Machjo

Unfortunately Canada has too many vested interests in the agricultural and telecommunications and transportation cartels. However, Trump's strong-arm tactics are only going to make matters worse. One thing I'd considered was what would happen if a PTSAR (Party for a Toronto Special Administrative Region) rose up at the Federal level proposing that Quebec become a Free Economic Zone economically and a Special Administrative Region politically freed from the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms but with the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights entrenched into its Basic Law similarly to how Hong Kong is run as a quasi-sovereign region of China. Toronto would become a quasi-sovereign region of Canada free to adopt unilateral free trade with the world. Canada would still want to sell Toronto its food and while the US might still maintain some protectionism, it might be wiling to unilaterally at least lower its tariffs against TSAR in voluntary reciprocity. This could benefit Toronto SAR. Maybe Montreal, Vancouver, and Richmond would establish their own parties too. Imagine if in the next Federal election, the Party for a Toronto Special Administrative Region (TSAR) ran a candidate in each Toronto riding and a similar party ran candidates across Montreal and another in Vancouver and another in Richmond. These parties' MPs would soon become allies in Parliament and could hold at least some economic clout.

English is not an easy language to learn. According to one OECD study, English orthography takes around three times as much time to learn as Finnish, German, or Greek orthography and it takes from five to ten times as much time to learn English as it does the equivalent amount of Esperanto. English grammar also tends to be more ambiguous than French or Esperanto grammar. According to various studies, only around 6% in Germany and 4% in India actually learn English well enough for it to be of any practical use to them. In Quebec, you can find people who aren't functional in English even in the outskirts of Gatineau which is practically right next to Ottawa.

Agreed. The greatest trade barrier between Ontario and Quebec is the language barrier.

The US does not practice unilateral free trade except towards a few developing economies. All of the US' free trade with other developed economies is agreement-based, not unilateral. And even then, it's quite protectionist especially in the agricultural sector when it comes to subsidies for example. If you're comparing the US to Canada, then yes, the US (Trump and his supporters excepted) has embraced free trade far more than Canada has and Canada could learn from them. Trump could learn even more from them.

True. But if a country is too busy defending agricultural tariffs and subsidies for example, then the negotiators are left with little time to negotiate non-tariff barriers and subsidies. If Canada unilaterally drops all tariffs and subsidies, then in future trade agreements, its negotiators can cut straight to the chase in non-tariff barriers.

You'll obviously need a new president before that happens obviously. Unfortunately, we'd need a new PM too. And even more unfortunately, it would have to be someone other than one of our present major party leaders. But yes, I hope Canada just adopts unilateral free trade and let the US tariff us to its heart's content. It might be painful initially. But once our economy would have adapted to it, it would then be more difficult for the US to try to hurt our economy with tariffs later.

True. One advantage with unilateral free trade would be that Canada could diversify its markets at least somewhat more than it has so far. Also, it doesn't have to be all or nothing. Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand have adopted unilateral free trade yet still participate in multilateral trade agreements. It's just that the dynamics of the negotiations are different. for example, when Canada negotiates with another country, it might talk about Canada dropping tariffs on X if the other country drops tariffs on Y. Hong Kong and Singapore can say 'we've already dropped all intentional trade barriers against you, so what can you do in reciprocation?'. Hong Kong and Singapore can also more quickly bypass discussions on tariffs and other intentional trade barriers in trade negotiations and just jump instead to discussing unintentional trade barriers like incompatible product or service standards for example. Should Canada adopt unilateral free trade, it could still participate in trade negotiations with other jurisdictions around the world but would just now be in a position to jump straight to negotiating how to remove unintentional trade barriers.

Well the US is our biggest trading partner and probably would remain so even if Canada adopted unilateral free trade with the world.

I do support unilateral free trade independently of this trade spat. And I'm still not convinced that Americans in general are that malevolent. I suppose I could see US governments raising tariffs whenever they have a trade deficit with Canada and then dropping them once trade is balanced again. Canada would just need to keep its cool at those times and let the US do what it wants Since we'd have no trade agreement but just unilateral free trade, there would no contract for the US to respect. Trump and his supporters are the problem, not the US people.

