CanWest: Liberal popularity surging with Dion at the helm

[gerryhatrick]

Liberal popularity surging with Dion at the helm

Mark Kennedy, CanWest News Service

Published: Saturday, December 09, 2006

OTTAWA -- Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has received a dramatic boost in public support in the wake of the recent leadership convention and would defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives if a general election was held today, a major new poll has found.

The nationwide survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service and Global TV, reveals there has been a stunning turnaround in political fortunes for the Liberals, who are now at their peak of popularity since being turfed from power earlier this year.

Dion's popularity is particularly strong in the electoral battleground of Ontario, his home province of Quebec, and in British Columbia.

snip

According to the poll of 1,004 adult Canadians, conducted Dec. 5-7, if an election was held tomorrow:

38 per cent of decided voters would cast their ballots for the Liberals, up by seven percentage points since the last Ipsos Reid poll in November;

32 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, a drop of five percentage points;

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...ac-eecf9259425b

They've tried to vilify him for his dual citizenship. That garbage, started by a far-rightwinger, flowed through the gutter during 3+ news cycles. No effect. I actually think it probably helps him, since people are annoyed by such petty attacks. My dyed in the wool NDP co-worker plans to have a chat with Pat Martin. She's a dual citizen and is quite bothered that her hero has made this an issue.

I have several political barometers who I go to to ask about politics when I want to know what the average Canadian is thinking. They're women, and only scantily aware of the daily politics, and have a foot in both political worlds as far as issues go. None of them are partisan voters. They are all telling me they like Dion very much. One of them saw him on the CBC "your turn" and she says "I love" him! He has a real appeal, and that comes through quite clearly.

I think all the CPC can hope for now is that Dion has a tragic accident. Anything short of that and he's our next PM.

[Catch89]

The same was said about Stockwell Day in 2000.

[cybercoma]

So, you asked a woman, completely ignorant to politics and Canadian issues, what she thinks of Dion and because she "loves him," you think that's indicative of all Canadians? Nice one.

[jdobbin]

I think all the CPC can hope for now is that Dion has a tragic accident. Anything short of that and he's our next PM.

Harper is making the citizenship an issue.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/harper_dion

[gerryhatrick]

So, you asked a woman, completely ignorant to politics and Canadian issues, what she thinks of Dion and because she "loves him," you think that's indicative of all Canadians? Nice one.

Women, not woman. And I did not say they were completely ignorant of politics and Canadian issues. They're "scantily" aware of "daily politics", which is to say they are like MOST Canadians in that they don't follow it closely. They are still very intelligent and able to pick up political issues and are well aware of and opinionated those political issues that remain in the spotlight.

This is, as I said, more in line with most Canadians than someone like myself who follows politics and reads all the headlines and half the internet articles each day.

Understand better now?

The fact that this one woman who knows little about Dion and has no political partisanship (she's as likely to vote CPC as any other party) said she "loved him" after watching him is very significant. It is a first impression from someone in tune to subtle cues that lead to trust - a woman.

[gerryhatrick]

I think all the CPC can hope for now is that Dion has a tragic accident. Anything short of that and he's our next PM.

Harper is making the citizenship an issue.

Good. That's a loser issue for him.

I hope he brings it up often!

[cybercoma]

Women, not woman. And I did not say they were completely ignorant of politics and Canadian issues. They're "scantily" aware of "daily politics", which is to say they are like MOST Canadians in that they don't follow it closely. They are still very intelligent and able to pick up political issues and are well aware of and opinionated those political issues that remain in the spotlight.

This is, as I said, more in line with most Canadians than someone like myself who follows politics and reads all the headlines and half the internet articles each day.

Understand better now?

The fact that this one woman who knows little about Dion and has no political partisanship (she's as likely to vote CPC as any other party) said she "loved him" after watching him is very significant. It is a first impression from someone in tune to subtle cues that lead to trust - a woman.

I'm still confused, you say you asked women...then you continue to be anecdotal about this one particular woman.

For interest's sake, since you say she's just as likely to vote CPC, what riding?

[gerryhatrick]

I'm still confused, you say you asked women...then you continue to be anecdotal about this one particular woman.

I originally referred to several women who are scantily aware of daily politics. You referred to that attribute, so I assumed you were not appreciating the fact that I use several women as the barometer.

I hope I have explained the situation about this particular woman (as well as the other women) so you can better understand they're not "completely ignorant to politics and Canadian issues", as you incorrectly assumed.

For interest's sake, since you say she's just as likely to vote CPC, what riding?

I don't understand why you would find that remotely interesting.

[Canadian Blue]

Don't we have about ten other topics on polls, that's why I started the topic dealing with polls so we wouldn't get this page crammed with people spewing off their partisan nonsense any chance they get.

PS: It's an interesting poll, but once again, Stockwell Day was also thought to be the next PM of the country, and look at what happened to him. It looks like the NDP is losing its support to the Liberal's. Does anybody else have a feeling if this trend continues, and if [iF Gerry, nothing is assured] the NDP continues to lose support to the Green's and Liberal's could we see the NDP reduced to a few seats.

