leading the Tories by six percentage points in Quebec and 10 in Ontario.

The Conservatives are now third in public opinion in Quebec with a score of 21 per cent. First overall is the Bloc Québécois at 35 per cent of support, followed by the Liberals in second place with 27 per cent. Fourth is the NDP with 11 per cent and the Greens at six per cent. The Liberals, however, are hampered because their vote is clustered in Montreal, allowing the Bloc to consistently win more seats province-wide.

The Quebec numbers suggest that while the Bloc's support is solid, the federalist vote is mobile and willing to dabble with different options, Bourque said.

The Liberals also lead the Conservatives in Ontario, where they have 42 per cent of the vote. The Tories are second with 32, trailed by the NDP with 18 per cent and the Greens with eight.

Bourque said with numbers like these, an election would have produced another minority government in Ottawa, but owing to improvements in the Liberal vote in Quebec and Ontario, the Conservatives have no guarantee they will form it. Over the last few weeks, the Conservatives have set in motion various confident votes that, in theory, could spark an election.

"My impression is there remains closet issues with the Conservatives in central Canada," Bourque said. "This whole, 'hidden agenda,' theme still causes some fear."

But Canadians nevertheless feel the Harper government is doing a good job. A majority say they are very or somewhat satisfied with the government.

Harper leads when Canadians are asked who would be the best prime minister. Nationally, Harper's score is 32 per cent, compared with NDP leader Jack Layton at 18 per cent. Dion sits at 15.

Léger polled 1,500 Canadians coast-to-coast from Feb. 5-10. With a sample this size, the margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Does this show that no matter how good a CONservative leader is, they will only be stuck to a minority status at best? Awww, poor CONs. Its unfortunate that they can't be banned as a party for their war crimes in Afghanistan and their criminal ignorance of climate change.

Wild Bill · February 15, 2008

Does this show that no matter how good a CONservative leader is, they will only be stuck to a minority status at best? Awww, poor CONs. Its unfortunate that they can't be banned as a party for their war crimes in Afghanistan and their criminal ignorance of climate change.

Well, if that is what this poll shows it will be the first time ever a poll has done so!

Polls are snapshots at any given point in time. They ALWAYS change the moment an election is called! Ask the NDP. They always show higher in polls until people have to actually get serious about voting for them.

Right now Canadians couldn't care less about another election. Polls show how they feel when they have the luxury of staying "theoretical". When the election writ is dropped suddenly they have to decide if even though they are not happy about this or that with the Harper Tories can they instead bring themselves to vote for Dion? In Quebec, have they totally forgotten about Adscam?

The fact that the polls show that Dion is rock bottom as a choice for PM is very telling.

We Canadians NEVER get to vote for someone that has our total approval! It's always a question of who smells the least. We also never get a clear cut choice. We have to weigh an entire package. We don't get to pick our hamburger toppings. The parties deck their burgers in only one style and we have to decide what we can live with.

Voters will have to decide if the fact that they aren't totally thrilled with Harper's policies re Afghanistan are enough to stomach having Dion as PM.

Obviously, the Tories think that for most folks it'll be just too much to swallow. It should be an interesting vote.

oreodontist · February 15, 2008

I don't mind Harper but I won't vote Conservative. I knew him a bit before he was high profile and he's a decent fellow. Dion is ok but a bit understated. Layton? Don't know if he's real behind the slick smile.

Right now the balance is fine. A minority government with a responsible leader who doesn't have to pander to the right of the party because of the need for support of one of the parties to the left. Sure beats the situation under Chretien or Mul-crooky. All of Canada is more listened to in a minority government.

wild bill: "Voters will have to decide if the fact that they aren't totally thrilled with Harper's policies re Afghanistan are enough to stomach having Dion as PM."

The numbers weren't much different a year ago when the Afghan issue wasn't high profile. I don't know if Afghan policy breaks many voters one way or the other. Folks are always saying "I'll never vote for party 'x'" because of some issue. I do it myself a couple times a year and then get equally mad at the other party and say the same. Last year I said I won't vote Green because of an alliance with the Liberals, won't vote Liberal because of empty Kyoto whining, won't vote Con because of Afghanistan. I'll end up puting a sign on the lawn and voting for one of those three.

Edited February 15, 2008 by oreodontist

capricorn · February 15, 2008

I don't mind Harper but I won't vote Conservative.

oreo, you contradict yourself in the last sentence of your post where you say; "I'll end up puting (sic) a sign on the lawn and voting for one of those three".

Mul-crooky.

Such references to third parties are against MLW forum rules.

The numbers weren't much different a year ago when the Afghan issue wasn't high profile.

Polls are all over the place and it's hard to make out which are closer to the mark. The way things are going, it looks like the economy will trump the Afghan war in the coming months.

Welcome to the forum oreo.

Topaz · February 15, 2008

I think more Canadian should watch Question Period so they could get a better idea what these guys and gals are all about. Canadian can always find out what the seating government has done that isn't so good for Canadians. I still don't understand how the Finance Minister can break the rules that the Conservative set in place and not have to obey it. They admit of doing it and then say it won't happen again, mean while some friend of the Finance minister walks away with $122,000 for writing the minister speech when the limit is 25,000!