Liberals poll even with Conservatives

gerryhatrick · November 9, 2006

Tories led nationally but trailed Grits everywhere outside Alberta: poll
Bruce Cheadle, Canadian Press

Published: Wednesday, November 08, 2006

OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests Alberta was the only remaining bastion of federal Conservative party support, with the leaderless Liberals leading the Tories in every other region of the country.

The survey of 1,026 Canadians by Decima Research was taken in the four days after the Conservative government's controversial decision last week to break an election promise and tax income trusts.

The Conservatives were still ahead nationally, with 31 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, according to the Decima poll. The Liberals were next with 28 per cent, followed by the NDP at 18, the Bloc Quebecois at 10 and the Green party at nine per cent.

The poll, taken between Nov. 2 and Nov. 5, is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national...998&k=97186

This is more indicitive of the income trust reaction than the last poll that came out.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

This is more indicitive of the income trust reaction than the last poll that came out.

Just as the last poll on Afghanistan last week showed what support was following the Karzai visit.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.h...dbb&k=30460

"A recent opinion poll (November 5) for CanWest News Service found that only 44 per cent said they supported the use of Canadian soldiers for security and combat efforts against the Taliban and al-Qaida in Afghanistan."

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

The Conservatives were still ahead nationally, with 31 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, according to the Decima poll. The Liberals were next with 28 per cent, followed by the NDP at 18, the Bloc Quebecois at 10 and the Green party at nine per cent.
The poll, taken between Nov. 2 and Nov. 5, is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national...998&k=97186

This is more indicitive of the income trust reaction than the last poll that came out.

There ya go Ricki Bobbi, it's already showing. Doubt me if you wish but alot of Canadians lost money. And since most seniors vote (compared to the youngins that don't invest), it's a double kick in the pants for the CPC.

Really really poor judgement on this one Jim and Stephen.

Canadian Blue · November 9, 2006

I have more trust in the Ipsos Reid poll, so far they have been more consistent in recent years in terms of actual election results. Besides a poll done now can't say as much about whats going to happen in an election. Remember the 93 election.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

I have more trust in the Ipsos Reid poll, so far they have been more consistent in recent years in terms of actual election results. Besides a poll done now can't say as much about whats going to happen in an election. Remember the 93 election.

Why is a Decima a bad polling agency? The Conservatives use them themselves from time to time for internal polling.

Cameron · November 9, 2006

1,026 Canadians, wow....that's a lot. Wonder if they called a bunch of Liberals.

I take polls with a grain of salt. Even if they are for Conservatives.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

1,026 Canadians, wow....that's a lot. Wonder if they called a bunch of Liberals.
I take polls with a grain of salt. Even if they are for Conservatives.

I guess the Tories could call an election to test the theory those numbers are wrong.

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

1,026 Canadians, wow....that's a lot. Wonder if they called a bunch of Liberals.

I take polls with a grain of salt. Even if they are for Conservatives.

I guess the Tories could call an election to test the theory those numbers are wrong.

They will soon after the new Liberal leader is elected. Another January vote IMO.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

They will soon after the new Liberal leader is elected. Another January vote IMO.

Let me be the first one to say: Brrr!!!

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

They will soon after the new Liberal leader is elected. Another January vote IMO.

Let me be the first one to say: Brrr!!!

Liberal minority government. Dangerous for the winner of the leadership, could sink or swim. Maybe Kennedy best hold off until after things settle and support Dion... though I doubt if Dion could win a minority... so it's a tough call.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

Liberal minority government. Dangerous for the winner of the leadership, could sink or swim. Maybe Kennedy best hold off until after things settle and support Dion... though I doubt if Dion could win a minority... so it's a tough call.

CTV is saying Rae and Kennedy are talking.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

Liberal minority government. Dangerous for the winner of the leadership, could sink or swim. Maybe Kennedy best hold off until after things settle and support Dion... though I doubt if Dion could win a minority... so it's a tough call.

CTV is saying Rae and Kennedy are talking.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Does the party realise that Kennedy is the only big seat gainer in Ontario... the only place they are going to gain anything?

He can appeal to the 905. Or do they risk Rae and lose big?

Cameron · November 9, 2006

It's amazing watching a conversation by two agreeing people....

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

Does the party realise that Kennedy is the only big seat gainer in Ontario... the only place they are going to gain anything?
He can appeal to the 905. Or do they risk Rae and lose big?

I like Kennedy. The one two punch of Kennedy and Rae might be one way to get Quebec and Ontario. I don't know. I have no insights on how this will all play out. Ignatieff might win and then need Dion, Kennedy and Rae to actually make his party work.

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

It's amazing watching a conversation by two agreeing people....

jdobbin and I rarely agree. If me, a small-c conservative/libertarian type and a statist liberal can agree on a candidate (Kennedy) to run this country... I'm on board with this.

Does the party realise that Kennedy is the only big seat gainer in Ontario... the only place they are going to gain anything?

He can appeal to the 905. Or do they risk Rae and lose big?

I like Kennedy. The one two punch of Kennedy and Rae might be one way to get Quebec and Ontario. I don't know. I have no insights on how this will all play out. Ignatieff might win and then need Dion, Kennedy and Rae to actually make his party work.

If Iggy wins the party is back to square one, he has no traction to gain votes, his momentum is spent. Kennedy learned all about peaking too soon in the Ontario leadership contest, he won't make that same mistake twice.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

It's amazing watching a conversation by two agreeing people....

