Next Federal election predictions. When and why?

[Ricki Bobbi]

The same place the Liberals did back in '93 is what I'm guessing.

Btw, I forgot.....what were the polsters saying back then? Did the smart ones have the Conservatives down to 2 seats? 5? 10? 20?.............50?........................70?

Hope your right about the first part.

Lot's of people saw it coming.

Mulroney was quoted as saying he believed the PCs would be lucky to hold onto party status in the House, i.e. 12 seats. Does that make him a smart one?

[geoffrey]

I don't see the same dynamic in this election coming. I think it would require a stronger NDP to pose a real problem for the Liberals.

The NDP and the CPC stand to gain if Harper cuts a deal with Layton on environment...

[Ricki Bobbi]

I don't think anyone predicted how well Reform and the Bloq would do. The Liberals don't have the challenge from the NDP that the Conservatives did from Reform.

The predictions were out there.

The last Angus Reid and Gallup polls, published three days before the election both came within two points of all the opposition parties results and three of the Liberals.

[rat-a-tat-tat]

I think it would require a stronger NDP to pose a real problem for the Liberals.

Personally, I'd much prefer Jack Layton representing us internationaly than Monsieur Dion.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Personally, I'd much prefer Jack Layton representing us internationaly than Monsieur Dion.

Wow.

[jdobbin]

Personally, I'd much prefer Jack Layton representing us internationaly than Monsieur Dion.

Any particular reason?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Don't hold your breath waiting for an NDP government!

My best guess is another minority for the Conservatives, unless of course the Liberals grow a brain and a spine. If the Liberals and the NDP attempt a coalition platform, the Consevatives will fall. Now start a serious attempt to unseat the right with an anybody but Conservative movement, geared toward social policy and the environment and you can kiss the right wing goodbye. Citizens in my view would support an internally focused government, set aside foreign affairs and focus on the improvement of the condition of Canadian citizens for a majority!

[rat-a-tat-tat]

Any particular reason?

Bacause of Chretien, the people of the world already suspect that Canada is mainly a French speaking country. What do you think they'd think if Dion followed, so soon already, with his even *clumsier* English communication skills?

Personally, I'm getting fed up with having to explain why, being a Canadian, I don't speak the mother tongue, French!

I have more reasons and revelations about why people should shun Dion, but I'm saving it for when the election is in full swing.

[jdobbin]

Don't hold your breath waiting for an NDP government!

My best guess is another minority for the Conservatives, unless of course the Liberals grow a brain and a spine. If the Liberals and the NDP attempt a coalition platform, the Consevatives will fall. Now start a serious attempt to unseat the right with an anybody but Conservative movement, geared toward social policy and the environment and you can kiss the right wing goodbye. Citizens in my view would support an internally focused government, set aside foreign affairs and focus on the improvement of the condition of Canadian citizens for a majority!

At the moment, I tend to agree that a Harper minority looks likely to repeat itself.

The NDP in the last election ran against the Liberals rather than against the Tories. It was only fair since it was the Liberals who were the government.

I still think the NDP will try and run against the Liberals again as they think to make gains there than against the Tories. If they look like they are ignoring the Tories to focus on the Liberals, it will only focus attention on the Liberals that they are the party who are in opposition to the Tories.

The NDP want to see their ideas become national policy. However, in the attempt it looks like they have been co-opted by the government of day. It is why they have done poorly supporting minority governments.

[jdobbin]

Bacause of Chretien, the people of the world already suspect that Canada is mainly a French speaking country. What do you think they'd think if Dion followed, so soon already, with his even *clumsier* English communication skills?

Personally, I'm getting fed up with having to explain why, being a Canadian, I don't speak the mother tongue, French!

I have more reasons and revelations about why people should shun Dion, but I'm saving it for when the election is in full swing.

We'll have to see how Dion performs. At the moment, he seems to be bringing in people like Kennedy, Ignatieff and Rae to shore up areas where he is weak in.

Today, he was in Winnipeg in support of the Canadian Wheat Board.

Somehow the NDP has been invisible on this issue. Where is Jack Layton?

[ClearWest]

Today, he was in Winnipeg in support of the Canadian Wheat Board.

Somehow the NDP has been invisible on this issue. Where is Jack Layton?

He's been speaking in favour of keeping the wheat board - it's on his party's website. I think we're just seeing more of Dion since he's the new official opposition leader. People are watching him closely.

[Ricki Bobbi]

He's been speaking in favour of keeping the wheat board - it's on his party's website. I think we're just seeing more of Dion since he's the new official opposition leader. People are watching him closely.

This wheat board issue is an interesting one.

Farmer's are pretty evenly divided. With the Liberals and Dippers fighting over themselves to support the CWB that leaves a lot of prairie farmers with Harper as their only option.

[jdobbin]

He's been speaking in favour of keeping the wheat board - it's on his party's website. I think we're just seeing more of Dion since he's the new official opposition leader. People are watching him closely.

Layton should have come. It is what a lot of NDpers themselves were saying today.

There are also a lot of provincial Tories who are pissed on the Wheat Board too. I don't federal Tories should assume all provincial Tories are on their side on this.

[rat-a-tat-tat]

I don't think anyone predicted how well Reform and the Bloq would do. The Liberals don't have the challenge from the NDP that the Conservatives did from Reform.

The predictions were out there.

The last Angus Reid and Gallup polls, published three days before the election both came within two points of all the opposition parties results and three of the Liberals.

They had the Conservatives pegged for 2 seats?

I didn't know that.

If that is true, then Brian Mulroney's dire prediction (insider info) of around 12, just before the bell, must have looked ludicrously high to an ordinary pundit.

Beats me why you're mixing up the elections.

[Ricki Bobbi]

They had the Conservatives pegged for 2 seats?

I didn't know that.

If that is true, then Brian Mulroney's dire prediction (insider info) of around 12, just before the bell, must have looked ludicrously high to an ordinary pundit.

Beats me why you're mixing up the elections.

Angus Reid pegged Conservative support at 18%, Gallup at 16%. The Conservatives ended up with 16%. Given that the support was not concentrated in anyone region in the country, a single-digit number of seats was a predictable outcome.

Mulroney predicting the PCs to lose 141 seats when they lost 149 seems more prescient than ludicrous.

What elections am I mixing up?

[rat-a-tat-tat]

What elections am I mixing up?

When you said "both came within two points of all the opposition parties results and three of the Liberals." I thought you were mixing them up.

[Ricki Bobbi]

When you said "both came within two points of all the opposition parties results and three of the Liberals." I thought you were mixing them up.

My exact quote was:

The last Angus Reid and Gallup polls, published three days before the election both came within two points of all the opposition parties results and three of the Liberals.

You confused both *polls* for two elections?