I actually think it probably helps him, since people are annoyed by such petty attacks. My dyed in the wool NDP co-worker plans to have a chat with Pat Martin. She's a dual citizen and is quite bothered that her hero has made this an issue.

Women, not woman. And I did not say they were completely ignorant of politics and Canadian issues. They're "scantily" aware of "daily politics", which is to say they are like MOST Canadians in that they don't follow it closely. They are still very intelligent and able to pick up political issues and are well aware of and opinionated those political issues that remain in the spotlight.

But weren't you referring to a specific woman, and not making a generality.

[jdobbin]

Don't we have about ten other topics on polls, that's why I started the topic dealing with polls so we wouldn't get this page crammed with people spewing off their partisan nonsense any chance they get.

PS: It's an interesting poll, but once again, Stockwell Day was also thought to be the next PM of the country, and look at what happened to him. It looks like the NDP is losing its support to the Liberal's. Does anybody else have a feeling if this trend continues, and if [iF Gerry, nothing is assured] the NDP continues to lose support to the Green's and Liberal's could we see the NDP reduced to a few seats.

The Alliance had 30% in the polls at one point but quickly fell to traditional levels by the time the election was called. The Liberals were expected to win when they called the snap vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_fede...lection%2C_2000

Dion has indeed gotten a boost in the polls but the Liberals were pulling closer even before they had a leader.

[gerryhatrick]

Don't we have about ten other topics on polls, that's why I started the topic dealing with polls so we wouldn't get this page crammed...

Just because you've started a topic on polls does not mean that all political polls from that day forward belong in your topic.

Polls are an important part of our national politics. A new poll, especially one of particular relevance as this one is, is fully legitimate as a new topic.

[Argus]

Liberal popularity surging with Dion at the helm

Mark Kennedy, CanWest News Service

Published: Saturday, December 09, 2006

OTTAWA -- Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has received a dramatic boost in public support in the wake of the recent leadership convention and would defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives if a general election was held today, a major new poll has found.

The nationwide survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service and Global TV, reveals there has been a stunning turnaround in political fortunes for the Liberals, who are now at their peak of popularity since being turfed from power earlier this year.

Dion's popularity is particularly strong in the electoral battleground of Ontario, his home province of Quebec, and in British Columbia.

snip

According to the poll of 1,004 adult Canadians, conducted Dec. 5-7, if an election was held tomorrow:

38 per cent of decided voters would cast their ballots for the Liberals, up by seven percentage points since the last Ipsos Reid poll in November;

32 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, a drop of five percentage points;

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...ac-eecf9259425b

They've tried to vilify him for his dual citizenship. That garbage, started by a far-rightwinger, flowed through the gutter during 3+ news cycles. No effect. I actually think it probably helps him, since people are annoyed by such petty attacks. My dyed in the wool NDP co-worker plans to have a chat with Pat Martin. She's a dual citizen and is quite bothered that her hero has made this an issue.

I have several political barometers who I go to to ask about politics when I want to know what the average Canadian is thinking. They're women, and only scantily aware of the daily politics, and have a foot in both political worlds as far as issues go. None of them are partisan voters. They are all telling me they like Dion very much. One of them saw him on the CBC "your turn" and she says "I love" him! He has a real appeal, and that comes through quite clearly.

I think all the CPC can hope for now is that Dion has a tragic accident. Anything short of that and he's our next PM.

It was inevitable that the Liberals would get a bump up due to the massive favourable publicity they got from their nomination process. Plus the Tories haven't had things very well, of late. But the same sex thing is behind them, as is the worst of the environment thing. And the novelty factor will soon wear thin once people get to know Dion.

An interesting factor you're not mentioning is that most of the Liberals' newfound support is coming from the NDP, not the Tories. Jack Layton and his party have collapsed in the recent polls, down to a miserable 13% in this one.

[gerryhatrick]

It was inevitable that the Liberals would get a bump up due to the massive favourable publicity they got from their nomination process.

Oh of course, that goes without saying and it's mentioned in the story. This is an AWFULLY BIG bump though, and I would be surprised if it were all due to the convention.

An interesting factor you're not mentioning is that most of the Liberals' newfound support is coming from the NDP, not the Tories. Jack Layton and his party have collapsed in the recent polls, down to a miserable 13% in this one.

Well, actually, the story portrays the Cons as losing the most:

32 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, a drop of five percentage points;

13 per cent would support the NDP under Jack Layton, down by two percentage points;

[Canadian Blue]

It's been around 32% for what, the past three month's. I bet most of the new Liberal growth is coming from the NDP who might see their more "moderate" support go to the Liberal's instead.

Polls are an important part of our national politics. A new poll, especially one of particular relevance as this one is, is fully legitimate as a new topic.

Not really, polls mean jackshit until an election is called. Look at the polls from the 93 election.

Oh of course, that goes without saying and it's mentioned in the story. This is an AWFULLY BIG bump though, and I would be surprised if it were all due to the convention.

Well they preempted the f$#king Simpson's for the Liberal convention. When all your being hit with is constant Liberal praise and bashing Conservative's I'd imagine that would give any party quite a boost. I'm sure if Girls Gone Wild was playing an infomercial the whole weekend with some uncensored footage more people would by buying the tapes instead of downloading them illegaly.

