I think the threat of war on Iran (Iraq II) is not real, because there is a big difference the two countries. 95 % of the Iranians hate the regime and a strong organized opposition, exists inside and outside the country. Actually as an appeasement policy during the Clinton administration, State Department put the Iranian opposition, PMOI and the National Council of Resistance of Iran in the list of terrorist organizations to start negotiations with Rafsanjani.
If bush is real about making a move on Iran, it is only logical that his first act be working with the opposition. This would shake the Ayatollahs the most. Bush has mentioned the Iranian people factor in several speeches but has not clarified how and what yet.