How would unilateral free trade be too US-centric? It just involves Canada unilaterally dropping all intentional trade barriers against the rest of the world with no expectation of reciprocity. Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand have done so and look at their economies today. I suspect too that most US residents are more rational and fair-minded than their president. With that, I'm confident that if Canada adopted unilateral free trade, many in the US congress might choose to unilaterally reciprocate at least in part without any formal agreement.

They wouldn't need to. Even without reciprocity from the rest of the world, unilateral free trade on Canada's part would make imports less expensive. When we think of imports, we often mistakenly think of end-consumer products only. What we often forget is that manufacturers import too. They import parts, tools, machinery, software, etc. etc. etc. Unilateral free trade would give our manufacturers cheaper access to these and so allow them to produce more cheaply too. Of course without a trade agreement, a protectionist US president could react to this trade advantage of Canada's by just raising tariffs against Canada. This however would make it more expensive for US factories to import the tools, machinery, parts, etc from around the world to make them more efficient. Canada would hurt, and hurt a lot no doubt. But once Canada eventually adapts to unilateral free trade, it would then become more difficult for other countries to hurt it later on.

It's still slightly different though since Canada would go beyond the WTO rules to essentially unilaterally drop all trade barriers to the world. Of course this would mean Canada needing to abandon its sacred cows.

They have failed. Unfortunately, Scheer threw Bernier under the bus too. So at least on that front, all of the leaders across party lines are united.

That's why I've proposed unilateral free trade with the world. That way, without needing to actually negotiate an agreement, Canadian consumers could still access US products and services. Should the US raise tariffs on all Canadian products, that would just push the CAD down relative to the USD until an equilibrium is reached at which point we could start to export to the US again while Canadians would just buy less from the US. We'd hurt, but we would adapt eventually and would not need an actual agreement with the US.

Maybe not, but that's obviously how the major parties and Canadians are interpreting it, rightly or wrongly. If it's a misunderstanding, then Trump has obviously failed miserably to communicate his real intentions.

In Canada, there is a legitimate fear. I support unilateral free-trade (not to be confused with multilateral or even bilateral free trade), but on the principle of good will. Trump has no good will as proved by his belligerence. This raises the question of if we give in to one demand, will he just make another and another and another? That's one thing I would like about unilateral free trade: we could unilaterally drop our tariffs to the world and then show Trump the proverbial finger. No trade agreement with that fool, just unilateral free trade with the world. With multilateral or even bilateral free trade, we'd never get anywhere since each time we'd give an inch he'd ask for another mile. He will always push and push and push until his demands become intolerable to any reasonable person. He's just not the kind of person worth wasting Canada's time and energy to negotiate with. That's why I like the idea of unilateral free trade and then letting Trump do whatever the hell he wants to do. We don't need an agreement with you. You go your way and we go ours.

Even Andrew Scheer has expressed his support for the retaliatory tariffs. So unless the Conservative Party's position changes, the three main parties may very well be on the same page on this issue. So it's not just about Trudeau anymore. As for Trudeau, I disliked his big spending, but this is not about that. And unfortunately, it's not all about economics. When a country humiliates another, the other will react emotionally rather than rationally. Think about it. Canada's reaction to Trump is quite irrational economically and all three major parties are on board with this and have popular support. When people are angry, they are prepared to take the pain, take the beating, and bite the bullet for the sake of national dignity. Psychology absolutely plays a major in all of this.

I'll take a more basic example. Imagine a high-school bully beating up a weaker kid in the school yard. He might be stronger and might win the fight. But other kids in the yard will notice it, fear him, and so distance themselves from him and interact with one another instead. Trump promoting fear of the US does not help the US in the long run. Maybe in the short term, but not in the long term.

I agree with the economics of what you're saying. Canada's protectionism hurts Canadian consumers more than it hurts anyone else. In fact, one part of me would love to see Trump apply so much pressure on Canada as to destroy Canada's agricultural cartel. But that's only on the economic front. On the psychological front, Trump will feed anti-US sentiment for at least a few decades until it heels. In the mean time, maybe even for the next few decades, the US could find itself in a far more ineffective NATO as a result of hard feelings. For at least the next few decades, the US might find other countries more willing to play hard ball with it in trade negotiations while being more willing to lower barriers between each other. This could isolate the US relatively speaking for the next few decades. Trump does not understand human psychology. He does not understand how a person or a nation reacts to public humiliation. People and nations will react to save face, and not always in a healthy manner.