Beginning of the election

PC-35

Lib-37

Ref-10

NDP- 8

BQ- 8

End of the election

PC-16

Lib-41

Ref-19

NDP-7

BQ-14

Listen I know your a hardcore Liberaholic. But really we don't need to clutter the board with topics based on polls when only one topic can do. I'm not sure who I'm gonna vote for in the next election [depends on a variety of factors], but your constant topics of little relevance other than bashing the Conservatives in someway just gets annoying.

As well I also strongly admire your truthiness at the same time. But, just stick it in a topic where a poll is allready being discussed.

[mikedavid00]

It was inevitable that the Liberals would get a bump up due to the massive favourable publicity they got from their nomination process.

Oh of course, that goes without saying and it's mentioned in the story. This is an AWFULLY BIG bump though, and I would be surprised if it were all due to the convention.

An interesting factor you're not mentioning is that most of the Liberals' newfound support is coming from the NDP, not the Tories. Jack Layton and his party have collapsed in the recent polls, down to a miserable 13% in this one.

Well, actually, the story portrays the Cons as losing the most:

32 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, a drop of five percentage points;

13 per cent would support the NDP under Jack Layton, down by two percentage points;

I think they should lean how to poll better.

Any riding outside of the city center is conservative. This goes for Ontario.

If they are concentrating all their calls to 416, 613, and 905 then of course you're going to see Liberals/NDP getting the nod. I suggest they call in proportian to polical riding.

[Vancouver King]

Here's a variable that should put a lump in every Tory throat: What if a recession rears it's ugly head before the next election?

Perhaps someone should start another thread where we estimate the additional erosion in Tory support.

[Argus]

It was inevitable that the Liberals would get a bump up due to the massive favourable publicity they got from their nomination process.

Oh of course, that goes without saying and it's mentioned in the story. This is an AWFULLY BIG bump though, and I would be surprised if it were all due to the convention.

An interesting factor you're not mentioning is that most of the Liberals' newfound support is coming from the NDP, not the Tories. Jack Layton and his party have collapsed in the recent polls, down to a miserable 13% in this one.

Well, actually, the story portrays the Cons as losing the most:

32 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, a drop of five percentage points;

13 per cent would support the NDP under Jack Layton, down by two percentage points;

But that 2% coming on top of earlier falls is a much bigger drop to the NDP. And now they're down to 10%.

[normanchateau]

"Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said the surge in Liberal support appears to be largely driven by gains in the traditional heartland of Ontario, where the party has the support of 45 per cent of voters, compared to 35 per cent for the Tories; and in Quebec, where the Liberals stand at 30 per cent, compared to 43 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and 18 per cent for the Conservatives.

In B.C., the Liberals would get the support of 39 per cent of voters, compared to 26 per cent for the Tories and 24 per cent for the NDP.

"He would probably sweep Ontario," Bricker said of Dion.

"It just shows you that what happened in the last election isn't that the Conservatives won it, but that the Liberals lost it. So there's a real desire to have an alternative to Stephen Harper, especially among voters in Ontario. "

Moreover, Bricker says the poll appears to disprove the perception Dion would be a hard sell among Quebec voters."

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...ac-eecf9259425b

This is good news indeed for British Columbia Westerners. It's the first poll I've noticed since 2005 in which the Liberals are now ahead of the Conservatives in British Columbia. It also shows that in British Columbia, almost all of the huge surge in Liberal support has been at the expense of the Conservatives with much smaller losses in NDP support.

It probably doesn't hurt Stephane Dion that his National Campaign Director is British Columbian Mark Marissen who also ran Dion's campaign for the Liberal leadership.

Stephen Harper lost seats in both of the last two federal elections in BC. He's now poised to lose far more. Even in January, 2006, the number of seats won by CPC in BC was far greater than the CPC percentage of the popular vote because the Liberals and NDP split the non-rightwing vote. Other than Quebec, is there any province in Canada where the Conservatives are now less popular than in BC?

Here's a prediction. Not only will the Liberals sweep BC, David Emerson won't run in that election. "De-elect Emerson" lawn signs remain throughout his riding. As a very strong proponent of increased trade with China, same sex marriage and government-funded heroin injection sites in Vancouver, he has distanced himself from Harper. And his betrayal of the BC softwood lumber industry won't win him or Harper votes in BC. And if Harper were to try to make softwood lumber an election issue in BC, it would receive the same incredulous response as his stand on permanent criminal records and jail time for marijuana possession.

[Figleaf]

If they are concentrating all their calls to 416, 613, and 905 then of course you're going to see Liberals/NDP getting the nod. I suggest they call in proportian to polical riding.

I think most professional polling firms know that.

[normanchateau]

If they are concentrating all their calls to 416, 613, and 905 then of course you're going to see Liberals/NDP getting the nod. I suggest they call in proportian to polical riding.

I think most professional polling firms know that.

Yes they do and that's why the huge surge in popularity for the Liberals in the West...British Columbia in particular. No wonder David Emerson rarely shows his face in Vancouver.