Harry Hayfield

Three Day Moving Average Conservative 36.67% Liberals 27.18% New Democrats 19.53% Bloc Quebecois 7.70% Greens 7.10% Others 1.82% Con short by 18, Lib lead coalition maj 49

I always believe that when it comes to polls, you need a moving average "poll of polls" in order to get some sense of what is happening. Using the polling data that has been listed on Wikipedia and taking the polls since the election was announced, I get the following (working on the assumption that the election was being held on April 10th 2011) Conservatives 39.22% (+1.56%) Liberals 29.84% (+3.21%) New Democrats 15.36% (-2.81%) Bloc Quebecois 9.09% (-0.89%) Greens 5.20% (-1.60%) Others 1.60% (+0.43%) Conservative lead of 9.38% on a swing from Con to Lib of 0.83% According to the calculator used on FairVote Canda that would see the following House: Conservatives 147 seats (+4 seats) Liberals 93 seats (+16 seats) New Democrats 22 seats (-15 seats) Bloc Quebecois 44 seats (-5 seats) Greens 0 seats (unchanged) Others 2 seats (unchanged) leaving the Conservatives short of an overall majority by 8 seats, but a Lib / NDP / Bloc coalition with 159 seats (and a majority of 12 seats)

And if you Google "The Tally Room + Australian Greens" you can find a downloadbale Google Earth map showing the election results at the riding level

Do I understand from that, that you believe the Liberals will be very hard pressed to gain any of the seats on their battleground?

I have a list showing the result in every single riding at the 2008 general election. In 2008, the result for Saint Boniface was: Conservatives 19,440 (46.32%) Liberal 14,728 (35.09%) NDP 5,502 (13.11%) Green 2,104 (5.01%) Others 195 (0.46%) Conservative WIN with a majority of 4,712 (11.23%) If the Liberals secure a national swing of 5.62%, then Saint Boniface would go Liberal and would be the 39th seat to do so on a national uniform swing.

These battlegrounds show which seats need to fall for a party to get an overall majority and are ranked by % swing. These are not offical targets, but targets that might be used by the media on Election Night.

Conservative Battleground If these ridings go blue, then Stephen Harper has an overall majority 1 Vancouver South 2 Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca 3 Brampton West 4 Welland 5 Edmonton--Strathcona 6 Burnaby--Douglas 7 Brampton--Springdale 8 Sault Ste. Marie 9 New Westminster--Coquitlam 10 Guelph 11 Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 12 Western Arctic Liberal Battleground If all these seats go red, then Michael Ignatieff will become Prime Minister with an overall majority 1 Kitchener--Waterloo 2 Egmont 3 Mississauga--Erindale 4 Oak Ridges--Markham 5 Kitchener Centre 6 Ahuntsic 7 Saint John 8 Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 9 Brome--Missisquoi 10 Jeanne-Le Ber 11 London West 12 West Nova 13 Gatineau 14 Saanich--Gulf Islands 15 North Vancouver 16 Sudbury 17 Welland 18 Miramichi 19 Nunavut 20 Trinity--Spadina 21 Ottawa--Orléans 22 Vancouver Kingsway 23 Outremont 24 Thunder Bay--Rainy River 25 Pontiac 26 Haldimand--Norfolk 27 Thunder Bay--Superior North 28 Kenora 29 Brant 30 Ottawa West--Nepean 31 Saint-Lambert 32 Alfred-Pellan 33 Thornhill 34 Laval 35 Oakville 36 Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 37 Essex 38 Fredericton 39 Saint Boniface 40 Halton 41 Huron--Bruce 42 South Shore--St. Margaret's 43 Newmarket--Aurora 44 Louis-Hébert 45 Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 46 Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine 47 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 48 Ottawa Centre 49 Winnipeg South 50 Halifax 51 Burlington 52 Toronto--Danforth 53 Peterborough 54 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 55 St. Catharines 56 West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country 57 Burnaby--Douglas 58 Fleetwood--Port Kells 59 Churchill 60 Chatham-Kent--Essex 61 Richmond 62 Compton--Stanstead 63 Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale 64 Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 65 Niagara Falls 66 Vaudreuil-Soulanges 67 Northumberland--Quinte West 68 Nickel Belt 69 Laurentides--Labelle 70 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 71 Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 72 Shefford 73 Edmonton Centre 74 Drummond 75 Simcoe North 76 Beauport--Limoilou 77 Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert 78 Saint-Maurice--Champlain If the Liberals make 43 gains or more, they become the largest party in a hung parliament

