Joe Blow

If more charges come out, especially against carded Grits as opposed to ad firms, Dion will have a tough go of the next election. Even if 50-60% of the electorate is sick and tired of hearing of corruption; the TV news photos of Grits being led away in handcuffs will reignite the poweder keg all over again. If that happens, and Harper doesn't blow up on the campaign trail, look for a Tory majority in the next election.

The journalist panel on Politics was venturing today that Dion will hold Outremont for a handpicked candidate, most likely a woman (a large pet project of his). Cauchon certainly can't be his favorite Grit right now either after clearly choosing Iggy over Dion on the last ballot; looking towards his own leadership aspirations in the next round. The Tories are rumoured to be courting the former head of Hydro Quebec (name escapes me right now) to run, most likely in Outremont when the by-election is called. It is a long shot for the Tories, but if the by-elections happen after the NDP-Tories hash out an environmental plan, the Tories might have a shot; providing the plan is good and solid.

C-48; being a bill dealing with the disbursment of public funds (a money bill) is by default a matter of confidence. A government loss on any bill dealing with the spending of public funds (or change in taxation for that matter) is by definition a matter of confidence.

All the deals that Martin is running around the country handing out are conditional on economic performance and surplus figures. That includes the $4.6 for the NPD, the McGuinty deal, etc, etc, etc,. The only deal it doesn't include is the Atlantic Accord. The deal the NDP made specified that they would prop up the government on all confidence matters before the House until such time as the budget receives royal assent. That could be a very long time considering the 04/05 budget is still in the Senate.

No, once the bill has made it past third reading in the House, then it survives dissolution of parliament; otherwise very little would ever get done considering how long it takes to pass bills through the senate. Parts of the 04/05 budget bill are still in the Senate; and we've been through an election during that period of time as well.

The CBC is now running a story outlining (with quotes from Harper) a very similar scenario to the one I just outlined. The Tories will support C-43 (the main budget bill) and will oppose C-48 (the NDP deal bill). Should be an interesting ride on Thursday.

After doing a little digging at parl.gc.ca; C-43 & C-48 will come to a vote on Thurs for second reading. It may be (and has been done in the past) that the Government house leader will seek the consent of the House to have the bill read and passed in all respects meaning that Thurs vote would in effect count as both second and third readings. If this is the case, then the subsequent defeat of the government on C-48 only minutes later would have no affect on C-43 as it would have already passed from the Lower to Upper House. If, however, C-43 is only read and passed through Second reading before the government is defeated then the budget dies on the order paper.

Well there are two votes on Thurs, C-43 & C-48. C-43 (Actual budget & 1st in voting order): Hearn & Doyle vote with the government. Grits survive and Atlantic Accord passes (Gives the NL&L MP's a feather in their cap) C-48 ($4.6 Bln NDP buyout plan): Hearn, Doyle, Cadman, Kilgour against the Grits; government falls and we're off to the polls.

Do you have problems with spelling? I thought conservative and Tory were fairly easy words to spell, but I see I may have been mistaken......... While I agree that the MacKay move doesn't look good, many people just aren't aware, or don't care. They expect their politicians to be a little on the shady side. The Canadian electorate has become decidedly cynical about politics. So much so that the last CBC poll (released yesterday) shows 68% of Canadians think all political parties are just as bad as the thieving Liberals...........

But how many would actually digest it all and sway their opinion based on it? Perception in politics is 9/10 of the game; and making this stick to MacKay enough to cause him serious harm in an election is probably not realistic.

The platform was actually an amalgamation of the two parties previous policy documents. Areas of common ground were funneled into the platform that Harper released in 2004. The problem being that there was not common ground on all issues and therefore no 'official policy' on some issues. This left them open avenues for easy attack on the 'hidden agenda' line.

If you look at the political history of Ontario you will notice that Conservatives have held government since 1943 with three exceptions; being Bob Rae, David Peterson, and Dalton McGuinty; and we all know how wildly successfull those 3 have been.......

In case you missed the episode at the convention where everyone was discussing MacKay's 'hissy fit'; this issue was resolved. It now stands that every riding may send 10 elected delegates plus two automatics (the association president and the MP/candidate of record). The proposed system would have allowed larger ridings (population wise) to send more delegates than smaller ones (on a sliding scale). This of course would make it easier for western delegates to swing the party as they see fit. There are ridings out in Alberta and Saskatchewan with literally tens of thousands of members each; by contrast there are ridings in Quebec with less than a hundred members. The Orchard baggage would actually be more trouble inside the party than in a general election IMO. How many Canadians actually followed the PC leadership convention? How many Canadains do you think actually know and understand all that went on? For that matter, how many Canadians do you think actually know who the hell David Orchard is? The opposition would have a tough time sinking him if Orchard was the only weapon in their arsenal.

Belinda won't win the leadership anytime soon, maybe in about 10 years. Her last bid was uninspired and her public speaking skills are deplorable when compared to others in the party. Her French needs desperate work and her political ground war skills are really non-existant at this time. She needs a lot more moulding before she's ready. MacKay would make an interesting choice providing he could get over hurdles within the conservatives first. Definitely a good man in a debate with very solid French and a strong command of the issues. Aside from those two obvious ones, there are not many around that have epxressed serious interest who also have the capabilities as well. But this is all idle speculation, Harper will not be replaced before the next election so we'll have to wait and see.

I think you've missed two who may take a run at it once again although the likelyhood of them succeeding (for one at least is minimal at best); John Manley and Alan Rock. Rock probably doesn't have a hope in hell for leadership and most definitely not PM but Manley just may succeed where others fail. He is widely seen as being part of the Chretien era but distinctly distant from Sponsorship and other scandals that have broken the Liberals back over time. Other than that I'm not sure. Dryden is really an opportunist if you ask me. He was lending us his box at ACC for Conservative fundraising (he was present for the events), meanwhile he announced his Liberal candidacy two weeks after our last event.