Budget March 19th

[scribblet]

So, we have a budget coming on March 19, it will give provinces more money and cut corporate and personal income taxes.

Flaherty has said the government's financial picture is so healthy, it can afford "significant tax reduction" beyond the $2.5 billion in cuts already slated to be enacted in the 2007 budget. He also says that Ottawa is taking in so much revenue that it can also fix the fiscal imbalance between the federal and provincial governments.

The new Strategic Counsel poll suggests the Conservatives have the support of 34 percent of Canadians, with the Liberals at 29 percent. (not the same as one just posted)

- A Canadian Press report noted that the third week in March will be a perfect political storm. Not only will the threat of a confidence vote hang over the Commons, but a Quebec election will enter its crucial final week

Globeandmail page A4

Looks good to me here we go, will the opposition bring down the gov't...

[geoffrey]

Almost certainly the government will fall on the budget, I don't know about the 3rd week of March. I figure the House will defer the Budget to committee then vote it down once the Quebec results are known.

If the PQ is destroyed in Quebec, the Bloc will be hesitent to force their hand in this one. If the Bloc supports the budget, it passes. The ADQ's strong performance right now could throw enough doubt into the mix to hold off until first week of April.

[jdobbin]

Almost certainly the government will fall on the budget, I don't know about the 3rd week of March. I figure the House will defer the Budget to committee then vote it down once the Quebec results are known.

If the PQ is destroyed in Quebec, the Bloc will be hesitent to force their hand in this one. If the Bloc supports the budget, it passes. The ADQ's strong performance right now could throw enough doubt into the mix to hold off until first week of April.

I think that Harper will look to call an election even if the budget isn't defeated. It will happen practically on top of the Quebec election to keep Bloq and PQ workers from working on each other's campaigns.

There is no way that Harper wants to go into an election if things go badly in Afghanistan. His window is now.

[geoffrey]

I think that Harper will look to call an election even if the budget isn't defeated. It will happen practically on top of the Quebec election to keep Bloq and PQ workers from working on each other's campaigns.

Harper tied his hands there with the fixed election date. It'd be quite difficult to political explain calling an election sooner.

His window is now.

Your right, he's looking at some great numbers to head into an election with.

[jdobbin]

Harper tied his hands there with the fixed election date. It'd be quite difficult to political explain calling an election sooner.

Your right, he's looking at some great numbers to head into an election with.

He could say anything to justify it. He can blame the courts, blame the Senate, blame the Opposition.

I doubt he would lose the election for breaking that promise. He has more to fear from other issues than fixed election dates.