Good point there. By saving face, I meant refraining from imposing retaliatory tariffs and still promoting freer trade between the US and Canada without appearing to have fallen to Trump in battle.

Of course Canada could still respect UN sanctions against certain states, ban the importation of products the manufacture of which it bans on its own soil, and impose the same standards on imports as it does on domestically-produced goods. Beyond that, I do think Canada could only benefit from unilateral free trade with the world.

Your last sentence brings up a valid point. Maybe a future Canadian Prime Minister will become more aggressively pro-free-trade with the rest of the world and might even be willing to at least start to lower trade tariffs in the agricultural sector. In my ideal world, it would even declare unilateral free trade with the world, though I won't hold my breath on that. But yes, it might galvanize future Canadian Parliaments to negotiate free trade with other states around the world far more aggressively than it has in the past. sadly though, it might become more hesitant to drop tariffs against the US. But hey, lower tariffs with any country would be an improvement.

You have more to lose than you realize, and so do we. I'm very pro-free-trade but I can tell you that Trump's behaviour is actually galvanizing Canadians (and even the Conservative Party) to dig in its heels. You are right that Canada will hurt ten times more than the US. If the US really applies pressure, Canada might raise the white flag of defeat and drop its agricultural tariffs under pressure. I would favour Canada to voluntarily and willingly drop those tariffs over time through gentle persuasion and not through national humiliation on the world stage. Even if Trump succeeds in finally forcing Canada to open up its agricultural market, he will also galvanize Canadian voters to elect more anti-US politicians for decades to come. He might win on the trade front, but then future Canadian governments might start to try not only to diversify Canada's trade but also to distance Canada slowly and gradually from the US militarily. It might not mean an immediate end to NATO, but it could mean very hard feelings among NATO partners for years to come. This could affect NATO's reliability and effectiveness. Also, other countries would take note of Canada's humiliating defeat in the trade war on the world stage. Basic psychology suggests that that could raise other countries' willingness to build closer economic ties with Canada and would they too might then want to gradually shift trade away from the US too. In other words, even if the US wins this trade war, other countries including Canada will react slowly and subtly to try to prevent the same from happening to them again. Trump would win the initial battle, but future presidents for the next few decades will need to work to rebuild trust. You don't humiliate another country on the world stage and not expect a negative reaction over the long term. National humiliation does not heal over night.

I agree with some of what you say. Another concern of mine is that once Trump is gone after the next US presidential election or the one after that, he will have left behind him a somewhat more protectionist and anti-US Canada, the exact opposite of what he's trying to accomplish. Not only will this Canadian protectionism and nationalism hurt the US, but it will hurt Canada even more. Already even the Conservative Party is feeling the pressure to speak more firmly in support of supply management and protection for its agricultural sector etc. Even before this trade war started, Canadians were already too protectionist in my opinion. Even Harper was. But at least we could hope that Canadians might become persuaded towards more free trade over time. Trump has just destroyed in a few months decades of Canadians gradually habituating themselves to free trade with the US. He's just made it that much more difficult for any future US president to regain the trust of any future Canadian government at least in the foreseeable future regardless of the party in power.

I hate to say it, but but a part of me hopes it becomes a very hot trade war. It may seriously damage the Canadian economy in the short term, but it might be just what we need to break the back of Canada's agricultural cartels. Another part of me fears that this could also backfire in unexpected ways. However much I favour unilateral free trade, I also recognize that should Trump be the direct cause of breaking Canada's agricultural cartels for example, Canadians may hold that resentment for decades to come. We might end up with more free trade with the US like the US wants, but we'd also end up more conscious of the US' economic power and its willingness to use it to strong-arm us into submission. This could have long-term ramifications in Canada's willingness to back the US in future military endeavours and perhaps many other fields of cooperation, economic or otherwise. However much I oppose Canadian protectionism, it would prove much healthier for future Canada-US relations for Canada to choose to freely and willingly abandon its protectionism than to be humiliated on the world stage as the US beats it down into submission. If that's how Canada turns to freer trade, Canadian voters and governments will remember it for decades to come. Worse yet, other countries in Europe, Asia, and South America will also take note of the US' treatment of Canada and so distance themselves from the US too. Trump is playing a very dangerous game over the long term by directly attacking Canadians' national pride. For crying out loud, he's accomplished what few have accomplished before: united Parliamentary support for an unpopular Prime Minister against Trump.