Based on the average polls since March 24th 2011 (the day before the confidence vote), I have the following: Con 39% Lib 25% NDP 18% Bloc 10% Greens 8% Ind 1% Others 1% which is a Con lead of 14%. Based on a national uniform swing this would see the following result: Con 150 (+7) Lib 73 (-4) Bloc 49 (n/c) NDP 34 (-3) Ind 2 (n/c) with the Conservatives five short of an overall majority. Any Lib led coalition would be 73 + 49 + 34 = 156.

If I was the campaign managers for the various parties I would make the following suggestions: Conservatives: Send your local candidates to the existing 143 ridings you hold at the moment. If a sitting MP has announced they intend to stand down in a riding, then get the highest ranking local Conservative to tag along with the new candidate. The Prime Minister should visit each of the 12 target seats they need to gain (to win an overall majority) at least three times during the campaign and attempt to visit all 12 within 24 hours prior to the polls opening Liberals: "Sir" I would say to the Liberal leader, "in order to win an overall majority, we need to gain 78 ridings. That requires a swing to us of 11.5% or in other words we would need to be leading in the polls by no less than 12%. The current polls suggest that we are trailing by 7%. Therefore do not talk about being able to form a majority government, the electorate will simply not believe it. If you want to become Prime Minister, you need to be able to gain a minimum of 34 ridings (which will be possible on a 5% swing), however I would recommend getting a 6% swing (which would gain 42 ridings and have the added benefit of ensuring that the Liberals not only had the most seats in Parliament but the most popular votes. It was this statement that Nick Clegg, the leader of your British counterparts recognised when the British election produced a hung parliament. You could then use that position to start talking to either the NDP or the Bloc. Finally, I would advise that you be completely honest and say that if you are unable to command an overall majority through the ballot box, you would invite the leaders of the NDP and the Bloc to dicussions about the formation of a coalition government from the start" NDP: Keep the 37 ridings you have at the moment and concentrate all your firepower on Saskatoon, Rosetown and Biggar, South Shore and St. Margaret's, St John's South and Mount Pearl, Gatineau, Surrey North and Vancouver Island North. Those are the top six NDP targets and in association with keeping the 37 you hold at the moment, would enable you to prove that the NDP can grow. Bloc: Dans un monde idéal, je serais bien sûr dire «Gagnez toutes les circonscriptions du Québec », mais qui exigerait un swing de 25,64% (ce qui est tout simplement impossible!). Ce que je vais dire, c'est que vous visez les objectifs onze premiers et le but de gagner circonscriptions globale de soixante. Greens: The campaign needs to about three things only. Guelph, Central Nova and Vancouver Centre. We are falling behind our international colleagues. Look at Britain in the last ten years they have elected ten Greens to national office. There were six Greens in the Scottish Parliament elections in 2003, a Green was elected in Northern Ireland's Assembly in 2007 and last year the Greens won a riding for the federal parliament in Brighton for the first time ever. We need to win a riding!

Coould I ask which polls have the greatest historical accuracy? National polls (conducted across the whole country) or provincal polls asking federal voting intention (done in each province)?

I was writing from the context of the United Kingdom where three days after Canada votes, the UK votes in a series of provincal, council and national elections. The national election is a referendum on the Alternative Vote electoral system, which if it falls is likely to lead to a UK general election in October 2011

That does rather suggest therefore that I might be in the minority. I like elections (especially those that have a base in the majority voting system) such as the UK (which by the way will be holding a mega set of elections 72 hours later, the results of which could set in chain a series of events that lead to our own general election in October of this year).