It is now clear that the BQ will hold the balance of power in the next parliament. With the swing in support for the BQ and the decline of the Liberal vote to only the non-French areas of Montreal and western Quebec, I expect the BQ to win 55 or more ridings in the election on June 28th.
The support of the Conservative party in the rest of Canada will assure them a strong position in the next parliament and may even put them into government, with the help of the BQ. AS an outsider looking at the race in English Canada, I can say that I am very surprise of the way the Conservative campaign and Harper have run in this election and I think they will do very well, more then anyone would have expected. Major inroads into Ontario can be expected. I would not be surprise, if there vote in Quebec to 20% which is not a very outside possibility.
The NDP vote percentage will go up, but I do not see that translating into seats. The highest I think they will go is 25. The reason for this is that there voters are not committed to the party and will likely vote for the Liberals out of fear of the Conservatives. I predict this will not work, those who vote out of fear mostly will get what they did not want. All you have to look at for this type of scenario is the 1999 Ontario election, which NDP benefit the Conservatives by decreasing the NDP vote in the cities were most NDP support is.
There will be no inroads for the NDP into Quebec, because the party as always been perceived as anti-Quebec rights and more likely to take power away from Quebec to give to Ottawa. The NDP vote in Quebec is only concentrated in Liberal ridings on the Island of Montreal and non-French areas of Quebec. Places were only the Liberals can win. Also there will never be any type of arraignment between the BQ and the NDP, the parties are very different. The NDP wants to expand the power of Ottawa in Quebec, while the BQ wants to get rid of it. This is the central and main differences between the too. Also the BQ will never actively work with or form a coalition with the Liberals. That will never happen. To say it would is fantasy clear and simple. The BQ hates the Liberals Dion, Charest, and Lapierre and the things they have down to Quebec, especially after the sponsorship scandal.
The only party that the BQ can support from the outside is the Conservatives party; they are the most likely to support the rights of Quebec and to give more power and authority to Quebec more then any other party, if an agreement can be made. The BQ holding the balance of power will check the Conservatives when its concerns social problems such as abortions and gay marriage etec, but beyond the BQ can work with the Conservatives to reform the countries government, give more rights and authority to the provinces and get down to the truth in the Sponsorship scandal and finally find out what the Liberals have been going with Quebec’s money and for the last 11 years.
I look forward to it.