I have no idea if the Liberals would win if an election were called today. All I know is that skepticism on Canada's foreign policy started with the Liberals and that skepticism hasn't stopped yet. However, now the Conservatives are having to explain our policies and that skepticism is now reflecting negatively for them.

As far as domestic policies, gun control and same sex marriage are divisive issues, especially in Quebec, a province that Tories need to make gains in.

Harper could turn things around but it requires a winning domestic policy. I don't know what the policy is yet but it can't just play on Canada's fears, it will have to appeal to Canada's desires too.

Waiting lists is a big thing still left undone of the five promises. Maybe they can work on that.

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

Waiting lists is a big thing still left undone of the five promises. Maybe they can work on that.

It'd have to be a pretty dramatic reform to have much national traction.

Telling me I only need to wait 6 weeks instead of 8 to get my hip replaced is doing nothing for me. (Not that I need a hip replacement).

Cameron · November 9, 2006

You know, this is what gets me....The Cons. have been in power since Jan, not even a year. Everyone wants them to pull a miracle out of their ass. The Libs were in for 14 years and accomplish some things, and didn't accomplish others. All of a sudden the Cons. are in power and everyone wants the country to change overnight.

Policy takes time. And it's even more difficult working with a slim minority. If you want the Cons. to show some results, give them a four year term.

I don't care who runs the Liberals, it's still filled with bad apples. They need to sit out the next few.

Canadian Blue · November 9, 2006

The only two Liberal leadership candidates I would consider voting for are Kennedy and Marth Hall Findlay. Unfortunately neither one will win. The only problem with Kennedy is that his french isn't good enough and he never got enough support in Quebec. But I'd think he would be better then the alternatives.

But needless to say, the Liberals need to be set straight. They think they have a god given right to govern this country due to percieved arrogance. They need to sit the next four years out. The sky isn't falling like many lefties say it is, and the current government is doing just fine. No deficit, thats about all it takes for Canadian's to not kick out a government. It's worked for the past 14 years.

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

Cam and CB,

I completely agree. That's why the only Liberal Party I'd vote for is one led by Kennedy. He's not an old Liberal, not connected in the inner-circles of Chretien and Martin. Real change there.

And I'm not mad that the Conservatives haven't accomplished alot. I'm mad becuase they've done an about face on taxation issues, and various appointments. Harper has failed us. He's shown us that Liberal or CPC, they are the same bag of crooks. Personally, I'll vote for the liars and backstabbers that give me a taxcut.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

jdobbin and I rarely agree. If me, a small-c conservative/libertarian type and a statist liberal can agree on a candidate (Kennedy) to run this country... I'm on board with this.
If Iggy wins the party is back to square one, he has no traction to gain votes, his momentum is spent. Kennedy learned all about peaking too soon in the Ontario leadership contest, he won't make that same mistake twice.

I don't know how statist I am. I disagreed with the NEP, the gun registry as well as PetroCanada. I certainly am not a social statist type either. I don't think same sex marriage is an issue as long as it is between two consenting adults.

I don't have a favourite amongst the Liberal candidates. I don't know the front runners all that well. If I had gone to the convention, I would have gone as an independent delegate and waited until meeting some of them, listening up close to their vision and policies and then made a choice.

As I said, I like Kennedy and where he comes from. I don't know that he has the chops to take the party all the way nor the contacts and knowledge of Quebec to do great there.

MightyAC · November 9, 2006

Politicians aren't actually idiots despite what political geeks like us espouse on a regular basis. I don't like Harper much at all but he is a smart, cunning, calculating man. They knew they'd loose some ground over the big IT lie and they know they can buy back some votes with tax cuts. They have already thrown the geriatriacs a nice soft, easy to digest bone in full pension splitting. They will likely follow that with the capital gains promise from a year ago....and thanks to a Liberal like surplus they may even squeak in another 1 point GST cut. Harper has successfully burried the "Hot Air Act" in committee, so they can still pretend they are trying to save the environment. Now all they need is a vote for the status quo on SSM and they're back in the game...provided Harper can keep the socons quiet afterwards....but then again he is great at telling the boys what to say and think. The boys in blue seem to be on their heels now, but they'll be battling for another minority next spring.

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

The boys in blue seem to be on their heels now, but they'll be battling for another minority next spring.

I'd love a majority either way. I'm kind of sick of election time posturing non-stop.

jdobbin · November 9, 2006

It'd have to be a pretty dramatic reform to have much national traction.
Telling me I only need to wait 6 weeks instead of 8 to get my hip replaced is doing nothing for me. (Not that I need a hip replacement).

It is a tough one to handle sure enough. I know that the government has to be innovative though and work well with the provinces. That isn't beyond the ability of the Feds to do. The provinces will only want the money though and tell the Feds to butt out. We've seen this before and often the provinces just sit on the money or use it for stuff it was not designated for. We can't let that happen this time around.

It was a Conservative promise. One of their top five. If they do it well, they could win the next election.

geoffrey · November 9, 2006

It'd have to be a pretty dramatic reform to have much national traction.

Telling me I only need to wait 6 weeks instead of 8 to get my hip replaced is doing nothing for me. (Not that I need a hip replacement).

It is a tough one to handle sure enough. I know that the government has to be innovative though and work well with the provinces. That isn't beyond the ability of the Feds to do. The provinces will only want the money though and tell the Feds to butt out. We've seen this before and often the provinces just sit on the money or use it for stuff it was not designated for. We can't let that happen this time around.

It was a Conservative promise. One of their top five. If they do it well, they could win the next election.

I disagree. Let the provinces spend it as they wish. Their voters will deal with them provincially.