Tories continue to lead Labour in Britain

[nickjbor]

from this

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/14015

- The opposition Conservative party has extended its lead in Britain, according to a poll by ICM Research published in News of the World. 39 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next general election.

The governing Labour party is second with 31 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 20 per cent. Ten per cent of respondents would vote for other parties. Support for the Tories increased by two points since mid-November, while backing for Labour fell by one point.

In May 2005, British voters renewed the House of Commons. The Labour party secured 356 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 197 and the Liberal Democrats with 62. Labour leader Tony Blair has served as prime minister since 1997. On Sept. 7, Blair announced his eventual retirement from politics. Current chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown has been mentioned as his possible replacement.

Since December 2005, David Cameron has been the leader of the Conservative party. In March, the Liberal Democrats chose foreign affairs spokesman Menzies Campbell as their new leader.

Yesterday, Blair discussed the state of the National Health Service (NHS), declaring, "I think people a decade ago were kind of asking, not will the NHS work but could it work—was it an inherently flawed concept almost that meant that it had to be dismantled? Managing this system of change is incredibly difficult. And I think now that is not the question. Now people accept that it can be improved, the question is how."

The next election to the House of Commons must be held on or before Jun. 3, 2010. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion.

Polling Data

If there were to be a general election tomorrow, which party do you think you would vote for?

Nov. 30

Nov. 19

Oct. 22

Conservative

39%

37%

39%

Labour

31%

32%

29%

Liberal Democrat

20%

22%

22%

Other

10%

9%

9%

[jbg]

That analysis is irrelevant without analyzing by riding. Just ask Kim Campbell, who got close to 20% of the vote, but only 2 ridings.

[nickjbor]

That analysis is irrelevant without analyzing by riding. Just ask Kim Campbell, who got close to 20% of the vote, but only 2 ridings.

that's a specious argument. in 1993 the Reform Party split the vote with the tories, especially in Ontario. there is no such thing in the UK. it is true that for the LD's their vote numbers never translate well, but neither does the NDP here in Canada. the key numbers are Labour VS Conservatives. and at the moment, the tories have a wide lead; enough to win a majority.

[geoffrey]

That analysis is irrelevant without analyzing by riding. Just ask Kim Campbell, who got close to 20% of the vote, but only 2 ridings.

that's a specious argument. in 1993 the Reform Party split the vote with the tories, especially in Ontario. there is no such thing in the UK. it is true that for the LD's their vote numbers never translate well, but neither does the NDP here in Canada. the key numbers are Labour VS Conservatives. and at the moment, the tories have a wide lead; enough to win a majority.

Bernard Lord's Tories in New Brunswick actually increased their popular vote by a few percent and managed to lose their government.

[nickjbor]

Bernard Lord's Tories in New Brunswick actually increased their popular vote by a few percent and managed to lose their government.

yes, and note the ridings changed.

here:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html

click "forecast"

look under "seats, 2000"

these are the results of the 2000 election on the 2000 election map

however these:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast-revised.html

are the results of the 2000 election on the 2004 election map

as you can see, the Liberals gained 2 seats, the Alliance 4, and the PC party 1, without gaining a single vote.

[jbg]

that's a specious argument. in 1993 the Reform Party split the vote with the tories, especially in Ontario. there is no such thing in the UK. it is true that for the LD's their vote numbers never translate well, but neither does the NDP here in Canada. the key numbers are Labour VS Conservatives. and at the moment, the tories have a wide lead; enough to win a majority.

Hypothetically (and I doubt its totally the case) if the Tories have 90% support in 1/3 of the ridings, and almost no support anywhere else, they still wind up with about 50% of the popular vote, with 1/3 of Parliament to show for it. In a two-party Parliamentary country that leaves them pounding sand.

The term of art is "efficiency" of support, I believe.